Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 06, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAntonio Filosa - CEOEd Ditmire - Head of Investor RelationsEmmanuel Rosner - Managing DirectorHenning Cosman - European Head of Automotive ResearchHorst Schneider - Head of European Automotive ResearchJose Asumendi - Head of Global Autos and European Autos Equity ResearchJoão Laranjo - CFOPatrick Hummel - Head of European Autos ResearchStuart Pearson - Head of Automotive and Mobility ResearchThomas Besson - Head o ...

Core Insights - Community banks are navigating a challenging environment characterized by changing interest rates, stricter regulations, and a focus on funding stability and credit discipline [1] - Blue Ridge Bankshares, Inc. (BRBS) and AmeriServ Financial, Inc. (ASRV) are highlighted as community-focused institutions with different operating models affecting their risk-return profiles [1][2] Company Overview - BRBS operates primarily through Blue Ridge Bank and is transitioning away from fintech activities to a more traditional community banking model [1] - ASRV is anchored by AmeriServ Financial Bank and has a long-standing wealth management and trust operation, enhancing its fee-based income alongside lending and deposits [1] Business Strategies - BRBS is simplifying its business model and strengthening governance through a bank-first strategy, while ASRV focuses on a relationship-driven approach supported by advisory and trust services [2] - Both companies are positioned to benefit from improved operating stability over time, but their risk-reward profiles differ [2] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, BRBS has underperformed with a 1.4% increase, while ASRV has risen by 9.3% [3] - In the past year, BRBS stock has increased by 28.5%, compared to ASRV's 20.2% gain [3] Valuation Metrics - BRBS has a trailing 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.71X, above its three-year median of 1.14X, while ASRV's P/S ratio is 0.62X, above its median of 0.58X [4] - Both companies appear undervalued compared to the Zacks Finance sector average of 7.11X [4] Factors Supporting BRBS - BRBS's stock is bolstered by a strategic reset that reduces complexity and narrows its risk footprint, focusing on traditional community banking fundamentals [7] - The company is making progress on regulatory compliance and governance, which is expected to enhance market confidence over time [8] - Shareholder confidence is reinforced through capital deployment actions, including a special cash dividend and share repurchase program [9] Factors Supporting ASRV - ASRV benefits from a stable, relationship-driven deposit base that is largely independent of wholesale funding, allowing it to navigate rate volatility effectively [10] - The company's wealth and trust platform diversifies income and strengthens customer relationships, supported by a strategic alliance with Federated Hermes [11] - ASRV emphasizes disciplined execution and operational efficiency, which supports a consistent earnings profile [12] Investment Outlook - While both companies are positioned to benefit from improving rate dynamics, BRBS is seen as better positioned due to its strategic reset and positive momentum [13] - BRBS's valuation remains attractive compared to sector levels, suggesting potential for upside if execution continues to improve [14] - ASRV, while performing well, has seen its stock price rise above its long-term valuation norm, narrowing its margin of safety [14]

Group 1 - BP has agreed to sell a 65% shareholding in its lubricants business Castrol for $6 billion, valuing the unit at $10.1 billion [1][2] - The sale is part of BP's strategic reset, which includes a green strategy U-turn and a plan to divest $20 billion of assets by the end of 2027 [1][2] - Interim CEO Carol Howle stated that this sale contributes to over half of the targeted $20 billion divestment program, significantly strengthening BP's balance sheet [2] Group 2 - The sale is seen as a milestone in BP's reset strategy, aimed at reducing complexity and focusing on leading integrated businesses [3]

Core Viewpoint - Puma has secured over 600 million euros in financing to support its transformation efforts amid challenges in its business performance [1][2]. Financing Details - The financing includes a bridge loan of 500 million euros and additional confirmed credit lines of 108 million euros, aimed at providing interim liquidity [1][2]. - The bridge loan is underwritten by Santander Corporate & Investment Banking and both financing facilities have a maturity of up to 2 years [2]. Business Performance - Puma reported a 10.4 percent decline in organic sales in the third quarter, totaling 1.96 billion euros, with EBIT falling by over 80 percent [4]. - The company is undergoing a strategic "reset" to address challenges such as muted brand momentum, high inventory levels, and low distribution quality [4]. Strategic Outlook - The CFO of Puma emphasized that the new financing will enhance financial flexibility and support the company's ambition to become a top three sports brand globally [3]. - There is ongoing speculation regarding potential acquisition interest in Puma from rivals and investment firms, which has positively impacted its share price [5].

