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盛松成:降息仍有空间
和讯· 2025-09-19 09:28
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that China's monetary policy is shifting towards reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts instead of aggressive interest rate reductions, aiming to protect bank interest margins and maintain indirect financing channels while allowing for gradual interest rate decreases and innovative structural tools to stabilize finance and promote transformation [2] Group 2 - Since 2016, China has adjusted the RRR 23 times, all downward, with the RRR for large deposit-taking financial institutions decreasing from 17.5% to 9.0%, a total drop of 8.5 percentage points [3] - The policy interest rates have only been adjusted 14 times since 2016, indicating a preference for RRR cuts over significant interest rate reductions [3][4] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.42%, the lowest in history, highlighting the importance of maintaining this margin for the stability of the banking sector [4] Group 3 - RRR cuts will increase the funds available for commercial banks, enabling better support for proactive fiscal policies, as approximately 68% of national debt and 75% of local government debt are held by commercial banks [5] - The effectiveness of monetary policy is largely dependent on the cooperation of commercial banks and the financial system, especially given the low excess reserve ratio in China [5] Group 4 - There is still room for interest rate cuts in China, but the low elasticity of consumption and investment to interest rates limits the effectiveness of sustained large cuts [6] - The decrease in interest rates has led to a reduction in household deposits, with a drop of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating a significant relationship between declining interest rates and reduced household savings [6][7] - Structural monetary policy tools have been increasingly important, with innovations supporting weak economic sectors and key areas such as technology innovation and green development [7]
事关货币政策,政府工作报告最新定调!
21世纪经济报道· 2025-03-05 15:21
南方财经全媒体集团全国两会报道组 作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨张华曦 3月5日,十四届全国人大三次会议在人民大会堂开幕。国务院总理李强代表国务院,向十四届 全国人大三次会议作《政府工作报告》(下称《报告》)。 《报告》回顾了过去一年货币政策的施行状况,提到因时因势加强和创新宏观调控,实施有力 的财政货币政策,扩大支出规模,加强重点领域财力保障,两次下调存款准备金率和政策利 率,社会融资成本进一步降低。 《报告》明确了2 0 2 5年货币政策方面的总体要求和政策取向: 一方面,要实施适度宽松的货币政策,发挥好货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能,适时降准 降息,保持流动性充裕,使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标 相匹配。 另一方面,优化和创新结构性货币政策工具,更大力度促进楼市股市健康发展,进一步疏通货 币政策传导渠道,完善利率形成和传导机制,落实无还本续贷政策,强化融资增信和风险分担 等支持措施。同时,推动社会综合融资成本下降,提升金融服务可获得性和便利度。 广发证券首席经济学家郭磊分析称,《报告》中提到 "适时降准降息",这意味着后续或依然存 在降息降准的时间窗口。 "优化和创新结构性货币 ...