Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year, reflecting the structural dilemma of the US economy amid trade protectionism and passive monetary policy responses [1] - The term "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) encapsulates the essence of the policy's inconsistency, highlighting a pattern of aggressive rhetoric followed by retreat in action [1] - The US's "America First" strategy has not effectively led to manufacturing return, with threats often remaining at the level of social media announcements rather than concrete actions [1][2] Group 2 - The imposition of tariff barriers has raised import costs in the short term but failed to achieve industrial return, instead increasing domestic inflation and weakening corporate competitiveness [2] - A Deloitte report indicates a significant shortage of skilled workers in the US manufacturing sector, with a projected 2.1 million job vacancies over the next eight years, highlighting deep structural issues in human capital and industrial ecology [2] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is seen as a necessary policy choice to alleviate growth pressures, having already cut rates by a total of 125 basis points since the end of the tightening cycle in September 2024 [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a complex decision-making environment, balancing the need for policy easing due to weak employment data and declining corporate investment against persistent inflation risks from previous tariffs and rising wages [3] - The intervention of political figures in monetary policy has led to a situation where aggressive promises often result in mild adjustments, reflecting a pattern of high-profile threats followed by low-key outcomes [3] - The misuse of trade policy by the US has prompted significant adjustments in global capital flows, with major foreign holders of US debt, such as China and Japan, reducing their holdings, indicating a lack of confidence in the US's long-term economic fundamentals [3] Group 4 - The "hegemonic stability theory" suggests that the maintenance of the international economic order relies on the relative strength and institutional credibility of the dominant country, which the US is currently undermining through unilateral actions [4] - The US's current tariff policies illustrate a shift from multilateral rules to unilateral pressure, resulting in a loss of credibility rather than a revival of industry [4] - The ongoing attempt to maintain dollar hegemony while pursuing protectionist policies is fundamentally unsustainable, as it leads to systemic risks and a loss of trust in US economic governance [4]