July 3, 2025 06:19 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America An Opportunity to Buy the Supply and Add to Steepeners The nonfarm payroll report, carried by state and local government education-related jobs, and the low unemployment rate suggest a dynamic aligned with our economist's view for lower US potential growth and a lower equilibrium rate leading to more Fed cuts. Stay long and in curve steepeners. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Matthew Hornbach S ...

Global Macro Research June 23, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy US Rates We continue to find value at the front end but look for higher yields to add duration as money markets are pricing in earlier and more aggressive Fed easing than our own forecast, and carry remains unattractive. Add tactical 10s/30s flatteners to position given curves look steep to fair value. We think Treasury will increase coupon auction size increases in February 2026, but Treasury may choose to forgo increases to longer-end a ...

Global Rates Strategy J P M O R G A N Francis Diamond AC (44-20) 7134-1504 francis.diamond@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Elisabetta Ferrara (44-20) 7134-2765 elisabetta.ferrara@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc 30 May 2025 Overview Tactically trade rates amid tariff gyrations • The past couple of weeks delivered further choppiness for DM yields given flip- flopping tariff headlines and sharp moves at the back end of the curve. Long end rates were under the spotlight over a week ago with a sh ...