Tax Policy Changes - The child tax credit received a $200 boost to the maximum amount for the 2025 tax year [2] - Individuals with tipped income can deduct that on their tax return, effective for 2025 [3] - A new $6,000 deduction per senior is available, subject to income thresholds [5][6] Impact of Tariffs - In 2025, tariffs amount to an estimated $1,100 burden per US household on average [7][8] - If tariffs remain in effect, the burden is projected to grow to about $1,400 per household next year [8] - Customs duties on Christmas lights alone have risen to $45 million this year [9] - Tariffs on holiday items have climbed to upwards of $500 million through the first 9 months of 2025 [11] - Toys and board games are subject to tariffs, increasing their cost [13][15] Offsetting Factors - Tax cuts passed by Congress last year will result in larger refunds [16] - The Treasury Department will adjust withholding tables for lower taxes from each paycheck [16] - Tax cuts in aggregate have a larger revenue impact than the tariff hikes [17]

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Innovator Capital Management believes 2026 will be a unique year for investors, with consumers benefiting from tax cuts retroactively from 2025 and less withholding in 2026 [2][3] - The firm anticipates consumer spending will drive the economy and potentially push the S&P 500 to a target of 7,600 [3] - Managing risk remains a central focus for the firm, especially when considering the market outlook [2] - The firm is optimistic but not wildly so, projecting an S&P 500 target that aligns with historical market returns of approximately 8% plus dividend yield to reach about 11% [10] Consumer & Economic Factors - Consumer confidence has been low, but recent data shows signs of improvement, potentially driven by tax cuts [5] - Affordability is a major concern, particularly regarding high home prices, which have increased significantly since 2018 [7] - The impact of previous Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is expected to gradually influence the economy, potentially aiding with home prices [8] - Wage growth is slowing down, which could lead to a decrease in inflation, providing relief to consumers [9] Sector & Valuation Analysis - Discretionary and staples sectors have underperformed, but the firm believes they could experience a resurgence due to increased consumer spending [5][6] - Early bull market rallies are driven by valuation expansion, but the focus is shifting to earnings growth, particularly in 2026 [11][12] - The firm anticipates a slight contraction in valuations this year, emphasizing the importance of focusing on earnings growth [13]

The White House is signaling that phase two of President Trump's economic push is about to begin. There's so much good news in the new year. Uh because you're going to see the biggest tax refund season of all time.We've got an like everybody in the whole cabinet working on trying to get housing to be more affordable. We're going to have a a plan a big plan uh to announce sometime soon in the new year. >> Welcome to the Big Money Show.I'm Brian Brenberg along with my co-host Taylor Riggs, Lydia who Jackie D' ...

Economic Outlook & Growth Drivers - The economy faces hurdles including government shutdowns affecting growth and delaying data collection [2] - "Prosec" (production for security) is a key positive thesis, focusing on domestic production in areas of national security interest like chips, data centers, AI, electricity, and rare earth minerals [3][4][5] - Tariffs are starting to impact earnings potential and may spread to consumers [6][7] - Tax cuts, tilted towards upper-end households, and deregulation are expected to inject cash into the economy in the first half of 2026 [9][10][11] - The dynamic properties inside the tax bill should facilitate 23% to 25% growth next year [14] Market & Investment Strategies - Companies are questioning spending on AI, which could drag on the economy if it slows [6][15] - The market and economy have diverged, with a "little i-shaped economy" where a small segment is doing well while the rest is just okay [16][17] - Fund manager surveys show bullish sentiment, but there's a disconnect with the real economy [19] - Tech companies may become more careful with spending plans [21] AI & Technology - Focus should shift from those working on AI to those working with AI, emphasizing adoption policies to drive productivity growth [24][25] - Data centers are driving significant debt issuance, estimated at $150 billion to $175 billion per year [30] - Governments are accelerating the development of AI value chains for economic and national security [52] - Sovereign AI is a key theme, with governments focusing on algorithms, critical minerals for semiconductors, and data [52][53] Crypto & Regulation - The Senate is considering the Clarity Act to provide a market structure for crypto in the US [33] - Banks are exploring stablecoins, which could lead to greater adoption and efficiency in the financial system [35][36] - Bitcoin is heavily influenced by leverage players, requiring new standards and safeguards [37][38][39] Trade & Geopolitics - Uncertainty around tariff policies is expected to continue, along with export controls and trade restrictions [42][43] - Companies are using scenario planning to manage geopolitical risks [46] - Geopolitical competition for resources like critical minerals and fresh water is a key story for 2026 [47][48] - Geopolitical competition around access to capital and the growing politization of capital allocation are reshaping the global financial system [50]

Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to perform well in the upcoming year due to a combination of factors including lower oil prices, tax cuts, and a new Federal Reserve chairman [5][25][43] - Oil prices have significantly decreased, with Brent crude below $60 per barrel and West Texas around $55, down from $80 at the start of the year, which is anticipated to lower inflation [7][21][23] Job Market - The recent jobs report showed an increase in private sector jobs, averaging 75,000 over the past three months and 88,000 over the last year, despite a decline in federal jobs by nearly 300,000 [6][10][16] - Wage growth for production workers has increased, with average hourly earnings rising at an annual rate of 1.6%, although there are concerns about tapering wage growth [11][12] Consumer Impact - Lower oil prices are viewed as a tax cut for consumers, which is expected to support household spending and overall economic growth [18][20][25] - The reduction in oil prices is seen as beneficial for lower-income individuals, who are typically more affected by price spikes [13][14] Stock Market Performance - The stock market has shown significant gains, with the S&P 500 up approximately 35% since early April, indicating positive investor sentiment about future economic conditions [40][41][42] - The Dow Jones transport index and the small cap Russell 2000 have also seen substantial increases, suggesting a broad-based market recovery [41][42] Future Projections - Anticipation of a strong economic year in 2026 is based on current trends in job openings, productivity, and capital spending [19][32][36] - The upcoming CPI report is expected to provide insights into the impact of lower oil prices on inflation [31]

