Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4.1% APY from LendingClub and Sallie Mae Bank [2] - CDs generally provide higher rates than traditional savings accounts, making them an attractive option for savers [2] Group 2: Historical Context - CD rates were relatively high in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3] - The trend of falling CD rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates dropping to about 0.1% APY for 6-month CDs by 2013 [4] - A slight recovery in CD rates occurred between 2015 and 2018 as the Fed gradually increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows [5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Fed began cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a gradual decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offer higher interest rates, but current trends show the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include goals for locking away funds, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation [9]

Core Insights - The Morningstar 2026 Global Outlook Report highlights intermediate bonds as a potential solution for fixed income investors seeking additional yield in 2026 as rate cuts are anticipated [1][2]. Fixed Income Advantages of Intermediate Bonds - Intermediate bonds, maturing in five to ten years, provide a balance between mitigating rate risk and enhancing yield potential in a changing economic environment [2][3]. - These bonds offer yields comparable to cash rates and benefit from capital appreciation as they approach maturity, especially if central banks cut rates [3]. Investment Options - The Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF (BIV) is recommended for those seeking exposure to intermediate bonds, tracking the Bloomberg U.S. 5–10 Year Government/Credit Float Adjusted Index [3]. - For investors willing to accept more credit risk for higher yields, the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) focuses on high-quality corporate bonds with similar maturity dates [4]. - The Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) is suitable for those wanting to maintain a low-risk profile while still pursuing yield potential from intermediate bonds [6]. Market Conditions - The report notes that US investment-grade bonds have historically offered an extra 132 basis points of yield over US Treasuries, but the current spread is near historical lows at just over 70 basis points, despite deteriorating company fundamentals [6]. - The tightening credit spreads between corporate bonds and Treasuries are a consideration for fixed income investors evaluating corporate bond exposure [5]. Fund Characteristics - All three mentioned funds (BIV, VCIT, VGIT) feature a low expense ratio of 5 basis points or $5 per every $10,000 invested [7].

For more about what this could mean for the markets, for the potential decision, CNBC contributor Peter Bookbar joins us now. He is also the CIO at 1 point BFG Wealth Partners CIO. So Peter, we were talking a little bit about this with the Fed and how John Williams sort of opened up the door to like look, yeah, maybe maybe we're we're going to have another cut.We're not we don't have the door open. We don't have the door shut. What do you think about where the Fed is thinking and what data they're going to ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is perceived to have room for changes that could enhance the velocity of the financial system [1][2] - Current borrowing practices indicate that the overnight funds rate is less relevant, suggesting a need for stability in the back end of the yield curve to support mortgage rates and existing home sales [2][3] - A proposed adjustment to the funds rate is to set it at 3%, which could align with market expectations and inflation break-even rates [3][4] Group 2 - The discussion emphasizes the importance of addressing mispricing in the markets to achieve a more favorable rate environment [4] - There is a belief that after adjusting the rate, further evaluations should be made to determine if additional changes are necessary [4]

Double Line Capital founder and CEO Jeffrey Gunllock on this incredibly important day in the markets. Jeffrey, it is only fitting that you are here with us yet again. Welcome back.>> Thanks, Scott. Thanks for having me back again. I think this is our 38th time after Fed Day or 39th.I'm starting to lose count. >> All right. Well, I'm glad we have continu continued the the tradition.I really hit on that uh at the top. December is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it.Um, Chair Pal went out of his way. >> Yea ...

Core Insights - The discussion highlights the impact of tariffs on inflation, particularly in the appliance sector, where prices increased by 3.3% in the first seven months of this year compared to a 6% decrease in the same period last year, indicating a direct correlation with tariffs [2] - There is a bullish sentiment towards gold as a diversifier in investment portfolios, with central banks purchasing approximately 1,000 tons of gold annually over the last three years, which is double the previous decade's pace [4] - Retail and institutional investors are increasingly turning to gold as a complementary diversifier, especially during market downturns, where gold has historically performed better than Bitcoin during significant S&P 500 declines [5][6] Economic Indicators - The current economic environment shows a higher 10-year yield following Federal Reserve cuts, contrasting with historical trends where yields would typically decrease during economic slowdowns [7][8] - Inflation remains elevated, with core PCE projected at 2.9% for August, and GDP growth is reported to be over 3% for the third quarter, indicating a robust economy despite a slowing labor market [9][10]

