I primarily invest in turnarounds in natural resource industries, where I have a typical holding period of 2-4 years. Focusing on value offers good downside protection and can still provide great upside participation. The portfolio has over the last 7 years had a compounded annual growth rate of 38% .If you like this article and are interested in more frequent analysis of my holding companies, real-time notifications on portfolio changes, together with macro and industry analysis. I would encourage you to h ...

I primarily invest in turnarounds in natural resource industries, where I have a typical holding period of 2-4 years. Focusing on value offers good downside protection and can still provide great upside participation. The portfolio has, over the last 7 years, had a compounded annual growth rate of 38% .If you like this article and are interested in more frequent analysis of my holding companies real-time notifications on portfolio changes, together with macro and industry analysis. I would encourage you to ...

Group 1 - The focus is on investing in turnarounds within the natural resource industries, with a typical holding period of 2-4 years, emphasizing value for downside protection and upside potential [1] - The portfolio has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 38% over the last 7 years, indicating strong performance in this investment strategy [1] - Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is identified as the largest coal mining company in the United States, with significant production from the Powder River Basin [2] Group 2 - The investment strategy targets companies with quality characteristics that are trading at depressed valuations, allowing for participation in the upside of natural resource investing while mitigating extreme drawdowns [2] - The current focus on natural resource industries is driven by monetary and fiscal policies, underinvestment, and attractive valuations [2]

Group 1 - The focus is on investing in turnarounds within the natural resource industries, with a typical holding period of 2-4 years, emphasizing value for downside protection and upside potential [1] - The portfolio has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 38% over the last 7 years, indicating strong performance in this investment strategy [1] - Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is identified as the largest coal mining company in the United States, with significant production from the Powder River Basin [2] Group 2 - The investment strategy targets companies with quality characteristics that are trading at depressed valuations, allowing for participation in the upside of natural resource investing while mitigating extreme drawdowns [2] - The current focus on natural resource industries is driven by monetary and fiscal policies, underinvestment, and attractive valuations [2]

Company Overview - Alamos Gold (AGI) is a North American gold mining company with operations in Mexico and Canada, specifically in the Mulatos District, which is projected to produce between 100,000 to 150,000 ounces of gold [2]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on turnarounds in natural resource industries, emphasizing value to provide downside protection while allowing for significant upside participation [1]. - The portfolio has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 38% over the last 7 years, indicating strong performance in the sector [1]. Market Conditions - The current focus on natural resource industries is driven by monetary and fiscal policies, underinvestment, and attractive valuations, which present opportunities for investors [2]. - The investing group aims to identify companies with quality characteristics that are trading at depressed valuations, minimizing the risk of extreme drawdowns common in natural resource investing [2].

Group 1 - The company aims to invest in firms with strong qualitative attributes, purchasing them at attractive prices based on fundamentals and holding them indefinitely [1] - The investment strategy focuses on maintaining a concentrated portfolio to avoid underperformers while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners [1] - The company plans to publish articles on selected companies approximately three times a week, including extensive quarterly follow-ups and ongoing updates [1] Group 2 - The company may rate high-quality firms as 'Hold' if their growth opportunities do not meet the required threshold or if the associated downside risks are deemed too high [1]

Core Insights - The focus is on investing in turnarounds within the natural resource industries, emphasizing a holding period of 2-4 years for investments [1] - The portfolio has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 37% over the last 7 years, indicating strong performance [1] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy prioritizes value, providing downside protection while allowing for significant upside potential [1] - The current emphasis is on silver mining stocks, which are viewed as having a compelling risk-reward profile [3] Market Conditions - The investment group is targeting companies with quality characteristics that are trading at depressed valuations, which is particularly relevant given current monetary and fiscal policies, underinvestment, and attractive valuations in the natural resource sector [3]

Group 1 - The company primarily invests in turnarounds within the natural resource industries, with a typical holding period of 2-4 years, focusing on value for downside protection and upside participation [1] - The portfolio has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 36% over the last 7 years, indicating strong performance [1] - GoGold Resources (GLGDF) is a Canadian-listed silver mining company with three assets in Mexico, including Parral, which is producing around 2 million from the cleanup of old tailings [2] Group 2 - The investment strategy emphasizes companies with quality characteristics that are trading at depressed valuations, allowing for participation in the upside of natural resource investing while mitigating extreme drawdowns [2] - The company is currently focused on natural resource industries due to favorable monetary and fiscal policies, underinvestment, and attractive valuations [2]

Core Insights - Market leadership often results in a list of laggards, with several well-known stocks down over 20% in 2025 due to near-term uncertainty and slowing demand [2] - Turnaround investing focuses on identifying companies where expectations have fallen too far, with potential for recovery as market conditions improve [3] Company Summaries Lennar Corporation (LEN) - Shares have declined 20.6% year to date, primarily due to price incentives and mortgage buydowns impacting profitability [5] - The company maintains a strong position with an efficient operating model, disciplined land acquisition, and a technology-driven transformation aimed at enhancing scalability and reducing costs [6][7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a 7.5% increase in fiscal 2027 sales and a 21.3% growth in earnings year over year, with earnings estimates rising from $10.02 to $11.13 [8] Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) - Shares have fallen 23.8% year to date due to delayed customer spending and uneven demand in data centers [10] - Despite short-term challenges, Marvell's long-term prospects remain strong, particularly in custom silicon and networking essential for AI deployments [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate anticipates a 22.4% increase in fiscal 2027 sales and a 25.7% growth in earnings year over year, with earnings estimates increasing from $3.34 to $3.57 [12] Snap Inc. (SNAP) - Shares are down 29.2% year to date, largely due to heavy reliance on advertising revenue amid slowing ad growth [13] - The company is leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance user engagement and create new monetization opportunities beyond traditional advertising [14] - A partnership with Perplexity will integrate AI into Snapchat, with expected revenue contributions of $400 million starting in early 2026 [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a 13.4% increase in 2026 sales and a 52.3% growth in earnings year over year, with earnings estimates rising from $0.38 to $0.49 [18]

Core Insights - The investment strategy focuses on turnarounds in the natural resource industries, with a typical holding period of 2-4 years, emphasizing value for downside protection and upside potential [1][3] - The portfolio has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 34% over the last 7 years, indicating strong performance in the sector [1] Investment Focus - The investment group targets companies with quality characteristics that are trading at depressed valuations, allowing for participation in the upside of natural resource investing while mitigating extreme drawdowns [3] - Current focus on natural resource industries is driven by monetary and fiscal policies, underinvestment, and attractive valuations [3]