So that's Tim Orbanowitz. He is the chief investment strategist at Innovator Capital Management. Tim, I've got to imagine, listen, that's Apollo.They've got their own thing. But it can't be a bad idea for your clients to have a little cash. What do they call it.Dry powder. Kelly said when things go down, they can buy them or should they be 100% invested right now. >> Well, Brian, you always want to be focused on managing risk.That that is front and center no matter what we're doing, especially when we we we ...

But first, the hot topic of the hour. President Trump addressing the nation last night from the White House, celebrating his accomplishments after one year back in office, giving Americans a glimpse into the new year ahead. Watch. >> 11 months ago, I inherited a mess, and I'm fixing it. When I took office, inflation was the worst in 48 years. and some would say in the history of our country, which caused prices to be higher than ever before, making life unaffordable for millions and millions of Americans. N ...

Diane, how would you describe uh this. Is it abnormal. Is it funky.Are we just in a waiting period of transition. What What do you say is going on here. >> Well, it certainly is an early chill for the holiday season, but I think you know consumers are still spending, which is ironic.The core retail sales, which goes into the GDP calculation for the retail sales data, actually was up 0.9%. So much better than that headline figure suggested. and data for September and August were revised up.So, we came into t ...

Core Viewpoint - Jeremy Siegel criticizes President Trump's trade policies, particularly the tariff exemptions, arguing they contradict free-market principles [1][2]. Trade Policy Critique - Siegel believes that requiring businesses to seek tariff exemptions from the White House creates a system of favoritism rather than promoting an open market [2]. - He describes Trump's tariffs as a "discriminatory" and "very imperfect" version of a consumption tax system, which he supports in principle [2]. Economic Impact Assessment - Siegel assesses the overall impact of tariffs as "net a negative" for both the U.S. economy and the stock market [3]. - Despite this, he remains optimistic about the financial landscape, noting that other aspects of Trump's agenda are mitigating the negative effects of protectionist trade policies [3]. Positive Aspects of Trump's Agenda - Key positive elements include deregulation, the extension of tax cuts, and a less aggressive anti-merger stance compared to the previous administration [4]. - Siegel argues that these factors more than offset the negative impacts of tariffs [4]. Tariffs as a Negotiation Tool - Siegel has noted a decrease in his concerns about a trade war, citing the administration's willingness to negotiate lower tariff rates as a sign that tariffs are used as leverage rather than permanent barriers [5]. - However, he still views the reliance on presidential exemptions as a flaw in the economic structure [5]. Market Performance - On a related note, the futures of major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones were trading higher, indicating positive market sentiment following a strong close [6].

Treasury chief Scott Bessent has repeatedly brought up how he expects Americans to ring in the new year in part by reducing the amount of federal income tax that they hand over in every paycheck, making the move due to the tax cuts in the GOP's One Big Beautiful Bill Act. ...

Core Insights - Michigan's state budget for fiscal year 2026 was passed with bipartisan support, featuring significant tax cuts that align with President Trump's previous proposals [2] - The tax cuts will eliminate the 4.25% income tax on overtime, tips, and Social Security benefits for the next three years, which Governor Whitmer described as a "game changer" for residents struggling financially [2] Tax Benefits Overview - Over 800,000 Michigan residents are expected to benefit from the tax cuts, including many seniors who will see a reduction in their tax burden [3] - The Michigan Earned Income Tax Credit for Working Families will expand, benefiting approximately 650,000 families, particularly those in middle- and lower-income brackets [3] Specific Savings Breakdown - An estimated 500,000 workers in sectors such as construction, manufacturing, healthcare, public safety, and food service will save an average of $500 in taxes due to the elimination of the income tax on overtime [4] - Around 300,000 individuals, including servers and delivery drivers, will save an average of $400, with the elimination of taxes on tips being crucial for their financial stability [4] - Approximately 40,000 seniors will save an average of $500 annually from the removal of state taxes on Social Security benefits [4]

