Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with Marcus by Goldman Sachs offering the highest rate of 4% APY on its 1-year CD [2] - Historical trends show that average one-year CD rates fell to around 1% APY by 2009, with five-year CDs at less than 2% APY following the 2008 financial crisis [2] - By 2013, average rates on 6-month CDs dropped to about 0.1% APY, while 5-year CDs returned an average of 0.8% APY due to the Federal Reserve's policies [3] Group 2: Historical Context - Between 2015 and 2018, the Federal Reserve's gradual rate increases led to a slight improvement in CD rates, marking the end of nearly a decade of ultra-low rates [4] - The COVID-19 pandemic prompted emergency rate cuts by the Fed, causing CD rates to fall to new record lows [4] - Following the pandemic, inflation led the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [5] Group 3: Future Trends - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a steady decline in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [6] - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offered higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [6][7] Group 4: Choosing the Best CD - When selecting a CD, factors such as goals, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation should be considered to ensure the best fit for individual needs [8]

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4% APY from Marcus by Goldman Sachs for a 1-year term, requiring a minimum deposit of $500 [2] - CD rates today are significantly higher than traditional savings accounts, indicating a favorable environment for investors seeking fixed returns [2] Group 2: Historical Context - CD rates experienced a decline following the 2008 financial crisis, with average one-year CDs paying around 1% APY by 2009 and five-year CDs at less than 2% APY [3] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates on 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [4] - A slight improvement in CD rates occurred between 2015 and 2018 as the Federal Reserve began increasing rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows [5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Federal Reserve to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Federal Reserve started cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a steady decline in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offer higher interest rates, but the current highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include goals for locking away funds, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation considerations [9]

Not everyone though is a fan of the president's pick. 314 Research co-founder Warren Pi is writing on X that Kevin Warsh was the worst pick of the four candidates and will not garner trust from the market. Warren joins us this morning to talk more about that.Warren, appreciate the time as always. Good to see you. >> Good to see you.>> Uh you're not alone either. I think Ren Mack has been fairly critical. What do you think is the problem with this pick.Yeah, I I as I laid out there, I think that he is workin ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 5% from $19.25 in the prior quarter to $20.21 as of December 31, 2025 [23] - Economic return for Q4 was 8.6%, bringing the full-year economic return to 20.2% [23][24] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) per share rose by $0.01 to $0.74, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [24] - Economic leverage ratio decreased to 5.6x, down from the previous quarter [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency portfolio ended 2025 at $93 billion, increasing by nearly $6 billion quarter-over-quarter and $22 billion year-over-year [9] - Residential credit portfolio reached $8 billion, up $1.1 billion quarter-over-quarter [13] - Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSR) portfolio increased to $3.8 billion, a $280 million increase quarter-over-quarter [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fixed income markets showed strong performance, with the U.S. aggregate bond index registering the highest total return since 2020 [7] - The yield curve steepened as short-term yields fell while long-term yields rose modestly [7] - Swap spreads widened due to a shift from Quantitative Tightening to balance sheet expansion by the Fed [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to increase capital allocation to residential credit and MSR while maintaining agency as the anchor of the portfolio [21][77] - The non-QM market is expected to grow, providing competitive advantages in loan selection and execution [20] - The company plans to remain patient and opportunistic in capital allocation, focusing on diversified housing finance strategies [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains solid, with the labor market showing signs of softness but limited layoffs [5][6] - Management expressed confidence in the durability of the swaps market as a hedge and the overall strength of the diversified housing finance model [32][21] - Risks include global fiscal issues and potential complacency in asset markets, which could lead to increased volatility [60][61] Other Important Information - The company raised $560 million of common equity in Q4, totaling $2.9 billion for the year [9] - The efficiency ratio improved to 1.31% for Q4, with a full-year ratio of 1.42% [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on mark-to-market book values - The book value was up 4%, inclusive of dividend accrual, with a slight increase noted after the call [30] Question: Portfolio returns and comfort level with dividends - The company expects mid-teens returns and feels confident about the dividend's safety for 2026 [31][32] Question: MSR portfolio insulation from lower interest rates - The company is set up to be active in the current coupon MSR market and expects origination to pick up [36][40] Question: Impact of G-fee cuts on prepayment environment - A G-fee cut on purchase loans is seen as appropriate, but broad cuts could damage the MBS market [46] Question: Attractiveness of raising capital in different spread environments - Wider spreads are more attractive for raising capital, but current stability provides confidence [51][52] Question: Risks that could change the low-risk environment - Global fiscal issues and asset market euphoria are noted as significant risks [60][61] Question: Opportunities in low-coupon MBS - The valuation on low-coupon MBS is tight, and better ways to manage risk are available [67] Question: Likelihood of GSE portfolio caps being increased - Uncertainty remains regarding the increase of portfolio caps, with no clear answer available [82]