Tax Law Impact on Businesses - The new tax law extended tax cuts and created new deductions for overtime pay, tipped workers, and senior citizens [1] - The law also expanded the state and local tax (SALT) deduction [2] - Bonus depreciation allows companies to deduct 100% of the cost of certain equipment immediately [4] - The 20% deduction for pass-through businesses was made permanent, potentially boosting companies like Gulf Distributing with $750 million in gross revenue per year [7] - The per-person estate tax exemption increased to $15 million, providing certainty for family-owned businesses [10] Winners and Losers - Gulf Distributing is benefiting from the new tax law, using it to expand and invest in equipment [3][6] - Solar Alternatives is facing challenges due to the phasing out of the 30% clean energy credit for homeowners and commercial credits [15] - Solar Alternatives anticipates a reduction in its workforce due to the new tax law [15] Renewable Energy Sector - The 30% clean energy credit for homeowners will expire at the end of the year, and commercial credits will be phased out over the next few years [15] - A solar system without batteries costs approximately $20,000, while adding a battery can add another $20,000 [14] - The solar industry argues that the phase-out of tax credits does not provide enough time for businesses to adapt [18]

Bloomberg President Donald Trump promised Americans big tax refunds next year. Many filers — particularly those who could most use the financial boost — may soon be disappointed. “Your sort of typical W-2 worker with no kids will see very little change year-over-year,” said Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute. He estimates slightly more than half of taxpayers fall into that group. Most Read from Bloomberg That disconnect between Trump’s public promises and the ...

分组1 - The Biden administration's Department of Justice allegedly attempted to bribe Democratic representative Henry Quayar, who claims there was no evidence of a quid pro quo [1] - Quayar has been vocal about the issues related to the open border under Biden's leadership, which he believes has led to increased crime and safety concerns in his district [1] - The political landscape in Quayar's district is shifting, with Republicans aiming to gain ground, especially after Trump's recent pardon announcement [1] 分组2 - Senate Majority Leader John Thun criticized the Democrats' healthcare plan, suggesting it prioritizes political issues over genuine healthcare reform, as Obamacare subsidies are set to expire [2] - The House is expected to introduce a healthcare plan that may include income limits and anti-fraud measures, as Republicans seek to address healthcare affordability [2] - The conversation around extending Obamacare subsidies is complicated, with concerns about the impact on premiums and the need for a new open enrollment period [2] 分组3 - The SBA Fraud Enforcement Extension Act aims to extend the statute of limitations for COVID loan fraud investigations by an additional five years, addressing an estimated $200 billion in fraud [3] - There is a call for stronger federal safeguards to prevent fraud in state-administered federal programs, highlighting the need for accountability in the use of federal funds [3] - The focus on fraud, waste, and abuse is a priority for Republicans, who are advocating for better tracking and management of federal funds [3] 分组4 - The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny for perceived partisanship, with calls for it to return to a nonpartisan focus on monetary policy and bank regulation [4][5] - Concerns have been raised about the Fed's handling of interest rates and its communication strategies, particularly in relation to political events [4][5] - The Fed's effectiveness in forecasting economic conditions and managing inflation is being questioned, with suggestions for a reevaluation of its research priorities and personnel [4][5] 分组5 - The conversation around AI and job displacement is ongoing, with industry leaders suggesting that while AI may create efficiencies, it will not lead to massive job losses in the immediate future [38][39] - Companies are investing heavily in AI technologies, with expectations of significant returns on investment as efficiencies improve across various sectors [38][39] - The importance of critical thinking and skill development is emphasized as a way for workers to adapt to changes brought about by AI [38][39]

On the December episode of ITK, ARK CEO/CIO Cathie Wood explains why ARK believes we’re on the verge of a major liquidity turn from both fiscal and monetary policy – and why that could lower inflation over the next few years. She walks through the data on tax cuts, money growth, yields, and productivity, and explains why the market’s “wall of worry” may be setting up one of the strongest bull markets yet. Key Points: 00:00:00 Opening 00:02:00 Fiscal policy, deficits & tax relief (OB3) 00:08:30 Inflation, fo ...

Group 1 - Hila Packard Enterprise missed revenue expectations, while Ulta exceeded earnings and revenue estimates [1] - Morgan Stanley raised its 12-month S&P target to 7,800, indicating a bullish outlook for the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's actions are expected to provide a tailwind for the market, contributing to a broadening out of investment opportunities [4] Group 2 - There is a significant benefit to consumers from tax cuts and increased deductions, which may positively impact spending in the first half of next year [3] - Certain sectors, particularly consumer discretionary and underperforming financials, are seen as potential areas for investment growth [4][5] - The middle-income cohort is identified as the biggest beneficiary of the tax bill, with a high propensity to spend [7]