作者：Freda Duan （Partner@Alitmeter） 编译：Haozhen 近期 Claude Code 推出的 Excel 功能非常惊艳，我们认为 Excel 可能成为继 Coding 之后，下一个迎 来"aha moment"、并快速爆发的高价值领域。 本文是 Altiemeter 合伙人 Freda Duan 对 Coding 和 Excel 这两个 AI 垂直领域的深度解读，原文发布 于她的 Substack Robonomics。 简单来说，正如 Coding 凭借庞大的市场规模、向相邻场景自然延展的能力以及以产品驱动的 GTM 模式，迅速崛起为最强势的 AI 应用之一，Excel 也具备同样的条件： • 全球电子表格的 MAU 约为 15–16 亿； • Excel 可以延展至金融、运营、分析等场景，从某种角度看，大部分软件都可以被视为一层层叠加 在 Excel 之上的"Excel wrappers"； • Excel 可以通过用户自助完成快速采用（self-serve adoption）。 Coding 已经证明了这条路径下的爆发力，而 Excel 很可能是体量更大的下一站。 In ...

AI Revolution Thesis - Sequoia believes the AI revolution is comparable to the industrial revolution, presenting a significant transformation [1][2] - The cognitive revolution represents a $10 trillion (10 to the 13th power) opportunity [1][8] - Startups are crucial in specializing general AI technologies for specific applications [6] Commercial Opportunity - The AI-driven automation of the US services market, currently at approximately $20 billion, holds a $10 trillion potential [8] - The cognitive revolution can expand the market to include large, standalone public companies built around AI in the services space [12] Investment Trends - Work is shifting towards higher leverage (100+%) on tasks with less certainty in outcomes, requiring human correction [13][14][15] - Real-world measurement is becoming the new gold standard for proving AI excellence, surpassing academic benchmarks [15][16][17] - The industry forecasts at minimum a 10x increase in compute (flops) per knowledge worker, with optimistic views suggesting 1000x to 10,000x consumption [20] Investment Themes - Persistent memory, including long-term memory and consistent AI identity, is critical for AI's expansion into more work functions [21][22][23] - Seamless communication protocols between AIs, beyond initial protocols like MCP, will yield major applications [24][25] - AI voice is currently viable due to increased fidelity and decreased latency, with applications in both B2C and enterprise sectors [27][28][29] - AI security presents a huge opportunity across development, distribution, and user layers, potentially involving numerous AI security agents per person/agent [30][31][32][33] - Open source's ability to compete with state-of-the-art foundation models is critical for a free, open AI future [34][35][36]

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