Volume profile
Search documents
Options Corner: AMD's Rally Ahead of Earnings
Youtube· 2025-11-04 14:15
Core Insights - AMD has shown significant performance, increasing approximately 84.5% over the past year, outperforming the SMH Semiconductor ETF by nearly 34.5% and the S&P 500 by 64.5% [1][2] Performance Comparison - In comparison to other chip makers, AMD is positioned in the middle, with Micron leading the storage segment, while Nvidia has lagged behind [2] Technical Analysis - AMD's stock has experienced notable highs around 267 and lows near 203, with a recent breakout above the 240 level indicating bullish momentum [3][4] - A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed, suggesting consolidation before upcoming earnings, which is a common market behavior [4] - The volume profile indicates support levels around 240 and 235, with the 21-day exponential moving average also providing support [5] Momentum and Resistance - There is a noted decline in momentum, indicating a bearish divergence, yet overall momentum remains high as the stock approaches overbought territory [6][7] - The standard deviation channels suggest potential resistance near 260, with a higher resistance level at approximately 299 [7] Options Strategy - An options strategy is proposed to capitalize on the higher implied volatility leading up to earnings, suggesting a neutral to bullish outlook [8][9] - A specific trade involves selling an out-of-the-money 240 strike put while buying a 230 strike put, creating a short $10 wide neutral to bullish put vertical [10][11] - This strategy offers a probability of success with a 70% chance of the short 240 strike finishing out of the money, allowing for profit if the stock remains above the break-even point of 237.70 [12][13]
Options Corner: NVDA Price Target Hikes
Youtube· 2025-11-03 14:15
Core Insights - Nvidia has shown significant upward trends in its stock performance, particularly since the lows observed earlier in the year, with a notable breakout from a rising wedge pattern [1][4][3] - The stock has outperformed both the broader semiconductor sector and major indices, with Nvidia's performance being compared favorably against its peers in the MAG 7 group [2][3] - The concentration of market capitalization among the MAG 7 stocks is increasing, now comprising about 37% of the S&P 500 [3] Technical Analysis - Nvidia's current trading range is identified between 201 and 212, with key support levels around 185 and 190, which are aligned with moving averages [4][6] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a slight pullback from overbought conditions, suggesting potential for re-entry into bullish territory if price action remains strong [6][7] - Volume profile analysis highlights a significant congestion area near 180, which could act as a support level [7] Options Strategy - An example trade strategy involves selling a cash-secured put at the 200 strike price, with a credit of approximately $4, allowing for a cushion of about 5% below the current share price [10][13] - The probability of the 200 strike put finishing out of the money at expiration is estimated at 61%, providing a favorable risk-reward scenario for the trade [15] - The strategy aims to avoid the earnings report scheduled for November 19, mitigating event risk while allowing for potential share acquisition if the stock price declines [10][16]