Core Viewpoint - President Trump's proposal to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities is facing significant criticism from economists, who warn that it may worsen housing affordability in the long term despite potentially lowering mortgage rates temporarily [1]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - Economist Mohamed El-Erian highlights that the proposal revives concerns about political interference in monetary policy, particularly through the use of funds from government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [2]. - El-Erian also notes that political pressure on the Federal Reserve may extend beyond interest rate adjustments to include asset purchases, which he refers to as "People's QE" [3]. - Growing public anxiety over housing affordability is expected to lead to more aggressive policy responses, according to El-Erian [4]. Group 2: Long-term Implications - Economist Peter Schiff criticizes the proposal, stating that using $200 billion to buy mortgage bonds reduces the funds available for purchasing Treasuries, potentially leading to higher Treasury yields and inflation in the long run [5]. - Schiff argues that the fundamental issue in the housing market is not high mortgage rates but rather high home prices, suggesting that the proposal may exacerbate the problem by allowing buyers to overpay for homes [6]. Group 3: Unusual Intervention - Nick Timiraos from The Wall Street Journal points out the unusual nature of this intervention, noting that it occurs during a period of solid economic activity without systemic risks, indicating a political motivation behind the move [7]. - Timiraos emphasizes that previous Federal Reserve purchases of mortgage-backed securities were made without profit motives and resulted in significant losses during the COVID-19 era [8]. - Following the announcement, prominent real estate stocks, including the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF and Opendoor Technologies Inc., experienced a rally in after-hours trading [8].

Economic Overview - Inflation reached a 40-year high in June 2022, with the consumer price index (CPI) increasing by 9.10% year over year, significantly impacting the cost of essentials like food and housing [1] - The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to hit $1.9 trillion by the end of 2025, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [2] - The federal government reported a $1.83 trillion deficit for fiscal 2024, with expenditures of $6.75 trillion against revenues of $4.92 trillion [3] Debt and Financial Stability - The national debt has reached a record high of $38.4 trillion, raising concerns about a potential "debt death spiral" where the government may need to borrow to service existing debt [4] - Interest payments on the national debt are nearing $1 trillion annually, which constitutes a significant portion of federal spending [4] Investment Strategies - In light of economic uncertainty, diversification is emphasized as a key strategy for investors, with gold recommended as a safe-haven asset [5][6] - Dalio suggests that investors should allocate 10 to 15% of their portfolios to gold to hedge against inflation and economic downturns [7] - Real estate is highlighted as another viable investment option, with platforms allowing fractional ownership in rental properties, thus providing an avenue for diversification [10][11] Alternative Investments - Art is presented as an alternative asset class that can be inflation-resistant and potentially yield competitive returns compared to traditional investments [15] - Masterworks offers investors the opportunity to purchase fractional shares of high-value artwork, with historical annualized net returns reported at +17.6%, +17.8%, and +21.5% for assets held over a year [17]

For more on today's decision, let's get to senior economics reporter Steve Leeman, who is in Washington. Steve, >> hey Melissa. Yeah, the Fed following through on an expected hawkish rate cut, reducing rates by a quarter point to the new range of 3 and a half to 375, but signaling might be done cutting, at least for now.It appeared to buoy markets, however, with a more aggressive policy than expected for the balance sheet. On RA, the statement, what it did, it used language that it had used in the past to s ...

Fed Policy & Market Expectations - The market anticipates a hawkish Fed cut, with uncertainty about future cuts possibly extending until June [2] - A dovish cut, indicated by projections showing more rate cuts next year, would be bullish for the market [3] - Markets have adjusted to the idea that the Fed is institutionally slightly hawkish, potentially due to external pressure to protect its integrity [7] - The market is bracing for the December meeting, which is why a surprise is possible [8] Quantitative Easing (QE) & Tightening (QT) - The Fed eased primarily using its balance sheet but tightened by draining reserves from the system, causing plumbing issues [11] - Buying Treasury notes and mortgage-backed securities lowers long-term rates, influencing equity prices and risky assets, and suppresses volatility [12] Potential Risks & Opportunities - Acknowledging the balance of risks shifting could signal underlying economic fragility [4] - Ending QT is essentially QE [4]

