But is the data reflecting the inflationary impact of tariffs. Let's discuss with Joe Leavourne, counselor to Treasury Secretary uh Bessant and here on set with me. It's great to see you, Joe. >> Great to be here.Thank you. >> All right, so inflation data that we got this morning. Core PCE basically in line with the month prior and actually we saw the month before that revised lower as well.What is that telling us. >> Actually, I like to look at the goods piece because that's where the tariffs would show up ...

Political Landscape & Policy Impact - The speaker alleges attempts to lock in one-party rule due to potential investigations into malfeasance and corruption [1][2] - The speaker criticizes a bill for defunding hospitals and nursing homes to cut taxes for the wealthiest, claiming it's unpopular, with a negative rating of 20 points in Georgia [5] - The speaker highlights the visit of JD Vance to Georgia as damage control for an unpopular bill that could harm healthcare and SNAP programs [3][4][6] - The speaker asserts that JD Vance's vote will negatively impact millions by affecting healthcare and nursing home access [8] Healthcare Crisis in Georgia - Georgia has lost nine rural hospitals in 15 years [6] - Evans Memorial Hospital, a small rural hospital with 49 beds, faces a $3.3 million budget shortfall, potentially leading to cuts in ICU services [6][7][9] - The hospital in Evans County has already cut OBGYN services [10] - The speaker emphasizes the healthcare crisis in Georgia, exacerbated by funding cuts to hospitals [12] Immigration Detention & Human Rights - The speaker cites a Senate investigation revealing 41 credible reports of physical and sexual abuse, 14 of mistreatment of pregnant women, and 18 of mistreatment of children in US immigration detention [13][14] - Over 500 credible reports of serious human rights abuses have been gathered in homeland security facilities [14] - The speaker criticizes the detention of pregnant women and children, arguing against the expansion of detention scope [15][16]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Potential for the Federal Reserve to reduce rates if inflation decreases and the economy performs well [1] - Tariffs are one of many forces at work in the economy, including remilitarization, fiscal deficits, and demographics, which may drive slightly higher inflation [2] - Focus should be on growth, which is more important than minor fluctuations in inflation [2] Tariffs & Trade - Tariffs have been greatly moderated, with 15% applying to half of imports, which is manageable in many cases [3] - With imports around $4 trillion, an average tariff of 7-8% equates to $300 billion annually on a $30 trillion economy, which may have some effect [3] - The impact of tariffs is still uncertain, with some being passed on and some not, and more effects may be seen in the future [4] - Current tariffs are more moderate, thoughtful, and carefully implemented, potentially helping some companies export and encouraging manufacturing to return to the US [7] Fiscal Policy & Deficit - The US deficit is $2 trillion, and concerns exist about adding $2.5-3 trillion, leading to an increase from $30 trillion to $50 trillion in debt over 10 years [8] - The extraordinary additions to the deficit each year are more concerning than the $3 trillion figure [9] - The current tax bill is beneficial, but the deficit needs to be addressed, as 6.5-7% deficits cannot continue indefinitely [9] - There are too many tax breaks that should be eliminated, and multiyear budgeting could be implemented [10][11] Market & Risk Appetite - Risk appetite in the market is a little high, but not critically so [12] - $10 trillion was borrowed and spent in the last five years, likely globally, along with large amounts of quantitative easing (QE), which is still affecting the system and may be leading to higher asset prices [13] - High asset prices and low credit spreads suggest a longer way to fall, making the market cautious about valuations [13][14]

Risk Reduction - Extending the tax bill for businesses reduces risk by providing clarity on future taxes [1] - Progress in tariff negotiations, including announcements and delays, slightly reduces risk associated with tariffs [1] - The industry hopes that some frameworks are completed soon, ideally before August 1st [2]

