The Bureau of Labour Statistics has reported that American firms added just 73,000 jobs in July—well below expectations. Some of the slowdown may reflect trade uncertainty https://t.co/FBMfPmdum1 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - Trade uncertainty is expected to persist, impacting corporate confidence, capital expenditure (capex), and the overall trade cycle [6][36] - High-frequency data is anticipated to reflect negative impacts on the growth cycle in the upcoming 2-3 months [6][36] Summary by Relevant Sections Trade Negotiation Status - Vietnam is the only country that has secured a trade agreement, while negotiations with other economies remain unclear [6] - The US and China face significant challenges in reaching a comprehensive trade deal, particularly regarding transshipments and sectoral tariffs for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [6][33] Economic Implications - The report highlights that if trade agreements are secured, the best-case scenario would be for tariff rates to remain at current levels [18] - If no progress is made, tariff rates could revert to levels announced on April 2, 2025, which would significantly impact various economies [18] Country-Specific Negotiation Updates - **China**: Current tariff rate is 42%, with ongoing negotiations regarding rare earth exports and chip design software [56] - **India**: Current tariff rate is 11%, with India emphasizing that trade agreements must align with national interests [56] - **Indonesia**: Current tariff rate is 15%, with a focus on securing a comprehensive trade deal covering critical minerals and energy [56] - **Japan**: Current tariff rate is 17%, with unresolved issues on auto tariffs and agricultural market access [56] - **Korea**: Current tariff rate is 16%, with ongoing negotiations to extend tariff pauses [56] - **Malaysia**: Current tariff rate is 8%, with limited updates following two rounds of negotiations [56] - **Taiwan**: Current tariff rate is 7%, aiming for a zero-tariff deal and increased US goods purchases [56] - **Thailand**: Current tariff rate is 11%, with proposals to reduce trade surplus with the US [56] - **Vietnam**: Current effective tariff rate is 20%, with commitments to remove tariffs on US goods [56] Tariff Rate Changes - The report indicates that the US trade-weighted tariff rates on imports from Asia have increased significantly, with potential further increases [13][14] - The emergence of a two-tiered tariff structure for imports from Vietnam highlights the US's focus on addressing transshipment issues [21][22] Economic Data Trends - High-frequency shipping indicators show a slowdown in activity, suggesting that the initial strength in trade may be waning [36][46] - Capital goods imports have held up, but there are signs of potential weakness in the coming months [36][41]