Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown recovery after early losses, supported by pre-weekend short covering and news from India's food ministry regarding ethanol pricing, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift focus to ethanol production [1][3] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +12 (+0.82%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +4.10 (+0.98%) [1] - Sugar prices have been consolidating below 3.5-week highs reached on Wednesday, indicating a period of stabilization after recent fluctuations [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry announced a reduction in sugar export quotas for the 2025/26 season to 1.5 million metric tons (MMT), down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, which is a response to reduced domestic supplies due to late rains [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, indicating a robust output that is bearish for prices [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The Brazilian real's weakness has limited sugar price increases, as it encourages export sales from Brazilian producers [2] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil has contributed to bearish sentiment in the market, with recent reports indicating significant increases in sugar production and crushing rates [5][6]

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.12 (+0.85%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is up +1.50 (+0.36%). Sugar prices recovered from early losses today and moved higher as strength in the Brazilian real sparked short covering in sugar futures.  The real (^USDBRL) climbed to a 4-week high against the dollar today, discouraging export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart This latest month-long selloff in sugar knocked NY sugar prices to a 5-year nearest-fut ...