July 3, 2025 06:19 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America An Opportunity to Buy the Supply and Add to Steepeners The nonfarm payroll report, carried by state and local government education-related jobs, and the low unemployment rate suggest a dynamic aligned with our economist's view for lower US potential growth and a lower equilibrium rate leading to more Fed cuts. Stay long and in curve steepeners. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Matthew Hornbach S ...

3 July 2025 | 8:18PM BST Global Rates Trader Short Runway to Rally Our economists' revised Fed baseline, which implies both earlier cuts and a lower terminal rate, points to a lower range for US yields across the curve. We now expect 10y US yields at 4.20% at end-2025 vs 4.50% previously, with a modestly steeper curve the likely result. We continue to think that a larger sustained rally would likely require a weaker growth outlook than our forecasts suggest, but ongoing data uncertainty makes it hard to rul ...

M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Matthew Hornbach Strategist Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837 Martin W Tobias, CFA Strategist Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6076 Francesco Grechi Strategist Francesco.Grechi@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1009 Aryaman Singh Strategist Aryaman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1993 Eli P Carter Strategist Eli.Carter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4703 June 27, 2025 09:16 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America Watch the Economic Data, Not the US Equity Ma ...

IF I BUY PERIPHERALS. NONE INVESTMENT CREDIT REDUCED. IT IS NOT INCREMENTALLY BENEFICIAL.ERIC: WE TALK ABOUT TREASURIES AND WE TALK MORE ABOUT EUROPE ON THE SHORT END OF THE CURVE. I FEEL LIKE TLT, THE 20-YEAR BOND ETF, IS FOR PEOPLE WHO LIKE TO OVERTHINK THINGS. MEMBERS WILL SAY THIS, FED WILL DO THIS, YOU ARE DOING 3D CHESS. WHY IS IT DOING WHAT ALL OF THIS MONEY THINK THAT YOU DO.RICK: LISTEN, I'M NOT A BIG FAN OF THE BACK END OF THE YIELD CURVE. AT THE END OF THE DAY WHAT WE GOT IN YIELDS IN EUROPE, WHY ...

They've been signaling basically to ignore the inflation data for now because it's either a lagging indicator or has the potential to change. The one thing that could make the Fed move quicker would be a weakening of the labor market. But as Ed said, the important thing to note as as bond investors and credit investors is the next move is still going to be lower rates.I am curious, Steve, when we talk about this idea of the next move and if it is lower and you have a market that at least right now seems to ...

a lot of investors very uncertain about the direction of rate cuts into the end of the year. Currently, the market is pricing in around two, but you had Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic saying maybe one this year. Do you think given where we stand in the economy today that the Fed has room to cut.I think um I think the Fed right now uh should not cut monetary should not cut interest rates and it's in a very difficult position to try to balance these things. There's a great deal of uncertainty and there' ...

as we welcome in Jeffrey Gunlock. He's the CEO, CIO, and founder of Double Line Capital. Good to see you.It's always great to have you on these Fed days. Jeffrey, what was your biggest takeaway from what you heard from the chair. It seemed like kind of a repeat of the last press conference, except I think his messaging was a little crisper uh this time around.Last time it was sort of like we don't know anything, which doesn't sound very good. And this time it was sort of wait and see. And we're getting to a ...

Joining us this morning, Fidelity Investments director of Global Macro, Yuri Timmer, with us, who I'm sure has been listening in. Yurian, it's good to see you. Of the dual threats that we were just discussing, uh, do you think there's that one is more pronounced than the other.Um, I think they're fairly imbalanced right now. And again, this is the really the first time in decades that the Fed has had to really think about both mandates, right. for the last 15 years or so whenever there was a shock to growth ...

It's not at all uncommon for different duration treasury yields to rise and fall at different speeds, creating varied slopes of the yield curve to reflect market conditions. Much more rare is when different duration yields move in entirely opposite directions. Well, in recent weeks, 30-year Treasury yields have risen while shorter term yields have fallen.Pattern last seen in 2001. This shift is driven by a couple interesting factors. First, the Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates by 100 basis ...

It's not at all uncommon for different duration treasury yields to rise and fall at different speeds, creating varied slopes of the yield curve to reflect market conditions. Much more rare is when different duration yields move in entirely opposite directions. Well, in recent weeks, 30-year Treasury yields have risen while shorter term yields have fallen.Pattern last seen in 2001. This shift is driven by a couple interesting factors. First, the Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates by 100 basis ...