Mexico’s economy shrunk slightly in the third quarter as worries grow that malaise will persist due in large part to trade uncertainty stoked by US President Donald Trump https://t.co/YXkP9P1zLH ...

The agricultural company said net income decreased to $20.1 million as customers limited purchases to immediate needs thanks to trade uncertainty. ...

Core Insights - Global business optimism has declined for the third consecutive quarter, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade and tariff policies [2][6] - A survey of 10,000 businesses indicates that optimism has decreased by nearly 20% in 2025, reflecting growing concerns over the challenging trade environment [2][3] - More than half of the surveyed international businesses are seeking alternatives to U.S. markets, with expectations that U.S. trade policies may worsen [4][6] Trade and Tariff Impact - The ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs is prompting many international companies to explore new trading partners outside of the U.S. and China [4][6] - Businesses are increasingly prioritizing domestic markets and diversifying their supply chains in response to rising tariff pressures [4][6] Supply Chain and Investment Concerns - There is a notable decline in supply chain confidence, particularly among North American manufacturing businesses, which have been significantly affected by trade policies [5][6] - The report highlights that sectors such as metal manufacturing, capital goods production, and automotive have been hit hardest, leading to a shift in focus towards supply chain resilience over cost management [5][6][7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total GPC sales for Q3 2025 were $6.3 billion, an increase of approximately 5% compared to the same period last year, with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.98, up 5% year over year [5][28][34] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 10% year over year, with EBITDA margins improving in both Automotive and Industrial segments [5][31] - Gross margin was 37.4%, reflecting a 60 basis point increase from the previous year, driven by strategic pricing and sourcing initiatives [29][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Industrial sales were $2.3 billion, up approximately 5% year over year, with comparable sales growth of about 4% [9][12] - The Automotive segment saw sales increase by approximately 5%, with comparable sales growth of about 2% [12][34] - Motion's core MRO and maintenance business, accounting for 80% of Motion sales, was up mid-single digits during the quarter [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., total automotive sales increased approximately 4%, with comparable sales up about 2% [13][18] - Canadian automotive sales rose approximately 3% in local currency, with comparable sales increasing by about 2% [18] - European sales were flat in local currency, with comparable sales down approximately 2% [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational discipline and strategic investments to enhance customer service and manage inflationary pressures [24][33] - There is an ongoing operational and strategic review to assess business structure and differentiate in an evolving landscape, with updates expected in 2026 [23][34] - The company is optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of its markets and is positioned to build on its momentum [25][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that end markets remain muted, particularly in Europe, but they are adapting to dynamic environments and remain resilient [6][24] - The company expects diluted earnings per share for 2025 to be in the range of $6.55 to $6.80, with total sales growth projected at 3% to 4% [34][36] - Management highlighted the importance of monitoring the fluid tariff environment and customer sentiment as they navigate market conditions [39] Other Important Information - The company has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Benson Auto Parts in Canada, which is expected to close in Q4 2025 [19] - The company has returned $421 million to shareholders through dividends in the first nine months of 2025 [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: What accounts for gross margins being up less in the fourth quarter? - Management indicated that the moderation in gross margin expansion is primarily due to the lapping of acquisition benefits and ongoing sourcing and pricing efforts [43][44] Question: What are the benefits of having the businesses together? - Management emphasized the meaningful benefits of operating as one team, including improved sales effectiveness and technology investments [45][46] Question: What is the same SKU inflation in US NAPA? - Management noted that the full run rate of inflation is expected to stabilize, with a low single-digit benefit to sales growth from tariffs [53][54] Question: Have independents been losing market share? - Management stated that independent owners are managing inventory levels effectively and are not losing market share [78][80] Question: How should the fourth quarter outlook inform 2026 expectations? - Management suggested that while they expect solid performance in Q4, they are cautious about market conditions and will continue to monitor the environment closely [99][104]

Core Insights - Disruptions in logistics services lead to annual losses of approximately $16 billion for the global technology sector, representing 8% of the technology logistics market [1] Group 1: Impact of Logistics Disruptions - The technology sector is facing increased demands for faster delivery and greater reliability due to the rise of AI, cloud infrastructure, and data centers [2] - Geopolitical instability and trade uncertainty are identified as major influences on supply chain strategy by 91% of surveyed technology leaders [3] - Disruptions have resulted in more customer complaints for 87% of companies, with 66% reporting lost contracts due to supply chain issues [5] Group 2: Factors Affecting Supply Chain - Recent changes in US tariff policies impacted 70% of surveyed companies, while 68% were affected by the semiconductor shortage [3] - Companies investing in warehousing, international shipping, and sustainability experience lower disruption-related costs [4] - Focused investment in risk management and resilience planning can reduce disruption costs by up to 35% [4] Group 3: Importance of Resilience Planning - Strengthening supply chain resilience allows technology firms to restore operations quickly and maintain customer relationships during disruptions [4] - Many technology companies have inadequate resilience plans, with half of those surveyed losing over a month of productive time due to disruptions [6] - Reliable delivery is crucial for customer experience, as 59% of companies reported negative effects on brand reputation due to disruptions [5]

