Market Outlook - City maintains a year-end target of 6,600, set in early August, and currently sees the market at 6,700 plus [1] - The firm anticipates volatility into the Q3 reporting period but expects a year-end rally as Fed rate cuts become more apparent [2] - Expectations for index EPS growth are around 8%, and while achievable, the market's pricing in of continued "beat and raise" is considered aggressive [3][4] Sector Analysis - Communication services have been downgraded to market weight after a 25-year overweight position, reflecting concerns that positive catalysts are already priced in [5] - Tech and semiconductors remain overweight, and financials, particularly banks, are still viewed favorably, needing only to meet or slightly exceed expectations [6] - The market is viewed as split, with roughly half affected by AI and the other half not, with greater concern about the AI-affected portion due to heightened expectations [7][8] Risk Factors - Labor conditions and valuation are key concerns discussed with clients [10] - A government shutdown is currently viewed as temporary, but its impact will increase the longer it persists [14][15] Investment Strategy - The firm is leaning into the cyclical part of the market, including banks and certain retailers, contingent on continued rate cuts [11] - The upper half of the income distribution is expected to drive retail sales through the holiday season [12] - Gold and crypto are seen as hedging opportunities in a strong but highly valued, momentum-driven equity market, especially with central bank buying [13][14]