Hello and welcome to Asking for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton and for the next half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here's some of the trends we're going to be diving into.It was a mixed day on Wall Street. Despite investors getting the news they wanted a first Fed Reserve rate cut of the year, at the end of the session, the Dow did end higher. The S&P and the NASDAQ ...

🇺🇸 Golden Donald Trump statue holding Bitcoin appears outside the U.S. Capitol on Fed rate cut day https://t.co/7CBKznxuoB ...

Interest Rate Impact - The Fed rate cut will affect US households' savings and investments [1] - The Fed rate cut will affect what US households owe on loans such as mortgages [1]

But what we can say is this that over the course of this year we've kept our poly policy at a restrictive level and and people have different views but a clearly restrictive level I would say so and we were able to do that uh over the course of this year because the labor market was in very solid condition with strong job creation and all those things. I think if you start go back to April and now look at the revised job creation numbers for for May, June, July and August you can kind of I can no longer say ...

Market Trends & Regulatory Landscape - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling potential for two more cuts before year-end [1][2] - Senator Elizabeth Warren and other Democrats questioned David Saxs' role and compliance with government employee limits regarding crypto regulation [3][4] - Bullish crypto exchange secured licenses from the New York Department of Financial Services for digital asset trading and custody [6] - Increased acceptance of stablecoins in Washington DC and within the regulated universe is observed [12] Investment & VC Trends - Dragonfly, a $4 billion crypto-focused investment firm, notes increased investment in payments and stablecoin companies [10][11] - Stablecoin and payments deals accounted for nearly 8% of all deals, the highest percentage since 2021 [18] - Amount raised from stablecoin and payments accounted for about 14% of the total amount raised [18] - Institutional adoption of stablecoins is driving VC and investor interest [13][14] Stablecoin Use Cases & Adoption - Cross-border B2B payments are a fast-growing area for stablecoin use, estimated at $100 billion last year [24][25] - Emerging markets are showing increased usage of stablecoin-backed cards and NEO banks [27][28] - Remittance is another key use case, with up to 10% of cross-border peer-to-peer remittance between the US and India happening via stablecoin rails [29] Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) - There's an acceleration of investing in and interest in digital asset treasury companies [32] - Panta Capital closed more than $500 million in funding to launch a Solana-backed digital asset treasury called Helas [31]

Market Trend - The Fed cut rates [1] - The frozen housing market is expected to thaw [1] Investment Opportunity - $OPEN is expected to be a significant beneficiary of the thawing housing market [1]

Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates a rate cut, but the extent of the Federal Reserve's dovishness may lead to market disappointment [1] - There is considerable uncertainty and variability in expectations regarding future interest rate paths beyond the immediate cut [3] - Disagreement exists regarding the relative importance of inflation and unemployment, the two factors the Fed considers [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The market is urging the Fed to prioritize unemployment concerns and continue cutting rates [5] - Approximately 80,000 people in the US turn 65 every week, impacting the workforce denominator [6] - Companies have shifted from hoarding employees during COVID to minimizing labor costs due to rising input costs [8][9][10] - Companies are not fully passing increased costs to consumers, leading to labor cost reductions [10] - Natural attrition is occurring in the labor market due to retirements, even with companies not actively hiring [12][13] Inflationary Pressures - There are inflationary trends in the system, but companies are currently absorbing many costs [13] - Tariffs can create a multi-time inflationary effect if their costs are gradually integrated into prices over time [15]

Interest Rate and Housing Market - Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut is expected to influence mortgage rates, with the rate on a 30-year mortgage already hitting a three-year low [1] - Nine rate cuts since 1980 during non-recessionary times may not significantly impact the long end of the curve [4] - Lower rates or reduced building costs are necessary to address the housing affordability crisis in the United States [7] - Lower rates will be very accommodative to the housing sector, including both single-family and multi-family [9] Housing Construction Costs and Tariffs - Survey indicates that the cost of manufacturing single-family homes has not increased due to tariffs [9] - Inflation has been removed from single-family and multi-family construction industries, with costs currently flat [10] Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - FHFA director has focused on growing the top and bottom lines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare them for going public [13] - The government aims to maximize returns to taxpayers while avoiding increased borrowing costs for consumers during the IPO [14][15] - The expectation is that the federal government will maintain some form of guarantee to reassure investors and keep consumer borrowing costs stable [15][16] Commercial Real Estate - New York City is experiencing a renaissance with people returning to the office [17] - There's growing interest and potential opportunities to invest in San Francisco's commercial real estate market [20][21]

Tariffs and artificial intelligence are deflationary forces that have forced the Fed to capitulate.They must cut rates today.50 basis points is the signal the market needs to know they are serious. ...

QCP: The Fed is expected to start its easing cycle with a 25 bp cut to 4.00–4.25%, with markets pricing six cuts through 2026. Focus is on the SEP and Powell’s press conference for guidance. Risk assets have rallied, but any shift in the dot plot or firmer messaging could test sentiment. Crypto continues to lag equities despite looser liquidity. https://t.co/6grByRluX2 ...