Most of the retail stocks within The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF ( XLY ) have been beaten down due to tariff fears. Under this environment, the bear case may make some sense. Still, it also createsI carry extensive experience from institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, where I learned how to perform company deep dives as well as spot special opportunities in long/short equity portfolios.These skills have been amplified during my time as an individual trader/investor, focusing ...

Core Insights - The retail stocks within The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLY) have experienced significant declines due to tariff fears, suggesting a bearish outlook for the sector [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current environment has led to a bear case for retail stocks, which may be justified given the prevailing tariff concerns [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has extensive experience from institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, focusing on deep dives into companies and identifying special opportunities in long/short equity portfolios [1] - The analyst emphasizes a focus on undervalued growth companies that can command a premium based on developments not yet reflected in stock prices [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Focus - The conference call primarily discusses the **US-China trade relations** and the implications of **tariff policies** on global trade patterns, particularly focusing on **Asian economies** and their trade dynamics with the US. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Impact of Government Shutdown on Data**: The lack of data due to the government shutdown complicates the measurement of US effective tariff rates, leading to a focus on trade trends between the US and China instead [7] 2. **Supply Chain Strain Hypothesis**: The hypothesis that product complexity, rather than tariff levels, is the primary driver of trade patterns is supported by recent data [7] 3. **US-China Trade Equilibrium**: A more stable US-China trade equilibrium is expected to be established in 2026, with Chinese market share of US imports stabilizing around **10%** due to China's leadership in key supply chains [12] 4. **Tariff Dynamics**: The US is likely to maintain higher tariffs on China compared to the rest of the world, with rates in the **20-45%** range, as part of a strategy to de-risk from key supply chains [10] 5. **Negotiation Framework**: Progress in US-China negotiations is expected on various topics, including maritime logistics, agricultural trade, and export controls, aligning with the anticipated negotiation framework [11] 6. **Supply Chain Reorientation**: The shift in supply chains has been categorized into three phases, with the current phase (2022-2025) focusing on regional production bases globally due to rising labor costs and supply chain risk mitigation [20] 7. **Tariff Effects on Trade Patterns**: The initial response to tariffs has been a diversion of trade around Asia rather than to the US or Mexico, indicating a significant impact of tariffs on trade dynamics [22] 8. **Product Complexity as a Trade Driver**: Analysis shows that product complexity is a better predictor of trade shifts than tariff levels, with less complex products experiencing a greater contraction in imports [25] Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Share Shifts**: There have been notable shifts in US imports from China to countries like India and Vietnam, particularly in sectors like smartphones and laptops, indicating a potential mean reversion in trade data [14][19] 2. **Long-term Supply Chain Challenges**: The success of onshoring production to the US will take time due to high labor costs and the lack of a comprehensive supply chain ecosystem in the US [21] 3. **Chinese Export Capacity**: China accounts for over **50%** of global capacity for approximately one-third of US imports, making it challenging for the US to diversify away from reliance on Chinese goods [30] 4. **Tariff Convergence**: As Chinese tariffs converge with broader Asian tariffs, the incentives for trade diversion are expected to diminish, emphasizing the need for supply chain efficiencies [27] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the ongoing complexities and dynamics of US-China trade relations and their broader implications for global trade.

14 April 2025 The evolution of trade Economics 50+ charts on how supply chains are reconfiguring Global trade has gone through some major structural shifts over the years and with supply chains squarely in focus amid sweeping US tariff announcements, further reconfiguration is inevitable. As will be obvious to readers, we cannot write about how trade flows have evolved without focusing in on China. A decade ago, China was involved in 13 out of the top 30 goods import corridors. Today, that number is 17. In ...