Government Policy & Budget Allocation - The proposed tax bill includes provisions that may lead to millions losing Medicaid coverage and tax cuts for wealthy individuals inheriting over $30 million estates, while increasing the federal deficit [1] - The bill allocates nearly $140 billion towards ICE and border wall construction [3] - The DHS 2026 budget request for ICE is just over $11 billion [2] Political & Social Implications - The Vice President argues that increased funding for ICE and immigration enforcement is a significant benefit for the American people [2] - Critics argue the bill prioritizes border security and immigration enforcement at the expense of essential services like rural hospitals [4] - The bill is portrayed as a "bait and switch" tactic, promising improved lives but primarily delivering increased immigration enforcement [3]

Economic Growth & Tax Policy - The legislation aims to make tax cuts permanent, a policy in place for 7 years, to stimulate economic growth [1] - The administration projects 2.8% growth, contrasting with the CBO's 1.8% projection over the next 10 years [1] - The policy of giving Americans more of their hard-earned money is expected to improve lives and drive economic growth [1] - The President's leadership is expected to bring in $15 trillion in investment [1] Impact on Workers & Industries - The bill includes no taxes on tips and overtime, benefiting working men and women [1] - The legislation aims to help seniors with changes related to no taxes on social security [1] - The elimination of taxes on tips is expected to benefit restaurant employees and the restaurant industry [1] Legislative Process & Political Context - The reconciliation bill is back in the House with a deadline, aiming to pass legislation similar to what the House initially sent [1] - The bill is considered a "big beautiful bill" that is generational and historic, aligning with Donald Trump's agenda [1] - The legislation is framed as "the Americans, the people's bill" [1]

Economic Impact of Fiscal Policy - Trillions of dollars are expected to be added to the bottom line due to the tax bill, which is not good news for the US economy [2] - Increased US fiscal deficit scrutiny from both foreign and domestic investors is observed [3] - Failure to control spending could lead to rising debt-to-GDP ratio, deficit-to-GDP ratio, and interest payments [3] - Higher long-term yields could result in higher borrowing costs for consumers, affecting credit cards, mortgages, and auto loans [3] Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve faces another challenge in light of the potential longer-term implications of increased costs for consumers [4] - The Fed is currently focused on the economy, labor market, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [5] - The market anticipates a couple of rate cuts this year starting in September, but there's a risk of delay due to tariff fallout [5][6] Tariff Impact and Consumer Behavior - Modeling the impact of tariffs is difficult due to the unprecedented nature of the situation [7][8] - Tariffs are expected to have an inflationary impact, potentially slowing down consumer spending [8] - The average effective tariff rate started the year at 2%, peaked at 26% (the highest in over a century), and is now around 15-16%, roughly eight times higher than the start of the year [8] - Consumers are increasingly considering tariffs, job prospects, and the employment situation [11] - Consumers are still spending on discretionary goods and services, indicating some level of comfort [15] Labor Market Assessment - The job market is expected to cool, with around 120,000 jobs added in June [13] - The jobless rate is expected to tick slightly higher to about 43% [13] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs is making consumers cautious about jobs and inflation [13][14]

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of ceasefire between Israel and Iran, his thoughts on Washington's surprise attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, fate of the Republican tax and spending bill, sticking points in negotiations, and more. ...

Like-kind exchanges can mean a much lower tax bill on real estate for savvy investors. https://t.co/WhoRbJPHLR ...

US Fiscal Policy & Debt Ceiling - A bipartisan bill to address the debt ceiling is possible by July 4th, despite conventional wisdom suggesting difficulties [2][3] - The core structure of the agreement is intact, with adjustments being made to programs to finalize the deal [4] - Markets are primarily focused on the bill's passage and the permanence of certain provisions [9] - Equity markets are currently prioritizing immediate gratification over concerns about increased debt and deficit [10] Defense Spending & Geopolitical Implications - Defense spending is projected to increase to approximately $1 trillion [7] - Congress will likely be informed but not necessarily play a co-equal role in decisions regarding potential US involvement in conflicts, such as the Israel-Iran situation [7][8] - Formal consultation with Congress would be required for more aggressive actions involving direct US military involvement [9] Market Reactions & Bond Market Dynamics - There's a possibility of a negative reaction from the bond market after the debt ceiling issue is resolved [12] - Bond markets may be digesting the Senate's approach of not substantially adding to the deficit [13]