Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are declining due to expectations of global surpluses and increased production, with specific forecasts indicating significant surpluses for the upcoming years [1][5]. Group 1: Global Sugar Production and Surplus - Green Pool Commodity Specialists project a global sugar surplus of 2.74 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season and a surplus of 156,000 metric tons for 2026/27 [1]. - Covrig Analytics has raised its estimate for the 2025/26 global sugar surplus to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT, but anticipates a decrease to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [5]. - Brazil's Conab has increased its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, contributing to the bearish outlook for prices [6]. Group 2: Regional Sugar Production Updates - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through December has risen by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 50.82% from 48.16% [2]. - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 for the 2025-26 season is reported to be up 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate raised to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Export Policies and Market Impact - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [4]. - The reduction in the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India from 5 MMT to 3.4 MMT may enhance the country's capacity to boost sugar exports [3].

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are declining due to expectations of global surpluses and increased production, with New York sugar reaching a 1.5-week low and London sugar hitting a 2.5-month low [1] Group 1: Global Sugar Production and Surplus - Green Pool Commodity Specialists project a global sugar surplus of 2.74 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26 and 156,000 metric tons for 2026/27 [1] - Covrig Analytics has raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT in October, but expects the surplus to decrease to 1.4 MMT in 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [5] - Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, increased its sugar production estimate for Brazil in 2025/26 to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT [6] Group 2: Regional Sugar Production Updates - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through December increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 50.82% in 2025/26 from 48.16% in 2024/25 [2] - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 for the 2025-26 season is up 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate raised to 31 MMT, an 18.8% increase year-on-year [3] Group 3: Export Policies and Market Impact - India's government may allow additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota of 1.5 MMT for the 2025/26 season already announced [4] - The reduction in sugar used for ethanol production in India from 5 MMT to 3.4 MMT may facilitate an increase in sugar exports [3]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with New York sugar showing modest gains while London sugar has fallen to a 2.5-month low due to various factors including currency fluctuations and global production levels [1][2]. Group 1: Sugar Production and Export Trends - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 million metric tons (MMT), with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [2]. - India's sugar output for the 2025-26 season has surged by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, prompting the Indian Sugar Mill Association to raise its production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [3]. - The Indian government is considering allowing additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota of 1.5 MMT set for the 2025-26 season [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Price Pressure - The global sugar surplus is projected to increase, with Covrig Analytics raising its estimate for the 2025-26 surplus to 4.7 MMT, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [5]. - Brazil's sugar production forecast has been raised to a record 45 MMT for the 2025-26 season, contributing to a bearish outlook for sugar prices [6].

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.17 (+1.15%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +1.50 (+0.35%) on Wednesday, recovering from 1-week lows due to year-end fund short covering [1] - Sugar prices initially fell on Wednesday as the dollar index rose to a 1-week high, impacting most commodity prices including sugar [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports anticipated to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [5] - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November increased by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Potential - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while cutting the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 MMT [3] - Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 31 jumped 24% year-on-year to 11.83 MMT [3] - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system introduced for sugar exports in the 2022/23 season [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with New York sugar reaching a 2.25-month high while London sugar prices are declining, influenced by production forecasts from Brazil and India [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to decrease by 3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to fall by 11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [1] - Conab has raised Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bullish outlook for production [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region increased by 1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT through November 2025/26 [4] Group 2: India's Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has increased its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [3] - Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 15, 2025-26 surged by 28% year-on-year to 7.83 MMT, contributing to a potential increase in exports [3] - India's food ministry has allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season to alleviate domestic supply issues [2] Group 3: Global Sugar Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in 2025-26, reversing a deficit of 2.916 million metric tons in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [5] - Global sugar production is projected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [5] - Sugar trader Czarnikow has revised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, an increase of 1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown recovery after early losses, supported by pre-weekend short covering and news from India's food ministry regarding ethanol pricing, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift focus to ethanol production [1][3] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +12 (+0.82%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +4.10 (+0.98%) [1] - Sugar prices have been consolidating below 3.5-week highs reached on Wednesday, indicating a period of stabilization after recent fluctuations [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry announced a reduction in sugar export quotas for the 2025/26 season to 1.5 million metric tons (MMT), down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, which is a response to reduced domestic supplies due to late rains [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, indicating a robust output that is bearish for prices [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The Brazilian real's weakness has limited sugar price increases, as it encourages export sales from Brazilian producers [2] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil has contributed to bearish sentiment in the market, with recent reports indicating significant increases in sugar production and crushing rates [5][6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery after early losses, driven by a stronger Brazilian real which has led to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent selloffs have pushed NY sugar prices to a 5-year low and London sugar to a 4.75-year low, primarily due to increased sugar production in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for 2025/26 has been revised upwards to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT, indicating a growing output [3] - In the first half of October, Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT), with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 48.24% from 47.33% [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT [3] India Sugar Production - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, contributing to a potentially bumper sugar crop [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [5]