Summary of Key Takeaways from Tungsten and Moly Expert Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Tungsten and Molybdenum Mining - **Key Company**: China Diversified Metals & Mining Core Insights 1. **Tungsten Price Trends**: - SMM anticipates that the price of tungsten in China will remain high due to supply shortages, potentially peaking in September 2026 during the peak season [3][4] - The price surge is attributed to export controls imposed by China in February 2025, which led to increased overseas prices [2] 2. **Supply Dynamics**: - China holds 52% of global tungsten reserves and accounted for 83% of global tungsten output in 2024 [4] - The tungsten mining quota for China is expected to decrease to 107,000 tons (WO3) in 2025, down 7,000 tons year-over-year, with output projected at 108,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons year-over-year [4] - For 2026, the mining quota is expected to remain stable at 106,000 to 110,000 tons, with output slightly lower at 107,000 tons [4] 3. **New Projects**: - The Sangdong tungsten mine in Korea is set to begin operations in 2027, increasing capacity to 4,600 tons per annum (tpa) [5] - The Dolphin tungsten mine in Australia is also expected to start in 2027 with a capacity of 4,000 to 5,000 tpa [5] - Incremental tungsten supply is projected to be approximately 15,000 tons in 2027 [5] 4. **Demand Forecast**: - China's tungsten demand is expected to reach 83,700 tons in 2026, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, leading to a supply shortage of 4,800 tons [9] - Molybdenum demand is projected at 316,000 tons in 2026, with a supply shortage of 13,100 tons [9] 5. **Market Sentiment**: - The bullish sentiment surrounding tungsten is reinforced by environmental inspections in Jiangxi and depleting inventories, which have driven domestic prices higher [2] Additional Important Points - **APT Market**: APT (Ammonium Paratungstate) has been a significant driver of price increases in Q4 2025 due to low utilization ratios and maintenance activities [6] - **Strategic Metal Classification**: Tungsten is treated as a strategic metal by China, which is expected to limit significant increases in mining quotas despite rising prices [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the expert call regarding the tungsten and molybdenum markets, highlighting supply constraints, demand forecasts, and the implications for pricing and investment opportunities.

Group 1 - Copper has recorded its longest winning streak since 2017, rising 2.7% to settle at $12,558.50 a ton, marking the eighth consecutive day of gains driven by supply chain stress [1] - Copper futures have surged by over 40% this year, representing the largest annual increase since 2009, with a weaker US dollar contributing to the price rise [2] - Supply issues have significantly impacted the copper market, with mines in Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo facing accidents, while aluminum production is threatened by higher energy costs and supply limits in China [3] Group 2 - The potential for US import tariffs on copper is a major driver of market sentiment, with warnings of an extreme shortage of copper globally by 2026 [3] - Investor sentiment regarding US copper tariffs is expected to influence copper prices in the coming months, focusing on regional stock levels and material entering the US rather than global fundamentals [4] - Despite rising inventories in the US exchange, the premium for March copper futures on Comex has decreased, indicating a complex market situation influenced by macroeconomic outlook and supply risks [5] Group 3 - Other metals on the exchange, particularly nickel, have also seen price increases, driven by supply cut plans from top producer Indonesia [6]