Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights the promising pipeline of Connoa-B (02162), with its core product, Supacibab, already approved for market. The company is expanding its clinical trials for CM512 (TSLP/IL-13 bispecific antibody) and expects to submit an NDA for CMG901 in the U.S. by 2026. The company has a robust pipeline and is well-positioned for growth, receiving a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 83.29 [1]. Group 1: Product Pipeline and Market Potential - Supacibab is the first domestically produced IL-4R monoclonal antibody, providing a significant first-mover advantage. It targets various type II inflammatory diseases, with expectations for rapid market uptake post-2026 when it enters the national medical insurance directory [1]. - The global sales of Dupilumab, a competing IL-4R monoclonal antibody, exceeded USD 14 billion in 2024, indicating a strong market potential for Supacibab, which has already been approved for three indications [1]. - Sales projections for Supacibab are estimated at CNY 0.36 billion in 2024, CNY 1.69 billion in the first half of 2025, and expected to reach CNY 3.31 billion, CNY 9.05 billion, and CNY 16.27 billion from 2025 to 2027 [1]. Group 2: Clinical Development and Competitive Landscape - CM512 is currently in Phase II clinical trials and is positioned as the second globally in development, with significant differentiation advantages in the respiratory market. It targets asthma and COPD, with potential approval by 2029 [2]. - CMG901, a Claudin 18.2 ADC, has been licensed to AstraZeneca and is the fastest progressing globally. It is expected to complete Phase III trials for second-line gastric cancer by 2026 and submit for market approval, with potential milestone payments and royalties for the company [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 6.61 billion, CNY 12.55 billion, and CNY 20.64 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 54%, 90%, and 65% respectively [3]. - The net profit forecast shows a loss of CNY 5.13 billion in 2025, narrowing to a loss of CNY 2.97 billion in 2026, before turning to a profit of CNY 2.01 billion in 2027, with corresponding EPS of -1.72, -0.99, and 0.67 [3]. - A DCF valuation method has been applied, resulting in a target price of HKD 83.29, with an initial "Buy" rating assigned [3].

核心产品司普奇拜单抗为首个国产IL-4R单抗，先发优势明显，26年医保执行后有望快速放量。IL-4R单 抗可靶向特应性皮炎(AD)、慢性鼻窦炎伴鼻息肉(CRSwNP)等多种II型炎症反应性疾病，全球目前仅2款 IL-4R单抗获批上市，赛诺菲的度普利尤单抗自2017年上市后快速放量并持续拓展新适应症，2024年全 球销售额超140亿美金。司普奇拜单抗作为全球第二款、国内首款IL-4R单抗，先发优势明显，非头对头 比较下疗效较度普利尤单抗更优，目前已经获批三项适应症(AD、CRSwNP、过敏性鼻炎SAR，后两者 为独家适应症)。目前司普奇拜单抗已纳入2025年12月国家医保目录，预计26年初执行，进入医保后有 望快速放量。自2024年9月上市以来，2024、2025H1销售额分别为0.36亿元、1.69亿元，预计2025-2027 年销售额分别有望达3.31/9.05/16.27亿元。 该行预测，2025/2026/2027年公司实现营业收入6.61亿/12.55亿/20.64亿元，同比+54%/+90%/+65%，归 母净利润-5.13亿/-2.97亿/2.01亿元，对应EPS为-1.72/-0.99/0.67 ...