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but there may be three Fed voters dissenting, potentially advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The market will closely monitor the Fed's summary of economic projections, particularly the dot plot, to gauge the expected policy rate for the current and subsequent years [2] - The market is pricing in nearly 150 basis points of cuts for the next year, expecting the Fed to go below 3%, which may be difficult for the Fed to indicate [3] - The market expects the Fed to cut rates drastically, anticipating a new Fed chair next year to aggressively save the cycle and prolong the expansion [11][12] Bond Market Dynamics - The president's influence on the Fed is priced into the term premium, which is the value in extending out the bond curve [4] - Forward rates indicate that the market expects 10-year Treasury yields to be close to 550 basis points (55%) in 10 years, the highest in over 20 years [5] - The market may be pricing in too much term premium, as 550 basis points (55%) growth for the next 20 years is unlikely [6] - The market is already pricing in the Fed getting back to its 2% inflation target [13] Economic Conditions & Inflation - The economy is showing a two-speed dynamic, with high-income consumers continuing to spend, making the inflation story tricky [8] - Core inflation, excluding shelter, grew at 270 basis points (27%) last month, the highest level in the last two years, indicating high-income consumers are doing well [9] - Small businesses are suffering due to high interest rates, leading to firing and a higher unemployment rate [9] - Tariff policies and immigration could lead to stagflationary conditions, with lower growth and higher inflation [14]

What is going on. Let's answer that question with Andy Brener, head of International Fixed Income at National Alliance. He puts out must-read market commentary, and he joins us now.Andy, it's great to have you back on the program. It's been too long. What is happening with global fixed income markets.Brian, it's it's a new month and uh what you have is a lot of supply coming. You have supply coming all throughout Europe and you have supply today in the in the corporate markets. We counted about 25 deals tod ...

Labor Market & Inflation - The labor market is slowing down, potentially due to headwinds from tariffs and trade wars [2][7] - PCE inflation is at 29%, the highest level since February, while the Fed's target is 2% [3] - Inflation expectations one year out are predicting 34%, significantly higher than the 2% target [9] - A quarter of a million less jobs than previously expected in May and June [6] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to focus on the weaker labor market (suggesting rate cuts) or rising inflation (suggesting rate hikes) [4] - Chris Waller suggests focusing on the labor market [4] - The market is pricing in more rate cuts than the Fed may be able to deliver due to persistent inflation [8][10] - GDP on the second read came in at 33% [5] Market Dynamics - The stock market's performance is largely driven by the AI story and the "Magnificent 7," which constitute 40% of the index [11][12] - Nvidia alone accounts for 8% of the S&P 500, an unprecedented concentration for a single stock in the last 50 years [12][13] - The bond market narrative is focused on inflation and the labor market, presenting an inconsistent picture compared to the stock market [13] - The yield curve is steepening, partly due to inflation and fiscal challenges, raising concerns that the Fed might accept permanently higher inflation [9][13]

Interest Rate & Fed Policy - Potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership, including the possibility of Lisa Cook being replaced, could influence the market's perception of interest rate policies [1] - The market anticipates that President Trump will appoint someone who favors lower interest rates when Powell's term ends next year [2] - The yield curve is steepening due to expectations of short-term rate cuts, which ironically could increase inflationary pressure in the long run [3] - The focus is on whether inflation is under control, given that governments globally have significant debt and desire lower yields to reduce debt servicing costs [8] - Rate cutting cycles have historically been negative for the equity market, with major corrections or bear markets occurring in six out of the last eight instances [9][10] Inflation & Bond Market - Despite pressure to lower rates, inflation may persist and could become a long-term issue [4] - The gap between the 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields has widened to its largest in several years [4] - If rate cuts stimulate inflation, long-term yields are expected to rise [7] - The bond market may challenge the Fed's policies by selling off, leading to higher yields [13] Global Economic Context - The trend of focusing on inflation being not under control and governments having massive debt piles is happening globally [8] - The Bank of England cut rates, but now they have inflation at an 18-month high, and bond yields have been rising [11] - There is a good chance that a rate-cutting cycle could be initiated because things are breaking down globally [12]