Federal Reserve (The Fed) Policy & Interest Rates - The market is closely watching the upcoming Fed meeting for signals about future interest rate cuts, particularly the dot plot which will indicate intentions for the next three meetings [3] - The market anticipates at least one rate cut, unless weak retail sales data emerges before the Fed meeting [3] - There is potential for dissenting opinions within the Fed, with some members possibly advocating for no cut or a 50 basis points cut [4] - The current Fed funds rate should ideally be about 100 basis points below the 10-year Treasury yield, suggesting a target rate just over 3% [7] - Three rate cuts of 25 basis points each over the next three meetings would bring the rate down 75 basis points, moving closer to the 35% range [8] Market Trends & Investment Strategy - AI and AI-related stocks are expected to remain strong through year-end, potentially driven by fund managers seeking to improve year-to-date performance [10][11] - If the market anticipates three rate cuts this year and more next year, small-cap stocks, which are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, are likely to perform well [11] - Concerns about stagflation, driven by weaker economic sentiment and higher inflation expectations, are present but may not be as significant as mainstream media hype suggests [11][12][13] - The market may react positively to indications of more aggressive rate cuts (e.g., 50 basis points), suggesting a shift towards a more dovish stance [6]

The dollar is on track for its sharpest weekly drop in more than a month ahead of a Fed meeting that’s expected to launch a series of interest-rate cuts https://t.co/8JeTcEdWhu ...

Time now for money power politics. Today we got two key pieces of information about where our economy is headed. Last month, consumer prices rose by almost 3%.That is the biggest gain since January. Jobless claims also hit a 4-year high. This all comes ahead, of course, next week's Fed meeting where they are widely expected to cut rates.And the markets clearly think those cuts are still coming. Despite today's news on inflation and the labor market, what did the market do. It went up.Joining me now to discu ...

All right, so estimates 2.9% headline. I know Jay Pal said 2.9% was fine for PCE. Is 2.9% okay for CPI knowing that we have this Fed meeting coming up just uh less than a week, just about 6 days away.And if it comes in in line or lower, what do you think that means for the market. Well, tough questions, right. A lot of questions.Uh 2.9%'s above the Fed's target. I mean, the CPI runs about a half a point above the consumer expenditure deflator, which is what the Fed targets, and that's the 2% target. So if y ...

Nomination of Steven Myron - Senate Banking Committee approved Steven Myron as the next Fed Governor with a 13-11 vote [1] - All Republicans voted in favor, while all Democrats voted against [1] - There is a possibility for a final vote before the next Fed meeting [2] Concerns and Arguments - Concerns were raised about Myron's dual role and independence due to his leave of absence from the White House [3] - Democrats were swayed by the dual role concern to vote against him [3] - Republicans believe his short tenure mitigates any potential problems [4] Market Outlook - A Fed rate cut is anticipated next week [4]

Mark, I want to start with a question that is from our previous guest, Puja Kumar, over at TD Bank. She was saying there's really nothing that payrolls or inflation could give us next week that would put this Fed cut in doubt in September. Do you agree with that. I don't agree with that.I know that actually there are many people in markets who are in that camp, I would say is the majority view. But I think there is still a risk of 50 basis points and I still think there's a risk of nothing. I think the non- ...

The US stock market is entering the earnings dead zone. All we have to look forward to is a Fed meeting that could dash rate-cut hopes, @jonathanjlevin says (via @opinion) https://t.co/dFoiLhxpld ...

The seasonality aspect is something we talk about post Labor Day a lot because since the 1950s it has been depending on time frame either the worst or one of the worst. If you juxtapose that with all of the market catalyst that we are anticipating for the coming few weeks. Do we think this is a weaker setup that deserves paying more attention to this time around.Uh I think most likely yes. I mean you know why do we have that seasonality. People people go away they go on vacation.They take a few weeks and th ...

So was you hate being wrong sitting here 87% chance last night now down to 73%. Does the stock not bond does the stock market care about a rate cut. >> I think so.I you know there was this time last year when the S&P was about a,000 points lower than we are now. The market was pricing in six rate cuts in 2025. Here we are now a,000 points higher.We're talking about two maybe three. So I would say all of that good news in terms of just rate cuts are priced in. So the short answer is absolutely.The market wil ...

Well, um, when I watched, uh, the chair at his press conference, uh, and read others people's comments, it seemed like the decision not to cut was in part dependent upon the solid jobs picture. Um, and that was what they were presented with at the time of the meeting. Um, and as Kane said, when the facts change, I change my opinion.uh and that's why I suggested that well in fact the facts had changed and you know the way to clean it up I think would have been to immediately uh follow through with a cut. Um ...