Universal Commerce Protocol
Search documents
3 Predictions for Alphabet in 2026
The Motley Fool· 2026-02-23 04:00
Core Insights - Alphabet is experiencing record revenues and accelerating growth in Google Cloud, driven by aggressive AI investment plans, but there are concerns about whether AI will enhance or undermine growth [1][3] Group 1: Google Search Developments - AI-generated answers are not reducing clicks on Google Search as previously feared; instead, they are driving greater usage and longer, more complex query sessions [4][6] - The Gemini family of large language models is improving ad matching with user intent, reducing irrelevant ads, and enabling monetization of complex queries [6][9] - Alphabet is testing new monetization strategies within AI Mode, including ads below AI-generated responses and a pilot program for exclusive merchant deals [7][8] Group 2: Google Cloud Growth - Google Cloud's revenue grew 48% year over year to $17.7 billion in Q4 2025, with a backlog of nearly $240 billion, up 55% sequentially [9] - The growth of Google Cloud in 2026 will depend on the pace of AI infrastructure expansion, with planned capital expenditures of $175 billion to $185 billion [10][11] - AI-focused Google Cloud customers utilize 1.8 times as many products as non-AI customers, indicating a potential for faster growth and a sticky customer base [11] Group 3: Financial Outlook and Margin Pressure - Rising capital spending may lead to higher depreciation and operating costs, potentially pressuring operating margins and profitability in 2026 [12] - Despite potential margin pressure, efficiency gains from Gemini AI have reduced serving unit costs, and record operating and free cash flow in 2025 provide flexibility for future investments [13]