Earlier this week, >> it's a vin diagram. >> We had Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen on the show shortly after you did your charts on the affordability crisis. And um let's just say he took exception with your numbers.He brought you up a few times. >> He did. He did.But but I would tell you it's interesting. Uh you agreed with him oh on AI though you disagreed with him on wages in the second term uh of the Trump administration. tell us where you agreed and where you disagreed with uh the Treasury Secretary.> ...

as the government shutdown kind of persists and as Ben was just kind of indicating there feels like tensions are actually only getting kind of worse here what that really does mean for our central bankers for the Fed h how that complicates things for them if they if they don't have the hard data they need Michael they're not getting the government jobs data they're not getting the inflation data what does it mean for them what does it mean for this next meeting >> sure yeah good to be here so there's a lot ...

Meanwhile, some newly released minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting showing officials strongly inclined to lower interest rates with the only dispute seeming to be over how many cuts were coming this year. That's two or potentially as many as three. The Fed deciding on September 17th to lower interest rates by 25 basis points.Joining us right now to talk treasuries and rates is Kamal Shri Kumar. He's the president of Shri Kumar Global Strategies. Would you be lowering rates twice, three times l ...

Market Impact of Government Shutdown - The market has historically performed reasonably well during government shutdowns [2] - Current market strength is attributed to AI excitement, global rallies, and certainty about interest rates [3][4] - Equity investors may not have the longest attention span, focusing on immediate impacts like the potential for an October Fed rate cut [23] - The equity market is currently placid about the government shutdown, caught up in its own preoccupations [25] Economic Data and Analysis - Government shutdown leads to upgrading the priority and significance of available non-government data [6] - There's a risk associated with relying on non-government data, which may not be as reliable as government data [8] - Economists are focusing on broader themes rather than specific monthly numbers due to data uncertainty [15] - The economic data is deferred, not derailed, but the shutdown highlights changes in the economic profession [17] Debt and Deficits - The US has $375 trillion in debt, a $2 trillion budget deficit, and over $1 trillion a year to service the debt [9] - The government shutdown is fundamentally about spending more money than the country has [10] Impact on Employment - A general rule of thumb is a 01 percentage point impact on the economy for each week of the shutdown [19] - If the shutdown extends beyond October 17th, there could be a significant impact on the October unemployment rate, potentially as high as 48% [19] - The US needs to create 40000 jobs to keep the unemployment rate stable [29]

Monetary Policy Stance - The speaker believes the neutral rate is in the mid-2% range and advocates for a swift adjustment to this level [1] - Policy is becoming tighter daily as fiscal and border policies take effect [5] - The speaker does not foresee an imminent economic collapse or labor market crash [5] Factors Influencing Neutral Rate - Fiscal policy is driving up net national borrowing and decreasing net national savings [3] - Immigration policy has caused a significant shift from positive to negative population growth [3] - These shifts in national savings and population growth have implications for the economy's fundamental structure and the neutral rate [3] Risks of Overly Restrictive Policy - Maintaining an excessively restrictive policy for too long poses downside risks to the economy [6] - Prolonged restrictive policy could lead to a meaningful increase in the unemployment rate and failure to meet the employment mandate [6] - The speaker argues that policy was not as tight as perceived last year, but is now tighter than believed due to the declining neutral rate [4]

Now that we've heard from the president of the UN, let's start on the next big focus for the market and that will be the Fed chair's speech this afternoon that follows the Fed's quarterpoint rate cut just last week. Joining us this morning, chief economics correspondent of the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timos is with us. Nick, good to have you.Welcome back. Thanks for having me, Carl. We always sort of have I don't know when pal speaks expressor kind of low expectations.His remarks might not get to monetary ...

The Chicago Fed introducing new labor market indicators this morning that com combine private sector data with official labor statistics for a real time view of hiring layoffs uh and other job information. And join us now Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby. We How you doing, Mr.. President. It's good good to have you on. We got some new data.I'm excited. And you know why I like it. because, you know, say what you will about, you know, the big kurfuffle with the the BLS firing and all that stuff.It did high ...

So what did you make of the quarterpoint cut and also some of the commentary from J Pal uh just talking about the dispersion the summary of economic projections and also our Steve Leeman asked a great question are we on a path for cuts and JP pal came back and said well we're more data dependent something he obviously has said in previous meetings >> well the meeting turned out to be what most of us expected to have happen the 25 basis point cut >> I think what was would have been more problematic was we di ...

In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up.Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. ...

Joining me now are Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley Anastasia Amaroso, chief investment strategist for private wealth at Partners Group. Thank you both very much for being here. Uh Michael, let's start with you because we were just discussing with Steve that there's uh you know expected to be some dissent over the quarter point cut.Uh, do you think that's more emblematic of the macro uncertainty that's out there or just the the fireworks and the politization and all the various headlines ...