Andrew, it's great to see you. And I wanna talk about that rotation that we're seeing because whether you're looking at the equal weight S and P 500, whether you're looking at the small caps, it seems like you are seeing that broadening out. And it's interesting that you have the S and P 500 pretty much at record highs even though it's been kind of patchy performance when it comes to the magnificent seven.So what do you make of the market action so far this year. Do you think that this is sustainable. It's ...

Investors are ramping up bets on higher longdated Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve as incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to press for interest rate cuts while shrinking the U.S. central bank's balance sheet. ...

Deposit account rates are on the decline — but the good news is you can lock in a competitive return on a certificate of deposit (CD) today and preserve your earning power. In fact, the best CDs still pay rates above 4%. Read on for a snapshot of CD rates today and where to find the best offers. Where are the best CD rates today? CDs today typically offer rates significantly higher than traditional savings accounts. Currently, the best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) generally offer rates around 4% APY ...

January 30, 2026 11:19 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America A Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve and US Treasuries A Kevin Warsh-led Fed should lead to a steeper yield curve over time, assuming communication and balance sheet policy adheres to views he previously expressed. The potential for more monetary policy surprises and less consensus among investors about its future path should raise realized volatility. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC | M US Rates Str ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial conditions improved during Q4 2025, supported by two Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong economic growth, leading to an 8% economic return for the quarter and a 3.7% increase in book value per common share to $8.72 [3][5][19] - The company's portfolio at year-end was valued at $6.3 billion, with $5.4 billion in Agency mortgages and $900 million in Agency CMBS [6][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Agency RMBS portfolio increased by 11% quarter over quarter, focusing on 5% and 5.5% coupons, while the allocation in 6% and 6.5% coupons declined due to paydowns [14][15] - Agency CMBS risk premiums remained largely unchanged, with no new purchases made during the quarter, but the sector continues to provide benefits through prepayment protection and fixed maturities [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 10-year Treasury yield ended the year at 4.17%, with a steepening yield curve benefiting longer-term investments [8][9] - Agency mortgages delivered strong performance in 2025, driven by reduced interest rate volatility and increased demand from GSEs [11][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains positive on Agency mortgages, viewing conditions as favorable due to lower interest rate volatility and expectations for broadening demand [6][21] - The strategy includes selectively accessing the ATM for capital raising when conditions are favorable, with a focus on maintaining a robust capital structure [36][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while near-term risks are balanced, the current environment of low volatility in interest rates and spreads is expected to provide a positive backdrop for agency mortgages over the long term [21] - The conclusion of quantitative tightening and the announcement of T-bill purchases by the Fed have solidified funding markets, serving as a tailwind for the company's strategy [20][21] Other Important Information - The liquidity position remains strong, with $453 million in unrestricted cash and unencumbered assets [6] - The company modestly increased leverage to 7 times, consistent with the constructive investment environment [5][6] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company approaching leverage levels post the tightening? - The company increased leverage slightly in Q4, reflecting a positive environment, and remains comfortable with current levels despite tighter spreads [25] Question: Have there been any surprises in prepayment reports for higher coupons? - No significant surprises were noted; prepayment speeds increased in higher coupons but were less impacted due to prepayment protection [27] Question: Is the decision on the ATM solely based on stock price? - The decision is based on a combination of price to book and the availability of accretive investment opportunities [40] Question: What would trigger a tighter spread range for MBS? - An increase in the GSEs' caps or a notable increase in the pace of purchases could signal a tighter spread range [46] Question: How should investors think about book value sensitivity to spread changes? - The magnitude of change in book value to spread changes remains consistent, but expectations for further spread tightening are reduced [50]

If an inverted yield curve is a harbinger of a near-term recession, then a steeper yield curve must be good news, right? Not so fast. Before unpacking that, let’s lay a bit of foundation just in case you don’t follow the shape of various yield curves very closely. Yield curve basics in 100 words: The yield curve is a measurement of bond yields of various terms from a few months to many years. Most often it has a positive slope, meaning 10-year yields are higher than 2-year yields. Locking your money up ...

Key Points The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF has seen massive inflows in recent weeks. Most bank stocks have reported their fourth-quarter earnings, and investors may see them as a bargain. If the Fed keeps lowering interest rates, it could be good news for banks in 2026. 10 stocks we like better than Select Sector SPDR Trust - State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF › If you look at the top of the list of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with the most recent net inflows of investor capital, ...

Core Viewpoint - The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is gaining attention due to a significant options trade indicating expectations of increased volatility in the corporate bond market [2][3][4]. Group 1: ETF Overview - LQD provides exposure to a diverse range of high-quality, dollar-denominated corporate bonds in the U.S. market, with its benchmark being the Market iBoxx USD Liquid Investment Grade Index [1]. - Major holdings in LQD include bonds from leading financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, as well as prominent companies like AT&T, Verizon, Oracle, and UnitedHealth Group [1]. Group 2: Options Trade Analysis - A notable options trade involved the purchase of a long straddle on LQD, with a total premium of $4.07 paid for 6,500 contracts, amounting to a total investment of $2.645 million [2][3]. - The trader is anticipating significant price movement in LQD, either above $114.07 or below $105.93 by June 18, or an increase in volatility in the yield curve [3]. Group 3: Historical Context - LQD has historically shown an inverse relationship with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which adds an interesting dimension to the recent options trade [4]. - Between August and October 2022, the 10-year Treasury yield fluctuated significantly, and during that period, LQD experienced a directional move of 16 points [5].

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4.1% APY available from LendingClub, Sallie Mae Bank, and United Fidelity Bank [2] - The trend of falling CD rates has been observed, but they remain high by historical standards despite recent declines [7] Group 2: Historical Context - CD rates were relatively high in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3] - The 2010s saw continued low rates due to the Fed's policies, with average rates on 6-month CDs falling to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [4] - A slight improvement in CD rates occurred between 2015 and 2018 as the Fed gradually increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows [5] Group 3: Economic Implications - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - The current economic environment shows a flattening or inversion of the yield curve, with the highest average CD rate now for a 12-month term, indicating uncertainty in future interest rates [8] Group 4: Choosing the Right CD - When selecting a CD, factors such as goals, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation should be considered to ensure the best fit for individual needs [9]

Core Insights - A steeper yield curve and strong deal activity are positively impacting bank stocks ahead of JPMorgan's earnings report [1] - Analysts anticipate that financials will contribute to one-fifth of the profits for the S&P 500 [1] Group 1 - The current market environment features a steeper yield curve, which typically benefits banks by increasing net interest margins [1] - There is a notable increase in deal activity within the financial sector, further supporting the performance of bank stocks [1] - Analysts project that the financial sector will account for approximately 20% of the total profits generated by the S&P 500 [1]