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with Marcus by Goldman Sachs offering the highest rate of 4% APY for a 1-year term [2] - A minimum opening deposit of $500 is required for the highest CD rate [2] Group 2: Historical Trends - CD rates were relatively high in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates for 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [4] - Between 2015 and 2018, CD rates improved slightly as the Fed increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows for CD rates [5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a steady decline in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offer higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include goals for locking away funds, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation [9]

Core Viewpoint - Market focus is shifting towards the timing and implications of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, particularly for equity sectors like banks and homebuilders, as easing may occur if inflation pressures continue to decrease [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Banks - Banks are highly sensitive to interest rate changes, with their income largely derived from the spread between deposit rates and loan rates. Higher funding costs and cautious borrowing have limited profit growth for major US banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. [5][6]. - A shift towards lower rates could stabilize net interest margins, as competition for deposits may ease, allowing banks to retain customers without further rate increases [7]. - Lower borrowing costs could enhance demand for loans, including mortgages and business loans, potentially improving bank revenues after a period of stagnation [8]. - However, if rate cuts are driven by economic stress, there could be an increase in loan defaults, making credit risk a critical variable for banks [9]. - Many bank stocks are trading below historical price-to-book averages, and if earnings expectations stabilize, there could be a re-rating of financials as confidence in balance sheet strength improves [11]. Group 2: Impact on Homebuilders - The housing sector is particularly sensitive to interest rates, with mortgage rates closely following long-term Treasury yields. Changes in rates can significantly affect buyer behavior [12]. - A rate cut cycle could improve mortgage affordability, unlocking demand from buyers who previously delayed purchases due to high monthly payments [14]. - Limited housing supply relative to historical norms could magnify price effects if demand recovers faster than supply, allowing builders to regain pricing power [15]. - Despite lower rates, construction costs remain high, and labor shortages could impact profit growth. Builders with national scale and efficient supply chains may be better positioned to protect margins [16]. - Homebuilder stocks often serve as forward indicators for broader consumer health, with strength in this sector potentially reinforcing optimism about discretionary spending [17]. Group 3: Yield Curve and Economic Indicators - The shape of the yield curve is crucial for both banks and homebuilders. A steeper curve benefits banks by widening the gap between lending rates and deposit costs, while lower long-term yields lead to cheaper mortgage rates for homebuyers [18]. - If the Fed cuts short-term rates while long-term yields remain stable, both sectors could benefit. However, if long-term yields fall sharply due to anticipated economic slowdowns, housing affordability may improve, but banks could face weaker loan demand and rising credit risk [19]. - Key indicators to watch include inflation data, labor market conditions, mortgage rate trends, and bank earnings guidance, as these will help determine whether rate cuts support or undermine the banking and housing industries [20][21][22][25]. Group 4: Investment Positioning - Bank stocks and homebuilders are often viewed as early cycle trades, typically outperforming when monetary policy shifts from restrictive to neutral and growth remains intact. Timing is critical, as entering too early may expose investors to downside risks, while waiting too long could result in missing initial phases of multiple expansions [26]. - Diversified banks with strong capital levels and stable deposit bases are better positioned than those with heavy exposure to riskier credit segments. Similarly, builders with national footprints and flexible pricing strategies may be more capable of converting improving demand into earnings growth [27]. - The Fed's next rate cut window is not just a macro headline but a potential catalyst for leadership changes across the equity market, with the performance of banks and homebuilders depending on the economic backdrop accompanying the cuts [28].

