South Africa needs to fast-track structural reforms to cushion the economy from the effects of US President Donald Trump’s punishing tariffs, the country’s central bank said https://t.co/C0MJhkJEr9 ...

South Africa’s gradual structural reforms are breathing life into the economy, but aren’t sufficient to lift the growth rate to the government’s 3.5% target, according to Moody’s Ratings https://t.co/OKexgJ3oZZ ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China’s Economic Sentiment and Domestic Demand - **Date**: September 24, 2025 - **Source**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Core Insights 1. **Domestic Demand Cooling**: Domestic demand in China is slowing more than expected, attributed to a fading fiscal impulse and reduced effectiveness of consumer goods trade-in programs. The growth rate for Q3 GDP is projected at 4.5%[5][6][7] 2. **Exports Remain Firm**: Despite domestic demand cooling, exports are holding steady, with a year-over-year growth of 10.4% in container throughput as of the third week of September, largely due to a low base from adverse weather last year[4][5] 3. **Commodity Prices**: The anti-involution impulse is fading, leading to a short-lived rise in commodity prices. However, this increase may not be sustainable as rising costs for downstream firms may not be passed on to final demand[3][5] 4. **Policy Stance**: The Chinese government is expected to implement modest, targeted quasi-fiscal support rather than large-scale stimulus. This includes potential funding for infrastructure and settling local government payables[5][7] 5. **Cyclical Policy Measures**: Anticipated quasi-fiscal easing measures include Rmb500 billion in new policy-based financial instruments for local infrastructure investment and tapping into policy bank loans to help local governments settle payables, which could total Rmb5-10 trillion[7][5] 6. **Reform Discussions**: The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to discuss structural reforms related to cadre evaluations, tax systems, and social insurance systems, which are crucial for stabilizing inflation expectations and unlocking household savings[7][5] Additional Important Points 1. **Retail Growth Decline**: Retail growth in sectors such as autos and home appliances has cooled further in September, influenced by a high base effect and the diminishing impact of trade-in programs[6][20] 2. **Property Market**: Property sales and construction activities remain subdued, with year-over-year growth for housing sales expected to decline due to base effects[6][5] 3. **Container Throughput Divergence**: There is a notable divergence in performance between exports to the US and other regions, with US-bound shipments showing little change[4][12][14] 4. **High Frequency Data**: Recent high-frequency data indicates a negative sequential price momentum in major upstream sectors since mid-August, suggesting a potential downturn in commodity prices[3][8] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its implications for investment opportunities and risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Market - **Date**: September 1, 2025 - **Source**: Morgan Stanley Research Core Insights 1. **Household Savings Reallocation Potential**: There is a potential for Rmb6-7 trillion in household time deposits to be reallocated towards higher-risk investments, stemming from excess allocation during 2022-23 [3][4] 2. **Market Sentiment**: Initial signs indicate a heating up of the market, with margin financing as a percentage of A-share daily turnover surpassing levels seen in October 2024 [7] 3. **Macro Challenges**: Despite some positive narratives, the macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with continued growth slowdown indicated by the August PMI [12][14] 4. **Structural Reforms Needed**: The current fiscal system in China incentivizes overbuilding and overcapacity, necessitating reforms to realign macro targets and improve household consumption metrics [20][22] 5. **"5R" Reflation Strategy**: Incremental progress is expected by the end of 2025, focusing on rebalancing the economy through various policy measures, including a Rmb10 trillion fiscal package aimed at consumption [23] Additional Important Points 1. **Market Dynamics**: The margin transaction balance and its percentage of free float market cap remain stable, indicating cautious optimism among investors [9][10] 2. **Policy Shifts**: A more constructive narrative is forming around China's economic policies, influenced by evolving social dynamics and a pivot in policy direction since September 2024 [17][18] 3. **Consumption Focus**: There is a growing emphasis on consumption as a percentage of GDP, which may become a core policy metric in future economic planning [20] 4. **Inflation and Price Index Trends**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to pick up, but the pass-through of upstream price gains remains limited, indicating potential inflationary pressures [14][15] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese market.

