March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed up +0.17 (+1.15%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +1.50 (+0.35%). Sugar prices recovered from 1-week lows on Wednesday and settled higher on some year-end fund short covering.   Sugar prices initially fell on Wednesday after the dollar index (DXY00) rose to a 1-week high, weighing on most commodity prices, including sugar. More News from Barchart On Monday, NY sugar matched last Wednesday's 2.25-month high on expectations of smal ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.09 (+0.59%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is down -1.20 (-0.28%). Sugar prices are mixed today, with NY sugar matching last Wednesday's 2.25-month high.  Sugar prices have carryover support from last Tuesday when consulting firm Safras & Mercado said that Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 will fall -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26.  The firm expects Brazil's exports in 2026/27 to fall -11% y/y to 30 MMT. More News from Ba ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown recovery after early losses, supported by pre-weekend short covering and news from India's food ministry regarding ethanol pricing, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift focus to ethanol production [1][3] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +12 (+0.82%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +4.10 (+0.98%) [1] - Sugar prices have been consolidating below 3.5-week highs reached on Wednesday, indicating a period of stabilization after recent fluctuations [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry announced a reduction in sugar export quotas for the 2025/26 season to 1.5 million metric tons (MMT), down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, which is a response to reduced domestic supplies due to late rains [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, indicating a robust output that is bearish for prices [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The Brazilian real's weakness has limited sugar price increases, as it encourages export sales from Brazilian producers [2] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil has contributed to bearish sentiment in the market, with recent reports indicating significant increases in sugar production and crushing rates [5][6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery after early losses, driven by a stronger Brazilian real which has led to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent selloffs have pushed NY sugar prices to a 5-year low and London sugar to a 4.75-year low, primarily due to increased sugar production in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for 2025/26 has been revised upwards to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT, indicating a growing output [3] - In the first half of October, Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT), with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 48.24% from 47.33% [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT [3] India Sugar Production - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, contributing to a potentially bumper sugar crop [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [5]