RT Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI)I always assumed the TAM of ubiquitous technology such as the internet, crypto or AI was the population of the world. It isn't. AI agents will 2x the users of all of these in 5 years. Agents are more disruptive of TAM than they are of businesses.Your priors need adjustment. ...

I always assumed the TAM of ubiquitous technology such as the internet, crypto or AI was the population of the world. It isn't. AI agents will 2x the users of all of these in 5 years. Agents are more disruptive of TAM than they are of businesses.Your priors need adjustment. ...

Core Insights - The article posits that Excel may become the next high-value area to experience rapid growth, similar to Coding, due to its large market potential and self-serve adoption model [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Potential - Excel has a global monthly active user base of approximately 1.5 to 1.6 billion, indicating a vast total addressable market (TAM) [14][19] - The software industry is estimated to be around $1 trillion, with application software potentially accounting for about 50% of that, much of which can be seen as "Excel wrappers" [20] - The TAM for Coding is recognized to be around $2 trillion, showcasing the potential for Excel to tap into a similarly large market [7] Group 2: Adoption and Growth Model - Excel's adoption can largely rely on self-serve mechanisms, allowing users to quickly integrate and utilize the tool without extensive marketing efforts [4][13] - The financial sector is identified as a natural entry point for Excel's expansion, given the high profitability and willingness to invest in productivity tools among financial professionals [21][22] Group 3: Comparison with Coding - Both Excel and Coding share characteristics such as a large TAM, the ability to extend into adjacent use cases, and limited go-to-market costs due to self-serve adoption [13] - Coding has demonstrated explosive growth, and Excel is positioned to follow a similar trajectory, potentially even on a larger scale [3][6]

AI Revolution Thesis - Sequoia believes the AI revolution is comparable to the industrial revolution, presenting a significant transformation [1][2] - The cognitive revolution represents a $10 trillion (10 to the 13th power) opportunity [1][8] - Startups are crucial in specializing general AI technologies for specific applications [6] Commercial Opportunity - The AI-driven automation of the US services market, currently at approximately $20 billion, holds a $10 trillion potential [8] - The cognitive revolution can expand the market to include large, standalone public companies built around AI in the services space [12] Investment Trends - Work is shifting towards higher leverage (100+%) on tasks with less certainty in outcomes, requiring human correction [13][14][15] - Real-world measurement is becoming the new gold standard for proving AI excellence, surpassing academic benchmarks [15][16][17] - The industry forecasts at minimum a 10x increase in compute (flops) per knowledge worker, with optimistic views suggesting 1000x to 10,000x consumption [20] Investment Themes - Persistent memory, including long-term memory and consistent AI identity, is critical for AI's expansion into more work functions [21][22][23] - Seamless communication protocols between AIs, beyond initial protocols like MCP, will yield major applications [24][25] - AI voice is currently viable due to increased fidelity and decreased latency, with applications in both B2C and enterprise sectors [27][28][29] - AI security presents a huge opportunity across development, distribution, and user layers, potentially involving numerous AI security agents per person/agent [30][31][32][33] - Open source's ability to compete with state-of-the-art foundation models is critical for a free, open AI future [34][35][36]

Index Ventures’ Jahanvi Sardana shares the truth about TAM and what founders should focus on instead | TechCrunch https://t.co/cCyjlDJylO ...

Potential stablecoin consumer spend TAM could be as large as $41T https://t.co/pylkMEUekZ ...