Core Insights - New tax laws significantly reduced Amazon's U.S. corporate income taxes by more than half in 2025, despite a rise in profits [1][2] - Amazon's U.S. taxes decreased from $9 billion to $1.2 billion, with federal income taxes on a cash basis dropping from $7 billion to $2.8 billion, while pretax U.S. profit increased by 44.5% to $89.5 billion [2] Tax Law Changes - The tax cuts are attributed to two changes in tax law signed by President Trump, allowing immediate deductions for certain capital investments and new domestic research [3] - Much of the equipment used in Amazon's data centers qualifies for these immediate deductions [4] Amazon's Investment and Tax Strategy - Amazon reported spending $340 billion on operating costs and capital investments in U.S. data centers in 2025 [4] - The company stated that the tax code changes encourage greater investment in the American economy, reflecting its significant U.S. investments [5] Broader Industry Context - The White House's legislation aims to incentivize domestic manufacturing with full 100% expensing for new factories and equipment [6] - AI-related infrastructure spending by Big Tech is projected to exceed $2.8 trillion through 2029, driven by early investments and rising demand for enterprise AI [6] - Citigroup forecasts capital expenditures among hyperscalers to reach $490 billion by the end of 2026 [7]

All right, good news on stocks today, over 500 points. Good news on manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Managers reporting in the best number in quite some time.New Orders, Production, really fantastic stuff. Uh, joining us now, Steve Moore, host of More Money on WABC Radio, Dan Clifton, Strategus head of policy research. Gentlemen, thank you.Dan Clifton. Um, deregulation, tax cuts, drill, baby drill, and Mr. . Trump's op-ed piece in the Journal, which was in print on Saturday, posted Friday night.Nobod ...

KEY TAKEAWAYS Tax filing season has started, and to get a refund quickly, taxpayers need to submit their 2025 tax returns accurately, and typically, electronically. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" made changes to the tax code that will give many taxpayers larger refunds. These changes, along with major layoffs that affected the IRS in 2025, may delay some taxpayers' returns. The 2026 tax filing season officially started Tuesday, and you'll want to submit your tax return as soon as possible, without m ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.30% but remained below Monday's 3.5-week high, supported by higher T-note yields and comments from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin regarding expected tax cuts and deregulation to boost growth this year [1] - The US December S&P services PMI was revised downward by -0.4 to 52.5 from the previously reported 52.9, indicating a slight weakening in service sector activity [3] - The markets are currently pricing in an 18% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28, reflecting market expectations for monetary policy adjustments [4] Group 2: Fed Policy and Interest Rates - Fed Governor Stephen Miran indicated that Fed policy is "clearly restrictive" and suggested that more than 100 basis points of rate cuts are justified this year, highlighting a potential shift in monetary policy [4] - The dollar is under pressure as the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, contrasting with expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [5] - Concerns about President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair, likely to be National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, are contributing to bearish sentiment for the dollar [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The dollar retains some safe-haven support due to escalating geopolitical risks in Venezuela, particularly following the US capturing Venezuelan President Maduro and President Trump's comments about temporarily "running" Venezuela [1]

Economic Growth and Inflation - The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in late 2025, with overall output rising at an annual pace of about 4% to 4.5% in the third quarter, driven by increased consumer spending and business investment [4] - Inflation has cooled, with prices rising 2.7% in November compared to the previous year, which is lower than the 3.1% economists had estimated [5] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 ended 2025 with a gain of 17%, indicating a strong year for U.S. stocks [2] Legislative Developments - Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law on July 4, extends expiring tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and introduces new federal initiatives [9][10] - The OBBBA is expected to result in significant tax refunds for working Americans, with predictions of refunds ranging from $1,000 to $2,000 due to changes in tax withholding [13] Tariff Policies - In April, Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs aimed at reducing trade imbalances and reviving U.S. manufacturing, although critics warn of potential consumer price increases [20] - Total duty revenue reached $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, with $96.5 billion collected since the start of the new fiscal year [21] - Trump claims that tariff revenue could fund a $2,000 dividend for low- and middle-income Americans [23]

Core Insights - Economists identify tax cuts in Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill as a major factor driving the U.S. economy in 2026 for both individuals and businesses [1] Group 1 - The tax cuts are expected to significantly impact economic growth [1] - Both individual and corporate tax reductions are highlighted as key components of the economic strategy [1]