Core Insights - Levi Strauss raised its full-year profit forecast but fell short of Wall Street expectations due to costs associated with U.S. import tariffs, resulting in a 7.5% decline in shares during extended trading [1] - The company has secured about 70% of its holiday inventory ahead of schedule and has raised prices modestly to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariff policies [1][2] - Despite these efforts, the fourth-quarter gross margin is expected to decline by 130 basis points [2] Financial Performance - Levi now expects fiscal-year 2025 adjusted profit per share to be between $1.27 and $1.32, an increase from the previous forecast of $1.25 to $1.30, although the midpoint is below the analyst estimate of $1.31 [3] - The forecast assumes that U.S. tariffs will remain at 30% for China and 20% for other countries through the end of the year [3] - The company reported a 7% increase in net revenue for the quarter ending August 31, reaching $1.54 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.50 billion [6] Market Position and Strategy - Merchandise levels increased by 12% compared to the previous year, with the majority of products sourced from South Asia, which faces high tariffs under the current administration [5] - Levi has focused on full-price sales through its direct-to-consumer channel, expanded its product offerings, and maintained strict control over inventory [4]

Core Viewpoint - Factory activity in New York state has declined this month, reversing the positive trends observed in recent months due to ongoing trade uncertainties [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The recent decline in factory activity indicates a shift in the manufacturing sector's performance, which may impact overall economic growth in the region [1] - The change in factory activity reflects the broader challenges faced by manufacturers amid persistent trade uncertainties [1]

Summary of European Central Bank Update / Briefing September 11, 2025 Key Points on the ECB and Economic Outlook ECB Interest Rates and Inflation Projections - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, with inflation currently around the 2% medium-term target [2][11] - Headline inflation is projected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, while inflation excluding energy and food is expected to average 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [2][7] - The economy is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, revised up from 0.9% expected in June, with a slight decrease in growth projection for 2026 to 1% [2][4] Economic Resilience and Consumer Spending - The economy grew by 0.7% in cumulative terms over the first half of the year, driven by strong domestic demand [4] - The unemployment rate was reported at 6.2% in July, which is expected to boost consumer spending as people save less of their income [4][6] - Investment is expected to be supported by substantial government spending on infrastructure and defense [5] Risks and Challenges - Risks to economic growth are now considered more balanced, with recent trade agreements reducing uncertainty [8] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, remain significant sources of uncertainty [8] - The outlook for inflation is uncertain due to the volatile global trade policy environment, with potential for both lower and higher inflation depending on various factors [9] Financial and Monetary Conditions - Short-term market rates have increased, while longer-term rates have remained stable [10] - The average interest rate on new loans to firms decreased to 3.5% in July, with corporate borrowing costs continuing to decline [10] - Growth in loans to firms was reported at 2.8%, and corporate bond issuance rose to 4.1% [10] ECB's Approach to Monetary Policy - The ECB will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine monetary policy stance, without pre-committing to a specific rate path [3][11] - The Governing Council emphasizes the importance of assessing incoming economic and financial data to inform interest rate decisions [3][11] Additional Insights - The ECB is focused on ensuring that inflation stabilizes at the 2% target in the medium term, with a commitment to adjust instruments as necessary [11] - The introduction of a digital euro and the completion of the Savings and Investment Union are highlighted as critical for future economic stability [6] Conclusion - The ECB remains vigilant in monitoring economic conditions and is prepared to adjust its monetary policy as needed to maintain stability and support growth in the euro area [11]

Group 1 - The company ZIM is viewed as a bet on increasing trade uncertainty and the complexity of supply chains [1] - An expectation that ocean freight rates would rise was a key component of the investment thesis [1] Group 2 - Invest Heroes LLC is a research firm established in 2018, providing equity and fixed income research services [1] - The firm covers over 120 Russian, US, and Chinese stocks, as well as 200 Russian bonds [1] - The research team consists of 9 analysts and has gained recognition in the global market [1] - The firm has achieved milestones such as being included in Refinitiv and Factset, and has been recognized as top analysts for several Russian companies [1]

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Raman Kumali. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, markets are on edge as investors keep a close eye on the labor market and trade uncertainty. US stock futures are pointing just slightly in the green on the main, but really lacking in direction at the opening bell. The job market is slowing down.The August ADP report showing the private sector added 54,000 jobs last month. That was worse than the estimate of 68,000. ...