Core Insights - Southwest Airlines (LUV) stock has experienced a continuous rise for 8 days, resulting in a cumulative return of 17% and an increase in market capitalization by approximately $2.4 billion, bringing it to around $20 billion [2][3] - The stock is currently 23.3% higher than its level at the end of 2024, while the S&P 500 has returned 17.3% year-to-date [2] - The recent momentum is attributed to optimism surrounding a strategic reset, which may involve introducing first-class seating and forming new international alliances [3] Financial Performance - Analyst calls, such as Morgan Stanley's price target of $48, indicate growing confidence in Southwest Airlines' shift towards a more revenue-focused operating model, despite adjustments to earlier profit forecasts [3] - The company operates scheduled passenger air transport across the U.S. and nearby international regions with a fleet of 728 Boeing 737 aircraft serving 121 destinations [5] Market Context - There are currently 116 S&P 500 companies with winning streaks of 3 days or more, indicating a broader trend of positive momentum in the market [6] - Investing in a single stock like LUV without thorough analysis can be risky, as highlighted by the performance of the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which has historically outperformed its benchmark [7]

Core Insights - Volkswagen AG has reduced the cost of developing electric vehicles (EVs) for the Indian market to approximately $700 million from the previous estimate of $1 billion, reflecting a strategic shift in its investment approach due to low market share of around 2% after nearly two decades of operations [2][10][12] - The company is actively seeking domestic partners, including discussions with an Indian contract manufacturer and the JSW Group, to share investment and risks, especially after previous talks with Mahindra & Mahindra collapsed [1][3][10] - Volkswagen's India-specific EV launch is anticipated in 2028, with the company also considering short-term alternatives such as importing electric cars if trade agreements between the EU and India facilitate such shipments [5][10] Investment Strategy - The cost-cutting measures are part of a broader recalibration of investments by global automakers across various markets, including India, China, and Western regions [7][12] - Despite significant investments over the years, Volkswagen has struggled to gain substantial market share in India, where local competitors like Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai dominate with affordable offerings [8][12] - The company is prioritizing a partnership model to unlock further internal funding, indicating a shift towards collaboration in a challenging market environment [10][12] Regulatory Environment - With stricter carbon-emission norms set to take effect in India by 2027, car manufacturers are under increasing pressure to transition to cleaner technologies [4][10] - Volkswagen's strategic reset aims to maintain relevance in one of the fastest-growing automotive markets while addressing rising investment pressures and the need for cleaner mobility solutions [9][12]

Core Insights - Portillo's Inc. is undergoing a strategic reset due to rapid expansion in new markets, particularly in Texas, leading to a focus on profitability rather than aggressive development [2][4] Group 1: Strategic Changes - The company plans to space out new restaurant openings to avoid market cannibalization and enhance customer experiences [3] - In 2026, Portillo's intends to open eight additional restaurants, including some in Texas, despite the desire to reconsider certain openings [3] Group 2: Operational Adjustments - Portillo's will introduce a smaller restaurant format to improve unit economics and operational flexibility [4] - The company is facing a 2.2% decline in transactions, which is being offset by increased menu prices [5] Group 3: Marketing and Brand Awareness - To address traffic issues, Portillo's will enhance marketing efforts and loyalty promotions, particularly in new markets [5] - The company aims to leverage affiliate marketing, catering, and delivery partnerships to increase brand awareness and customer trials [6] Group 4: Communication Challenges - Portillo's acknowledges difficulties in effectively communicating its brand to new customers unfamiliar with the company [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for Q3 2025 were $181.4 million, an increase of $3.2 million or 1.8% year-over-year, driven by non-comparable restaurants [13] - Same restaurant sales declined by 0.8%, resulting in a revenue decrease of approximately $1.2 million, attributed to a 2.2% decrease in transactions, partially offset by a 1.4% increase in average check [13] - Restaurant-level Adjusted EBITDA decreased by $5.3 million to $36.7 million, with margins dropping 330 basis points to 20.2% [17] - Adjusted EBITDA was $21.4 million, a decrease of 23.4% from the prior year [19] - Cash from operations decreased by 32.3% year-over-year to $48.7 million year-to-date [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced pressures on margins from non-comparable restaurants, with restaurant-level Adjusted EBITDA margins estimated to be in the range of 21%-21.5% for 2025 [17] - Other operating expenses increased by $2.3 million or 10.8% compared to the prior year, primarily due to new restaurant openings and increased repair and maintenance costs [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company plans to open eight restaurants in 2026, with a focus on gradual growth and avoiding cannibalization in existing markets [31] - The company is leveraging affiliate marketing and catering to expand reach in new markets [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a strategic reset, slowing development in 2025 and 2026, and focusing on delivering an outstanding guest experience [6][7] - A smaller-format restaurant model is being deployed to achieve good unit economics with sales of $4 million to $5 million [9] - The company aims to drive more transactions through its unique menu offerings and the Portillo's Perks Loyalty Program [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's growth potential, citing strong customer demand in new markets [4] - The company anticipates commodity inflation of 3%-5% in 2025, with significant pressures coming from beef prices [14][35] - The effective tax rate for the full year is expected to be approximately 21%-23% [20] Other Important Information - The company recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $2.2 million related to the Barnelli's trade name [18] - The company ended the quarter with $17.2 million in cash and $323 million in total net debt [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Marketing efficacy and strategy moving forward - Management acknowledged the need to drive trial and awareness in newer markets and emphasized ongoing marketing investments in both new and core markets [22][24] Question: Pricing strategy and value perception - Management indicated that current pricing is below industry inflation rates and emphasized the importance of driving traffic into restaurants [26][27] Question: Development plans for 2026 - Management confirmed plans to open eight restaurants in 2026, with a focus on gradual growth and potential expansion in new markets [30][31] Question: Commodity costs and labor inflation - Management noted ongoing pressures on beef costs and confirmed labor inflation guidance of 3%-4% for the year [33][35] Question: Consumer behavior and marketing efforts in Texas - Management reported no noticeable shifts in consumer behavior by demographic cohorts but emphasized focused marketing efforts in Texas to drive brand awareness [45][48]

