The deluge of new high-profile IPOs in 2025 has largely all followed a predictable pattern: a big burst upfront, followed by a deep multi-month correction. Klarna ( KLAR ), the "buy now, pay later" digital bank that originated in Sweden and recently launched inWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He ...

Core Insights - Gucci's new "see now, buy now" strategy, introduced by designer Demna, aims to revitalize the brand's appeal and drive foot traffic back to stores after a period of declining sales [1] Group 1: Strategy and Implementation - The "see now, buy now" approach is designed to leverage the current buzz surrounding Gucci to attract shoppers [1] - This strategy marks a significant shift in Gucci's marketing and sales tactics, focusing on immediate consumer engagement [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The initiative is expected to positively influence Gucci's sales performance, which has struggled in recent years [1] - By drawing shoppers back to physical stores, the brand aims to enhance its overall market presence and competitiveness [1]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) has partnered with Ace Hardware to offer flexible buy now, pay later (BNPL) payment options in stores, enhancing customer experience and affordability [1][8] - The collaboration allows customers to split purchases starting at $50 into manageable payments with clear terms and no hidden fees, making it easier for those on tighter budgets to buy larger items [2][8] - The BNPL market is expanding beyond e-commerce into everyday retail, with brick-and-mortar stores increasingly adopting these solutions to meet consumer demand for transparency and flexibility [3] Company Performance - Affirm's total transactions surged 51.8% year over year in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, indicating strong growth and a successful expansion into home improvement retail [4][8] - The company's shares have gained 27.1% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average rise of 19.5% [7] Competitor Analysis - Competitors like Mastercard and Visa are also enhancing their BNPL offerings, with Mastercard reporting 16.8% year-over-year growth in net revenues in Q2 2025 and Visa showing a 10% increase in processed transactions in Q3 2025 [5][6] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Affirm trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6, slightly above the industry average of 5.62, and carries a Value Score of F [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2026 earnings implies a remarkable 473.3% growth from the previous year, with revenue growth projected at 23.4% year-over-year [10]

Core Insights - Klarna has shown significant revenue growth with a CAGR of almost 14% over the past three years, reporting revenues of $2.8 billion in 2024, up from $1.9 billion in 2022 and $2.3 billion in 2023, while turning losses into profits with an EPS of $0.01 in 2024 from a loss of $3.09 per share in 2022 [1][2] Company Overview - Founded in 2005 and rebranded in 2010, Klarna is a Swedish fintech company specializing in "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) services and digital financial tools, offering flexible installment payment options for both online and in-store shoppers [3] - Klarna has ambitions to challenge traditional banks, with CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski criticizing banks for their long-standing profits under misguided regulations [2] Financial Metrics - Klarna's Gross Merchandise Volume reached $105.01 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14%, with active customer count increasing to 93 million in 2024 from 79 million in 2022, and average revenue per active customer rising to $30 from $24 in 2022 [5] - The company reported operating cash flow of $587 million in 2024, an increase from $336 million in 2022, although lower than $808 million in 2023, with a cash and equivalents balance of $3.2 billion against short-term debt of $1.21 billion [6] Market Position and Strategy - Klarna holds a dominant 71.9% website share in the global BNPL market, with operations in over 26 countries and a partner network of nearly 675,000 global merchants, positioning itself as a formidable player in the growing BNPL space projected to reach $911.8 billion by 2030 [8] - The company has established itself as a default checkout option for many online retailers, enhancing customer acquisition for merchants with minimal setup costs [9][10] Banking Ambitions - Klarna has expanded into retail banking in select markets, offering interest-bearing savings accounts and fixed-term deposit products, supported by a Swedish banking license obtained in 2017 [11][12] - Interest income climbed 17% in 2023 and a further 33% in 2024 to reach $675 million, benefiting from rising interest rates and low-cost deposit funding [12] Challenges and Regulatory Environment - Klarna's valuation has significantly declined from a peak of $45.6 billion in 2022 to a target of approximately $14 billion for its upcoming IPO, facing regulatory headwinds as authorities tighten oversight of BNPL operators [13] - The company has faced regulatory scrutiny in various markets, including a SEK 500 million fine in Sweden for compliance shortcomings [13] Conclusion - Klarna is a significant player in the BNPL market with strong growth metrics, but it faces challenges related to sustainable profitability, valuation decline, and regulatory risks, suggesting a need to focus on consistent profitable growth before further banking ventures [14]

Industry Trend - The industry discusses the comparison between using credit cards and "buy now, pay later" services [1]

Consumer Finance & Credit Risk - Banks are wary of consumers overusing "buy now, pay later" plans [1] - Overuse of "buy now, pay later" plans may negatively impact approval chances for mortgages or credit cards [1]

Industry Trend - FICO is incorporating buy now, pay later (BNPL) activity into its credit scores [1]

Core Insights - Affirm's revenue forecast for the current quarter is below analysts' estimates, leading to a 10% drop in stock price during extended trading [1] - The company reported a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $8.6 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $8.2 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 36% [1] - Revenue for the quarter rose 36% to $783 million compared to $576 million a year ago, with net income of $2.8 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $133.9 million a year earlier [2][5] Financial Performance - The revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) margin was reported at 4.1%, slightly above the long-term target range of 3% to 4% [2] - Adjusted operating margin was 22%, surpassing the estimate of 21.6% [2] - Earnings per share were reported at 1 cent, compared to an expected loss of 3 cents [5] Future Guidance - For the current quarter, Affirm is guiding for revenue between $815 million and $845 million, with a midpoint of $830 million, which is below the average estimate of $841 million [3] Market Context - Affirm's business is closely linked to consumer spending, particularly in sectors like electronics, apparel, and travel [4] - The U.S. economy experienced contraction in early 2025, influenced by an import surge as companies and consumers anticipated tariffs [4]