Core Insights - The discussion highlights the impact of tariffs on inflation, particularly in the appliance sector, where prices increased by 3.3% in the first seven months of this year compared to a 6% decrease in the same period last year, indicating a direct correlation with tariffs [2] - There is a bullish sentiment towards gold as a diversifier in investment portfolios, with central banks purchasing approximately 1,000 tons of gold annually over the last three years, which is double the previous decade's pace [4] - Retail and institutional investors are increasingly turning to gold as a complementary diversifier, especially during market downturns, where gold has historically performed better than Bitcoin during significant S&P 500 declines [5][6] Economic Indicators - The current economic environment shows a higher 10-year yield following Federal Reserve cuts, contrasting with historical trends where yields would typically decrease during economic slowdowns [7][8] - Inflation remains elevated, with core PCE projected at 2.9% for August, and GDP growth is reported to be over 3% for the third quarter, indicating a robust economy despite a slowing labor market [9][10]

Well, joining me now is Bridge Corano, Wellington fixed income portfolio manager. Bridge, what do you expect to really move the bond market tomorrow. I mean, we assuming we get the quarter point everybody expects there's going to be a lot of contention among uh the Fed voters, possibly more than we've ever had.Yeah, no doubt. I mean, I think we are definitely going to get that 25 basis point cut. Um I think there will probably be three descents to your point asking for 50 basis points.What the market's real ...

What is going on. Let's answer that question with Andy Brener, head of International Fixed Income at National Alliance. He puts out must-read market commentary, and he joins us now.Andy, it's great to have you back on the program. It's been too long. What is happening with global fixed income markets.Brian, it's it's a new month and uh what you have is a lot of supply coming. You have supply coming all throughout Europe and you have supply today in the in the corporate markets. We counted about 25 deals tod ...

Labor Market & Inflation - The labor market is slowing down, potentially due to headwinds from tariffs and trade wars [2][7] - PCE inflation is at 29%, the highest level since February, while the Fed's target is 2% [3] - Inflation expectations one year out are predicting 34%, significantly higher than the 2% target [9] - A quarter of a million less jobs than previously expected in May and June [6] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to focus on the weaker labor market (suggesting rate cuts) or rising inflation (suggesting rate hikes) [4] - Chris Waller suggests focusing on the labor market [4] - The market is pricing in more rate cuts than the Fed may be able to deliver due to persistent inflation [8][10] - GDP on the second read came in at 33% [5] Market Dynamics - The stock market's performance is largely driven by the AI story and the "Magnificent 7," which constitute 40% of the index [11][12] - Nvidia alone accounts for 8% of the S&P 500, an unprecedented concentration for a single stock in the last 50 years [12][13] - The bond market narrative is focused on inflation and the labor market, presenting an inconsistent picture compared to the stock market [13] - The yield curve is steepening, partly due to inflation and fiscal challenges, raising concerns that the Fed might accept permanently higher inflation [9][13]

Garcia. Politics aside, I mean, listen, Cook might stay. We don't know.She might voluntarily resign and then Trump gets replaced or a court will uphold that this is valid and she gets replaced. If she does indeed leave the board in some form and a dove comes in, does it change the way we should look at the Fed or interest rates. >> Well, I think that we should be looking at this either way because I think regardless of what happens, clearly Trump is putting a lot of pressure here.Powell is going to be out n ...

All right, welcome back. The July Federal Reserve minute shedding a little bit of light into the committee's conversations about where interest rates might go. Two members calling for cuts and now the focus of course shifting to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.Rick Santelli joining us now. Rick, you put out a note to us internally about this. On one hand, they're talking about inflation and on the other hand, they're talking about weaker jobs.That's a tough combo. It i ...

Alternative Investments and Private Credit Market - Marathon Asset Management has over $23 billion in assets under management, attracting investments from family offices, wealth channels, insurance channels, and institutional channels [1] - Direct lending and asset-based lending yield 11-12%, while opportunistic credit yields 14-16%, making them more appealing than public credit markets [2][3] - Public credit markets show tight spreads, with investment grade corporate credit at the tightest spread since the 1990s, around the 0 percentile [3] - The high yield bond index OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread) is inside of 300, indicating tight spreads due to a strong economy, corporate earnings, and demand for credit [4][5] Asset-Based Lending (ABL) vs Direct Lending - Asset-based lending (ABL) is lending against hard assets at 65% LTVs, uncorrelated to direct lending which is cash flow based on EBITDA [6] - The correlation coefficient between asset-based lending and direct lending is 04, indicating low correlation despite both being high-yielding asset classes [7] Interest Rate and Economic Outlook - The speaker believes the Fed was slow to raise rates and will be slow to lower them, potentially easing in September 17th after reviewing jobs and CPI reports [9][10] - The current yield curve is V-shaped with SOFR at 435, 3-month bills at 420, 2-year bills at 375, and 10-year notes at 428, which is not normalized and increases government financing costs [11][12] - The speaker suggests the normalized rate for Fed funds should be 3%, given the slowing job growth (35 jobs a month) and economic growth (12% in the first half of the year) [13][14] - The speaker's base case is that economic growth will pick up in the second half of the year, with the front end of the yield curve having 150 basis points to come down [17]

Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady this week, with a potential rate cut in September [1] - Survey data indicates a 27% expectation for a rate cut, despite 100% believing there will be no cut in July [1] - The chance of recession has fallen to 31%, down from 38% in June and 53% in May [2] - Current rate outlook anticipates approximately two rate cuts this year and two more next year [2] - The market is pricing in 100 basis points of cuts, but the 10-year forecast only goes down to 425 basis points, suggesting a steepening of the curve [10][11] - Easing to come will be a recalibration of bringing down the policy rate and in the process resloping the yield curve, potentially another 100 basis points down to 338 basis points [13] Potential Fed Chair Candidates - The race to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell is a three-way tie between Kevin Walsh (24%), Scott Besson (24%), and Hasset (22%) [1][3] - Fed Governor Waller is also a candidate, polling at 14% [3] - Scott Besson suggests a new Fed chair could be picked as early as December [3] - Paul McCaulay advocates for Governor Chris Waller, citing his monetary policy scholarship, experience as a Fed governor, and sound economic principles [5][6][7] Potential Dissent - There is an expectation that Governor Waller and Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman could dissent with the decision not to cut rates [8] - A double dissent from Fed governors hasn't been seen since 1993 [9]

RT Kellan Grenier (@kellangrenier)Don't take my word for it, listen to @SecScottBessent - who is openly targeting the yield curve; “contain long yields” while tax cuts reload.That’s yield suppression (YCC) in everything but name. ...

Market Trends & Predictions - Expectation of a higher yield curve in the future [1] - Anticipation of substantially lower front-end rates with a new, potentially dovish Fed chair within six months [2] - The yield curve steepening trade is a slow-moving process but expected to eventually work [3] Fiscal Policy & Debt - The US is facing fiscally constrained conditions with budget deficits potentially exceeding 6% [4] - High debt-to-GDP ratio (100%) necessitates keeping real interest rates low to manage interest burdens [5] - Japan's reluctance to raise rates significantly despite inflation (2-3%) and wage growth (35%) illustrates a debt management strategy [5] Monetary Policy & Fed - Potential appointment of a dovish Fed chair to lower interest rate costs [4] - The next Fed chair is expected to initiate policies aimed at lowering interest burdens [6] - The strategy to escape a debt trap involves maintaining the lowest possible real interest rates [5]