Core Insights - Municipal bonds are providing elevated returns in 2025, with yields around 6% to 7%, which are historically high, making them attractive for high-net-worth clients [1] - The securitized sector, including agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities, is considered an attractive investment area due to tight spreads with US Treasuries [2] - Advisors are focusing on fixed income investments, emphasizing quality and tailoring guidance to client-specific needs [3] Municipal Bonds - High-net-worth clients are encouraged to extend maturities in municipal bonds due to their competitive yields [1] - The market's performance will depend on supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of improved conditions compared to the previous year [1] Securitized Sector - Both agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities are viewed as good investment options, but require extra due diligence due to the lack of government guarantees [2] Fixed Income Strategy - A general theme among advisors is to prioritize quality in fixed income investments, with a focus on not stretching for income [3] - The bond market is expected to steepen, indicating potential volatility in long-term bonds [6][7] Inflation and Interest Rates - The correlation between fixed income and equities has turned negative, which is beneficial for diversified portfolios [4] - The Federal Reserve may ease monetary policy, but interest rates are not expected to return to pre-COVID levels [4] High Yield and Private Credit - There is a slight increase in allocation to high yield bonds, with over 50% rated double B or higher, indicating improved credit quality [8] - Diversification remains crucial, and while high-yield bonds are not being avoided, there is caution against chasing yields [9] - Private credit is seen as valuable, with a focus on high quality and strong management, despite market growth and potential risks [9][10] Investment Outlook - The expectation is for rates to continue to fall due to slowing inflation, with a normalization of the yield curve [5] - Companies are cautious about long-term US Treasuries amid potential market volatility and inflation risks [6]

The rise in global interest rates that began in 2022 has been a game changer for the banking sector. However, it was only really in 2025 that the return of steeper yield curves was wedded to the deregulatory agenda of President Donald Trump and a rerating and repricing of banks began in earnest. ...

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with Marcus by Goldman Sachs offering the highest rate of 4% APY on its 1-year CD [2] - Historical trends show that CD rates were significantly higher in the early 2000s but fell to around 1% APY for one-year CDs by 2009 due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The average rates on 6-month CDs fell to about 0.1% APY and 5-year CDs to 0.8% APY by 2013, reflecting the impact of the Fed's near-zero interest rate policy [3] Group 2: Economic Influences on CD Rates - Between 2015 and 2018, the Fed's gradual rate increases led to a slight improvement in CD rates, marking the end of nearly a decade of ultra-low rates [4] - The COVID-19 pandemic prompted emergency rate cuts by the Fed, resulting in new record lows for CD rates [4] - Following the pandemic, the Fed raised rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to combat inflation, leading to higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [5] Group 3: Future Trends and Considerations - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, resulting in a steady decline in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [6] - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offered higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [6][7] - When choosing a CD, factors such as goals, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation should be considered to ensure the best fit for individual needs [8]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index is projected to achieve another year of double-digit gains, following a 23.3% increase in 2024 and 24.2% in 2023, with a 17.7% gain as of December 29, 2025 [1] - Various factors such as post-election optimism, tariff shocks, persistent inflation, and a weakening job market have influenced market dynamics, but the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and easing trade tensions have positioned Wall Street favorably for 2026 [2] Financial Sector Performance - The Financial Services sector has appreciated 14.5% in 2025, with the S&P 500 Banks Industry Group Index gaining 31.6% due to favorable interest rates and improved market conditions [2][8] - Major banks like Citigroup, BNY Mellon, and Northern Trust have seen their stock prices rise over 35% as a result of improved fundamentals and cost control measures [3][8] Catalysts for Bank Stocks in 2026 - Favorable interest rates, increasing credit demand, and robust capital market activities are expected to contribute to a strong year for banks in 2026 [5] - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in 2025, currently ranging from 3.50% to 3.75%, with indications of a potential further cut in 2026, which is anticipated to boost loan demand [6] Interest Margin and Income - A risk-on market sentiment could lead to rising long-term bond yields and declining short-term yields, positively impacting banks' net interest margins (NIM) [7] - The combination of rising loan demand and regulatory changes is expected to enhance net interest income (NII) for banks [7] Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook - The capital markets are expected to strengthen, with a rebound in mergers and acquisitions (M&As) anticipated in 2026, focusing on de-conglomeration and buy-and-build strategies [9] - Banks with advisory services are likely to benefit from increased fee income as financing conditions improve [9] Individual Bank Performance - Citigroup has shown significant improvement in its business transformation, with a projected revenue exceeding $84 billion in 2025 and a year-over-year NII growth of 5.5% [10][11] - BNY Mellon, as a leading global custodian, is expected to see a 12% year-over-year increase in NII, supported by lower interest rates and stable funding costs [16][17] - Northern Trust is focusing on organic growth and expects to see a rebound in loan activity, with a projected ROE of 14.8% in Q3 2025, indicating progress towards profitability [21][24][25]