Market Outlook - The current year is viewed as a "unicorn year" for investors, with consumers expected to regain control over spending due to upcoming tax cuts [2][3] - The S&P 500 target is set at 7,600, indicating an anticipated increase of 11% from current levels, driven by consumer spending [3][10] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence has been low but is expected to improve with the introduction of tax cuts, which will provide additional disposable income [5][9] - Sectors such as discretionary and staples have underperformed, but the anticipated tax cuts could revitalize these stocks [6] Economic Indicators - Home prices have increased by 50% since 2018, contributing to an affordability crisis, which remains a significant concern for consumers [7] - The impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is beginning to be felt in the economy, potentially aiding in the stabilization of home prices [8] Inflation and Wage Growth - Inflation is expected to decrease as wage growth has started to decline, which could provide relief to consumers [9] - Mortgage rates remain uncertain, but there are positive signs for the economy that could support a bullish outlook [10] Market Dynamics - The current market rally has been driven by valuation expansion, but future growth is expected to rely more on earnings growth rather than further valuation increases [11][12] - The focus for 2026 will shift to earnings growth as the primary driver of market performance, with a slight contraction in valuations anticipated this year [12][13]

Economic Performance - President Trump highlighted a significant reduction in inflation, stating it was the worst in 48 years when he took office, and now it is projected to be at 3.1% [1][4] - The federal deficit has decreased by 19% in the first two months of the fiscal year [1] - Gas prices have dropped by 3% compared to the previous year, and the grocery price index has decreased by about 5% since Trump took office [2] Tax Cuts and Refunds - The largest tax cuts in American history are expected to save families between $11,000 and $20,000 annually, with projections for the largest tax refund season ever [1] - A special "warrior dividend" of $1,776 is being sent to 1,450,000 military service members as a holiday gift [1] Wage Growth and Affordability - Real wage growth is being emphasized, with wages reportedly increasing faster than inflation, leading to better affordability for Americans [5][6] - The messaging around affordability has been improved, focusing on the contrast between real wage growth under Trump and wage losses under Biden [5]

Economic Overview - Consumers are still spending despite an early chill for the holiday season, with core retail sales up 0.9%, indicating stronger performance than the headline figure suggests [1] - The labor market has shown stagnation in payroll since April, with the unemployment rate affected by government shutdowns leading to temporary layoffs [2] Holiday Season Insights - The holiday season is compressed into December, which previously resulted in strong job gains, suggesting a potential repeat this year [3] Future Economic Indicators - Anticipated rate cuts by the Fed and expansions to tax cuts retroactive to 2025 may lead to double-digit gains in tax refunds, which consumers often treat as windfall gains, potentially affecting inflation data [4] Inflation and Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is currently driven by healthcare and social assistance sectors, with concerns about the stickiness of inflation persisting even with potential improvements in employment [6][7] - There is a normalization of inflation occurring over five years, with sequential tariff-related increases contributing to this trend [8] Fed's Position and Market Sentiment - The Fed faces a divide between those advocating for lower rates and those concerned about inflation, with the current economic data suggesting that price stability has not been achieved [5][9]

Core Viewpoint - Jeremy Siegel criticizes President Trump's trade policies, particularly the tariff exemptions, arguing they contradict free-market principles [1][2]. Trade Policy Critique - Siegel believes that requiring businesses to seek tariff exemptions from the White House creates a system of favoritism rather than promoting an open market [2]. - He describes Trump's tariffs as a "discriminatory" and "very imperfect" version of a consumption tax system, which he supports in principle [2]. Economic Impact Assessment - Siegel assesses the overall impact of tariffs as "net a negative" for both the U.S. economy and the stock market [3]. - Despite this, he remains optimistic about the financial landscape, noting that other aspects of Trump's agenda are mitigating the negative effects of protectionist trade policies [3]. Positive Aspects of Trump's Agenda - Key positive elements include deregulation, the extension of tax cuts, and a less aggressive anti-merger stance compared to the previous administration [4]. - Siegel argues that these factors more than offset the negative impacts of tariffs [4]. Tariffs as a Negotiation Tool - Siegel has noted a decrease in his concerns about a trade war, citing the administration's willingness to negotiate lower tariff rates as a sign that tariffs are used as leverage rather than permanent barriers [5]. - However, he still views the reliance on presidential exemptions as a flaw in the economic structure [5]. Market Performance - On a related note, the futures of major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones were trading higher, indicating positive market sentiment following a strong close [6].