Core Insights - Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns that the Federal Reserve's decision to halt quantitative tightening and resume balance-sheet expansion could lead to increased liquidity, benefiting gold and other assets like Bitcoin [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve's announcement is seen as a significant shift toward easier monetary policy, despite being framed as a balance-sheet adjustment [2]. - Dalio emphasizes that the Fed's balance sheet expansion, combined with interest rate cuts and large fiscal deficits, could indicate a classic interaction between the Fed and the Treasury to monetize government debt [3]. Group 2: Impact on Gold and Other Assets - Dalio explains that when central banks buy bonds, it creates liquidity and lowers real interest rates, which can lead to financial asset inflation [4]. - Increased money creation is directly linked to gold's performance, as inflation and currency debasement typically drive up hard assets like gold [5]. - The higher the inflation rate, the more gold is expected to rise, as the supply of gold does not increase significantly compared to the increased supply of currencies [5]. Group 3: Broader Implications for Bitcoin - The liquidity from the Fed's balance-sheet expansion is likely to fuel financial-asset inflation, which could also positively impact Bitcoin [6]. - Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes suggests that the Fed's quantitative easing could reignite the Bitcoin bull market, although some analysts caution that Bitcoin's technical setup remains fragile [6].

French far-right leader Jordan Bardella said his party will push the European Central Bank to relaunch quantitative easing if it comes to power https://t.co/SVDcuzrlo6 ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - Tom Lee is bullish on the stock market and cryptocurrency, anticipating a strong November with the S&P potentially rising by 200-250 points [2][3][4] - Fundamentals are leading price in crypto, with Ethereum stable coin volumes and application revenues at all-time highs, suggesting a rally into year-end [6] - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is expected to end, leading to a return of Quantitative Easing (QE), which historically drives asset prices up [24] Impact of AI & Automation - Chat GPT's launch correlates with a decline in job openings, indicating a potential impact on the job market [8][9][10] - Companies are becoming more productive with AI, incentivizing them to do more with less, increasing profitability and value [11] - China is leading in robotic hardware manufacturing, producing more robots than Germany, South Korea, Japan, and the US combined, at a lower cost [12][13] Economic & Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve may be forced to resume balance sheet expansion to maintain an ample level of reserves and ensure financial stability [23] - Nvidia is aiming to bring back American manufacturing to enhance national security and supply chain resilience [15][17][18]

Monetary Policy - Italian Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani urged the European Central Bank (ECB) to decrease borrowing costs [1] - Antonio Tajani advocated for the resumption of quantitative easing by the ECB [1] Economic Impact - The aim is to prevent the euro's appreciation from negatively impacting Italian exporters [1]

Rick Santelli joining us now from Chicago. And Rick, I know you pushed back on me in the past. I'm not implying bonds haven't moved, but is there anything that you're seeing that might send the yield meaningfully under 4%.You know, I really don't. And that doesn't mean we can't see it periodically and for a short period of time maybe move under 4% as a technical response if we happen to get a new fresh close for 2025 which is under 4% because it's currently the close of the year. That's it.The low close Apr ...

Gold Market Analysis - Gold is seen as a viable alternative to the dollar, especially with the acceleration of de-dollarization driven by sanctions and concerns about US fiscal policy [2] - Mainstream investors are starting to participate in the gold market, with major Wall Street banks recommending gold exposure in portfolios [2] - Central banks are expected to continue buying gold, competing with private investors and driving prices higher [4] - The dollar is expected to lose value, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates into rising inflation, further driving demand for gold [4] - China's central bank is divesting from US dollars and treasuries, replacing them with gold reserves to establish an independent monetary system [4] - The debasement trade narrative is taking hold as people recognize the flawed nature of CPI and seek assets that retain value [4][5] - Gold investors have outperformed US stock market investors, especially when pricing stocks in gold [3][4] Bitcoin vs Gold - Bitcoin is considered a risk asset correlated with the NASDAQ, while gold is seen as a safe haven store of value [8] - There is a risk of money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs back into gold ETFs and gold stocks [1][8] - Bitcoin treasury companies may face downside risk and potential liquidation of their Bitcoin holdings [9] US Economic Policy - The Trump administration receives a failing grade (F) on economic policy due to massive government spending and deficits [13] - Tariffs are viewed as taxes that make American industry less competitive [14][15] - The speaker advocates for balanced budgets, debt restructuring, and deregulation to address fundamental economic problems [21][22][25]