Core Insights - Portillo's has initiated a "strategic reset" of its growth plans, focusing on core markets, enhancing unit economics, and discontinuing its breakfast pilot in Chicago [1][5] - The company has revised its full-year same-store sales outlook to a decline of -1.5% to -1%, down from a previous forecast of 1% to 3% [1] - Portillo's plans to open eight new units this fiscal year, a reduction from the earlier target of 12 [1] Strategic Focus Areas - The company aims to drive sustainable traffic through consistent service and value, and to pursue disciplined development with a focus on strong unit economics and efficient capital deployment [2] - Key priorities include driving transactions by reinforcing value and service, simplifying operations, and optimizing capital deployment to achieve positive free cash flow by 2026 [8] Market Context - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with limited-service traffic down 1.2% in August compared to the previous year, influenced by competitors like McDonald's [3] - Portillo's has acknowledged a slow start in new markets, particularly Texas, and is increasing marketing investments to boost brand awareness [5] Leadership Changes - Denise Lauer has been appointed as the new Chief Marketing Officer, effective September 22, bringing experience from her previous roles at Marco's Pizza and other brands [6][7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Statutory NPAT for FY 2025 was $28.1 million, including $52.3 million in post-tax significant items, reflecting a challenging year [40] - Pro forma NPAT decreased by 8.4% to $80.4 million, with group revenue declining by 1.5% [40][41] - EBITDA grew by 5.2% year-over-year, despite a decline in pro forma impact by 8.4% [7][40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Trade business revenue grew by 1.3% and EBITDA by 5.4%, while Specialist Wholesale saw a decline in revenue by 3.2% but an increase in EBITDA by 5.2% [24][25][30] - Retail revenue declined by 3.5%, with a significant impact from lower discretionary spending and higher operating costs [32][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - New Zealand's revenue declined by 3.2% in Australian dollar terms, reflecting challenging economic conditions [35] - The company experienced a shift away from discretionary retail spending, impacting overall revenue performance [24][32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company outlined six strategic imperatives: optimizing the network, one supply chain, customer focus, digitalizing the business, store fitness, and simplifying the business [14][50] - A strategic reset is underway, focusing on long-term sustainable profitability and cultural changes within the organization [5][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in FY 2025 but expressed confidence in the company's ability to recover and grow in FY 2026 [6][51] - The focus will be on driving organic growth and improving operational efficiency through supply chain enhancements and digitization [51][52] Other Important Information - The company declared a final dividend of $0.55 per share, representing a full-year payout ratio of 57% [11] - Significant changes in the balance sheet were made to ensure financial clarity moving into FY 2026 [42][45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for the trade segment and recovery focus - Management emphasized the importance of recovery in the trade segment, linking it to overall group strategy and sales performance [55][56] Question: Cost allocation and expectations for FY 2026 - Management indicated that a significant reorganization is underway, and clarity on cost allocations will be provided in future quarters [58] Question: Expectations for achieving sales CAGR and EBITDA CAGR - Management committed to providing updates on progress towards five-year goals as results are reported, without giving specific guidance for FY 2026 [61] Question: Impact of loyalty program on sales - Management acknowledged the early stages of the loyalty program and its potential impact on sales, but specific metrics were not available [70][72] Question: Market share trends in trade and retail - Management noted that while market share was stable over the year, there were periods of decline, particularly in May and June [90] Question: Plans for store closures and profitability - Management confirmed ongoing evaluations of store performance and plans to close underperforming locations as necessary [102][105]