Investors looking to strike while the iron is hot can buy beaten-down stocks that appear to have excellent chances of bouncing back. And that describes shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO -1.50%) very well. The pharmaceutical leader is down by 52% over the trailing-12-month period as of July 17, but initiating a position now could double investors' money in six years or so. Here's why this stock is a screaming buy at its current levels. Novo Nordisk's recent challenges Novo Nordisk focuses on developing diabetes tr ...

Core Insights - The weight management medicines market is experiencing significant growth, with Eli Lilly positioned to dominate through the end of the decade due to its strong pipeline and clinical successes [1][9] - Eli Lilly's primary competitor in this space is Novo Nordisk, with both companies having deep pipelines and successful products [2][4] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's tirzepatide has shown superior efficacy compared to Novo Nordisk's semaglutide in clinical trials [5] - Novo Nordisk's next-generation medicine, CagriSema, achieved a mean weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks, falling short of its 25% target, which may hinder its commercial success [6][5] - Eli Lilly has additional promising candidates, including orforglipron and retatrutide, which could further enhance its competitive edge [7] Group 2: Strategic Moves - Eli Lilly is partnering with Camurus to utilize FluidCrystal technology for long-acting delivery of injectable therapies, addressing the issue of weight regain after discontinuation of medications [8] Group 3: Financial Performance - Eli Lilly reported a 45% year-over-year revenue increase to $12.7 billion and a 29% increase in net income to $3 billion in the first quarter [11] - Despite a higher forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.3 compared to the healthcare industry's average of 15.9, Eli Lilly's growth justifies the premium [11] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Eli Lilly is not solely focused on diabetes or weight loss, as it has also developed breakthrough medicines in other therapeutic areas, including Alzheimer's disease [10] - The company's strong financial results and promising pipeline make its stock an attractive long-term investment [12]

Core Viewpoint - Hims & Hers Health, Inc. has introduced a new affordable pricing model for six months of prescription-only Wegovy, aiming to enhance accessibility to obesity care for Americans, which is expected to significantly boost the company's business [1][7]. Company Developments - Following the announcement of the new pricing model, Hims & Hers shares experienced a decline of nearly 8% [2]. - The company currently has a market capitalization of $11.94 billion and reported an earnings yield of 1.4%, which is favorable compared to the industry's negative yield. In the last quarter, Hims & Hers achieved an earnings surprise of 66.7% [3]. - Effective May 22, 2025, new customers can access Wegovy for $549 per month for six months, which includes a holistic approach to weight loss powered by technology [4]. - Hims & Hers plans to continue offering a wide range of weight loss treatment options, including other medications and clinically-backed care plans [5]. - The company recently reported strong improvements in both top and bottom lines for the first quarter of 2025, with an increase in subscribers and monthly online revenue per average subscriber [8]. Industry Prospects - The global weight management market was valued at $329.83 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $488.42 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of approximately 5%. This growth is driven by rising obesity rates and the adoption of personalized healthcare solutions [6]. - The latest product availability is seen as a significant milestone for Hims & Hers, expected to enhance its business prospects [7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q4 2024 totaled $184 million, down 10% year-over-year, reflecting continued headwinds in digital and workshop businesses and the closure of the consumer products business [55][48] - Full year 2024 revenue was $786 million, a decline of 12% compared to the prior year, but above prior guidance of at least $770 million [48] - Adjusted gross margin was 69.1% in Q4, up from 61.4% in the prior year, driven by cost actions and the closure of the lower gross margin consumer products business [55][50] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 27.4% in Q4, the highest level since Q3 2022 [40][50] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Behavioral business revenue declined 12% year-over-year, while clinical business revenue grew by 58% [11] - Clinical subscribers ended the year at 92,000, growing 18% from Q3 and 38% year-over-year [48] - Subscription revenue overall was down 7% in Q4, but the overall rate per paid week increased sequentially due to a higher mix of clinical subscribers [49] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company entered 2025 with a revenue headwind of approximately $45 million, driven by a lower 2024 ending subscriber base [14] - The clinical business is expected to continue strong growth in January and February, despite potential volatility due to uncertainties surrounding compounded semaglutide [59] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on stabilization, recovery, and rebuilding to lay the groundwork for sustained future growth [15][41] - Plans to remove $100 million in run rate costs by the end of 2025, with the majority already actioned [15][38] - Emphasis on improving the end-to-end member experience and integrating clinical and behavioral offerings [17][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by existing capital structure and the need for investments to drive growth [16][42] - The company is committed to providing medication access in compliance with laws and regulations, while monitoring the impact of FDA decisions on medication supply [32][30] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term potential of the weight loss medication market and the company's unique competitive position [15][33] Other Important Information - The company ended 2024 with $53 million in cash and cash equivalents, with cash flow from operations being positive when excluding one-time restructuring payments and interest payments [51][54] - The company has engaged strategic advisers to assess its capital structure strategy moving forward [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends during peak season and marketing environment - Management noted challenges in the behavioral business but saw encouraging trends in clinical growth and product engagement [66][70] Question: Importance of clinical subscriber growth and GLP-1 medications - Management highlighted the positive impact of compounding on clinical metrics and the expectation of a return to branded medication supply [78][82] Question: Avoiding a downward cycle with fewer subscribers - Management emphasized the value proposition of WeightWatchers and the need for innovation and product improvements to regain growth [90][92] Question: Subscriber levels needed for cash flow - Management indicated that while subscriber counts are challenged, the increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) is encouraging [100][102] Question: Outcomes based on compounded semaglutide sales - Management expressed confidence in returning to branded medications as supply improves and highlighted ongoing evaluations of medication options [106][112]