This year’s tax season — which officially kicks off Monday — will be a doozy. The Internal Revenue Service anticipates receiving some 164 million individual income tax returns, with the bulk filed online, as Americans digest the many provisions of President Trump’s signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Upgrades include measures relating to tips and overtime, a hike in the maximum child tax credit, an increased cap for state and local tax deductions, and a bigger deduction for qualifying seniors. The Ba ...

HASSETT, WHO MADE THOSE COMMENTS OVER THE WEEKEND. HE ALSO REITERATED TO CNBC THIS MORNING THAT THE CONSUMER IS STAYING RESILIENT BECAUSE AMERICANS ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT INCOME GROWTH IN THE YEAR AHEAD. BUT MY NEXT GUEST SAYS THERE'S A BIG RISK ON THE HORIZON AND ONE THAT WILL COME BEFORE THOSE TAX REFUNDS HIT.JOINING US TO DISCUSS IS TD COWEN'S CHRIS KRUEGER. CHRIS, IT'S GOOD TO SEE YOU. AND YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE OBAMACARE SUBSIDIES, RIGHT.>> GREAT TO SEE YOU AS WELL. THAT'S CORRECT. THEY'RE GOING TO EXP ...

And for more on that, I want to welcome into the program Joe Leavia, counselor to Treasury Secretary Bessett. Joe, thanks so much for joining me. Always great to see you.>> Thank you. Thank you. >> The Fed yesterday increased their outlook for the economy next year.They now see GDP growth of 2.3%. Fed Chair Powell said that he thinks that any price increases from tariffs could peak in the first quarter. where they see inflation falling to 2.5% next year, but the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4% ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the expected arrival of tax-rebate checks for consumers in the second quarter, while the majority of relief from Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act is primarily aimed at businesses [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the tax-rebate checks are part of a broader relief effort, indicating a significant financial impact on consumers [1] - It emphasizes that the legislation is designed to provide substantial benefits to businesses, suggesting a strategic focus on corporate support over individual relief [1]

Group 1 - The importance of data center infrastructure to the economy is highlighted, indicating that market performance will largely depend on major tech companies [2] - Recent discussions have centered around the influence of AI and Federal Reserve policies on market dynamics, suggesting a complex interplay rather than a simple binary choice [3][4] - The market sentiment shifted from excitement about potential rate cuts and economic growth to a more cautious stance, impacting AI stocks more than underlying fundamentals [5] Group 2 - Consumer spending is expected to be supported by tax refunds and provisions from recent legislation, although the immediate impact of full expensing and bonus depreciation has not yet been observed [7][8] - There is a belief that companies may need more time to adapt to new policies, which could lead to a resurgence in non-AI capital expenditures [8] - Despite discussions about equal-weight S&P investments, the performance has predominantly favored major tech companies, with earnings growth being the primary driver rather than multiple expansions [10][12]

High-income residents in Democratic-leaning states are poised to get unusually large tax refunds early next year, thanks to the relaxed cap on state and local tax deductions https://t.co/3ImkRjPLVG ...

Core Points - The US ended fiscal year 2025 with a lower deficit-to-GDP ratio than the previous year, with expectations for continued improvement in 2026 [1][2] - The deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to decrease from 6.5% to 5.9%, marking a significant reduction [2] - Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipates substantial tax refunds for lower-end consumers due to changes in tax withholding schedules [4] Fiscal Outlook - The Treasury has not released the exact fiscal 2025 deficit-to-GDP figure due to a government shutdown, but estimates indicate a positive trend [2] - Bessent expressed optimism for 2026, suggesting it could be a strong year for both corporate and consumer economies [5] Tax and Consumer Impact - The recent tax bill is expected to lead to higher take-home pay for consumers, particularly benefiting the bottom 50% [4] - Changes in tax withholding are anticipated to result in increased disposable income for lower-income households [4] Banking Industry Dynamics - The Trump administration aims to lower capital requirements for mortgages and corporate credit, shifting lending back to banks from non-banks [5][6] - The current regulatory framework post-2008 financial crisis is seen as a threat to community banks, which have experienced a significant decline in market share [6][7] Community Banks - The share of outstanding bank loans held by community banks has decreased from 27% to 20% since the financial crisis [7] - The creation of new community banks has drastically reduced, averaging only six per year since 2010 compared to over 100 annually before the crisis [7]