Business Sentiment & Expectations - Companies report a flat and weak business situation [1] - Expectations are improving, anticipating increased government spending in the future [2] - Order intake and other indicators are not yet showing improvement [2] - Companies are increasing capacity in anticipation of government spending [4] Economic Challenges - German company insolvencies have reached the highest level since 2005 [3] - The housing and apartment sector remains weak [4] - GDP figures disappointed with a -0.0% [10] Trade Deal Assessment - The current trade deal is considered a humiliation for the EU, reflecting an imbalance of power [5] - The trade deal is worse than previous arrangements, posing a challenge to the German economy, estimated around 15% [6] - Companies do not fully trust the trade deal due to uncertainty and potential changes [7] Fiscal Stimulus & Reforms - A fiscal stimulus package targeting defense and infrastructure has been unveiled [8] - The stimulus is expected to have a positive impact next year [8] - The sustainability of the stimulus depends on complementary structural reforms [9][11] - Without structural reforms, the effects of government spending will be short-term and may lead to price increases [10][11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **Chinese economy** and its current macroeconomic challenges, particularly regarding **deflation** and the **anti-involution campaign** initiated by the Chinese government [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Chinese Inflation Trends**: While the US has experienced inflation above target, China has seen inflation below target, with the GDP deflator negative for nine consecutive quarters, indicating a risk of deflation [1]. - **Policy Shift**: The anti-involution campaign represents a significant policy pivot aimed at addressing deflation and overcapacity in the economy, moving away from traditional stimulus measures [1][2]. - **Industrial Landscape Changes**: The current industrial environment is characterized by a dominance of private enterprises in emerging sectors like solar, electric vehicles (EVs), and batteries, contrasting with the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) of the past [2]. - **Need for Market-Oriented Strategies**: The complexity of the current macro environment necessitates a more market-oriented approach to policy, rather than top-down mandates, to effectively consolidate supply in various sectors [2][3]. - **Production Cuts in SOE-Dominated Sectors**: Sectors with high SOE concentration, such as coal, steel, and cement, are already experiencing production cuts, following a historical precedent [3]. - **External Pressures**: Rising US tariffs and geopolitical fragmentation may accelerate the consolidation of domestic industries, pushing China towards higher value-added production [4]. - **Long-Term Reform Outlook**: Structural reforms are essential to address deflation, including recalibrating local incentives, revamping the tax system, and shifting the economic balance towards consumption [8]. Additional Important Content - **Gradual Implementation of Reforms**: The anticipated reforms are expected to be modest and flexible initially, with broader frameworks for the private sector to be established later in the year [3]. - **Consumption Subsidies**: Small steps such as consumption subsidies and targeted welfare support are part of the ongoing discussions to stimulate the economy [5][7]. - **Upcoming Five-Year Plan**: The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide more clarity on reform priorities, balancing industrial policies with the need for structural reforms [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy's current state and the implications of the anti-involution campaign, highlighting the need for strategic reforms and market-oriented policies to combat deflation and stimulate growth.

France needs structural reforms, not budget gimmicks, writes @LionelRALaurent (via @opinion) https://t.co/nHVFxWL0VD ...

Core Viewpoint - XP Inc. has released a more optimistic outlook for the Brazilian economy, projecting GDP growth of 2.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, up from previous forecasts of 2.0% and 1.0% respectively [1][2] Economic Indicators - The upward revision in GDP forecasts is attributed to strong job market performance, resilient household income, and recent federal government stimulus measures [2] - Key stimulus measures include additional funding for the "Minha Casa Minha Vida" housing program, payroll-deductible credit expansion, and fiscal incentives for low and middle-income households [2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation forecast remains at 6.0% for 2025, with a revision to 4.7% for 2026 due to higher growth expectations and potential inflationary effects from income tax reform [5] - The Brazilian Real (BRL) is forecasted to maintain a value of 6.00 per USD by year-end, although risks are associated with global trade disruptions and commodity price volatility [5] - The Chief Economist at XP emphasizes that while monetary policy is currently effective, achieving sustained inflation reduction and lower interest rates will require clarity on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms [3][4] Fiscal Challenges - XP projects that the Brazilian government will need to raise an additional BRL 110 billion (approximately USD 18.3 billion) in revenue to meet the surplus target for 2026, indicating ongoing fiscal balance challenges [5]