Core Insights - Millions of Americans will see tax savings for the 2025 tax season due to the provisions of the Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which made many aspects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanent and introduced new tax deductions and credits for households [1] Tax Savings by Income Group - Working-class families earning between $15,000 and $30,000 will experience a 21% tax cut, the largest reduction among all income groups [2] State-Specific Tax Savings - Taxpayers in different states will experience varying levels of tax savings, with some states projected to save significantly more than others [3] California - California taxpayers are expected to save an average of $2,293.15 annually, primarily due to estate and gift tax breaks, averaging $898 per return, potentially saving over $3.2 million per estate [4] - The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction is significant, with about 15% of Californians itemizing their returns, leading to average savings exceeding $5,200. Seniors benefit from an average savings of $1,386 with a new $6,000 senior deduction, and over 6.6 million qualifying children are eligible for the Child Tax Credit (CTC) [5] Oregon - Oregon taxpayers are projected to save an average of $2,226.61 annually, with estate and gift tax benefits averaging about $963 per return, allowing estates to save upwards of $2.5 million [6] - Approximately 13% of Oregonians itemize their returns, resulting in average tax savings exceeding $5,500. Seniors, making up about 20% of the population, could save over $1,100 on average with the new senior deduction, and there are over 670,000 qualifying children eligible for the CTC [7] Massachusetts - Massachusetts ranks third, with taxpayers saving an average of $2,150.45 annually, driven largely by estate and gift tax savings, which average about $921 per return, with individual estates saving more than $2.3 million [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a supply-side economist to lead the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that tax incentives can drive growth while keeping inflation low [1][2][4]. Group 1: Supply-Side Economics - Supply-side economists believe that tax incentives can generate faster economic growth with lower inflation, contrasting with the Fed's traditional demand-side approach [2]. - The article argues that the Fed has historically misunderstood the relationship between growth and inflation, leading to detrimental policies [2][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Leadership - There are five finalists mentioned for the top position at the Federal Reserve, including Rick Ryder, Mickey Bowman, Chris Waller, Kevin Hasset, and Kevin Walsh [3]. - President Trump is expected to make a decision on the new Fed chair after Thanksgiving, as Jerome Powell's term ends in May [4]. Group 3: Economic Predictions - The article posits that tax cuts combined with tight monetary policy could achieve economic growth rates of 4% to 5% with virtually zero inflation [5].

Group 1 - Businesses are currently generating strong profits, which is a key driver behind their rising valuations [1][3] - The outlook for future earnings is positive, with projected earnings for 2025 expected to reach nearly $300 per share, representing a 14% increase [3] - The steady 10-year treasury rate at around 4% serves as a reasonable discount rate for capitalizing corporate profits into future value [4] Group 2 - Profits are essential for a strong economy; businesses losing money would lead to layoffs, reduced income, and decreased consumer spending [5] - The booming stock market is boosting confidence in profitable businesses, predicting a strong economy for the upcoming years, with GDP growth estimates around 4% for the second and third quarters [6] - Tax cuts for businesses, as implemented by the current administration, are expected to enhance profits, benefiting both stocks and the overall economy [7]

Core Insights - Americans, especially affluent individuals, are expected to receive larger tax refunds or smaller tax bills in 2026 due to President Trump's tax and spending package passed in July, with total taxpayer savings potentially reaching an additional $50 billion [1][5][10] Taxpayer Benefits - The retroactive provisions in 2025, such as the additional senior deduction and higher child tax credit, can only benefit taxpayers by reducing their withholding or estimated tax payments, but employers are still using higher rates for calculations [2][4] - The benefits of the new tax cuts are skewed towards the top income quintile, with high-income households receiving the most significant advantages [3][4] Financial Impact - A $50 billion increase in tax refunds would represent a 17% increase from the previous year's total of approximately $275 billion, which is notable given that the increase from 2024 to 2025 was only 2% [5] - The average refund in 2025 is projected to be $2,939, with a 17% increase translating to nearly $500 more [5] Economic Implications - Any economic boost from larger tax savings is expected in the first half of 2026, but the impact may be modest as consumer spending does not appear to be negatively affected by the delay in tax payment adjustments [9][10] - Upper-income households are likely to benefit more from lower tax bills rather than refunds, and they are expected to spend only about 20% of their tax savings, while other Americans may spend 25%-40% of their incremental refunds [10]