Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's current situation is heavily influenced by political pressures, which limits its ability to make independent monetary policy decisions [3][4][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve is facing a significant political assault that undermines its independence, making it difficult for officials to acknowledge economic data [3][4]. - There is uncertainty regarding the statements that Fed Chair Jay Powell will make during the press conference, especially in light of recent political scrutiny [2][3]. Group 2: Potential Leadership Changes - Discussions are ongoing about the next head of the Federal Reserve, with various candidates being considered, including Rick Reer and Christopher Waller [4][5][7]. - Christopher Waller is noted for not having made political donations, which aligns with the Fed's tradition of maintaining political neutrality [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence has significantly declined, with a notable labor market differential reported, which historically indicates a recession [10]. - Inflation metrics, such as Trueflation TRU at 1.15%, suggest that inflation is not currently a pressing issue for corporations, despite ongoing cost-cutting measures [11][12]. Group 4: Employment and Cost Pressures - The labor market is experiencing challenges, with high-paying corporate jobs being lost, impacting middle-income workers [15]. - Rising costs in essentials, particularly grocery prices and gasoline, are straining consumers, although rents are beginning to fall [13][14]. Group 5: Future Rate Cuts - Expectations are that meaningful rate cuts may not occur until June, and there is speculation that Powell may not act decisively on monetary policy before his term ends [15][16]. - Powell's acknowledgment of labor market weaknesses could influence future policy decisions, as failing to address these issues may tarnish his legacy [17].

Market Overview - Crypto markets are experiencing a pause amid negative news, with Bitcoin's price stabilizing and gold prices rising significantly [1] - The USD index has decreased by almost 3% this week and over 10% in the last year, impacting risk assets [3] Government and Regulatory Environment - There is a 76% probability of a US government shutdown by January 31, which is causing caution among institutions [2] - Legislative progress on the US Crypto Clarity Act has slowed, contributing to market uncertainty [2] FOMC Impact - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%, with no early cuts expected [2] - The FOMC news is influencing capital flows, with gold outperforming equities and becoming a safe-haven asset [4] Gold and Bitcoin Comparison - Gold has reached an all-time high of $5,280 per ounce, outperforming the S&P 500 by over 100% [4] - Bitcoin is trading around $89,000, showing a slight increase of 1.2% on the day, but remains in a medium-term downtrend [6][8] - Tether holds over 140 tons of gold, valued at approximately $24 billion, highlighting gold's significance in the current market [5] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's market cap is significantly smaller than gold's $36 trillion, suggesting potential for growth if liquidity conditions improve [6] - The current market conditions are reminiscent of historical currency weakening prior to coordinated interventions [3]

ADP reported that US private payrolls rose an average of 7,750 per week in the four weeks ending January 3, the smallest weekly increase in six weeks.The risk of another partial government shutdown is negative for stocks. Senate Democrats threatened to block a government funding deal over Department of Homeland Security/ICE funding after the ICE shooting of an ICU nurse in Minnesota on Saturday. There could be a partial government shutdown when the current stopgap funding measure expires this Friday.Stocks ...

Tomorrow is going to be a big day, I would assume.FOMC meeting, while the Dollar is hitting a new low since 2022.Fireworks, that's what we can expect. ...

ADP reported that US private payrolls rose an average of 7,750 per week in the four weeks ending January 3, the smallest weekly increase in six weeks.The risk of another partial government shutdown is also weighing on stocks. Senate Democrats threatened to block a government funding deal over Department of Homeland Security/ICE funding after the ICE shooting of an ICU nurse in Minnesota on Saturday. There could be a partial government shutdown when the current stopgap funding measure expires this Friday.Sto ...

[music] Hello and welcome to Market Domination Overtime. Let's take a look at how markets ended the day right here on the Wi-Fi Interactive. Large caps back in control.They've been underperforming the small caps for most of January. But here we got the Dow up 313 points or about 2/3 of a percent off of the highs of the day there. So, not a bad way to start this week, especially with this big storm causing a lot of outages over the weekends.NASDAQ Composite up about 4/10en of a percent and the S&P 500 up abo ...

Jared Blikre breaks down the latest market moves on Market Domination for January 26, 2026. Federal Reserve officials are expected to hold interest rates where they are at this week's FOMC meeting, which kicks off tomorrow (Tuesday, January 27) and will conclude on Wednesday (January 28). FBB Capital Partners President Mike Mussio speaks with Jared about how many rate cuts he forecasts for 2026 and why the Fed is expected to hold rates steady in January. Mussio also discusses expanding opportunities he sees ...

The FOMC meeting is scheduled for next Wednesday.Markets have fully priced in no rate cut, with only a 4.4% chance of one happening. https://t.co/2jIJFHKgX1 ...

Core Inflation and CPI Data - U.S. inflation re-accelerated in December with CPI-U increasing by 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) and 2.7% year-over-year (y/y), primarily driven by a 0.4% m/m rise in shelter costs [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y, supporting the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates into the January 29, 2026, FOMC meeting [2] Market Reaction and Rate Outlook - Rate pricing indicates a strong likelihood of holding rates steady, with probabilities for "no change" clustered around the high-70% range as observed in late December [3] - The shelter-led CPI keeps the term premium stable, while the low core inflation limits the risk of prolonged higher rates that typically affect Bitcoin (BTC) trades [4] Implications for Crypto Markets - A CPI increase of 0.3% alongside a core inflation of 0.2% keeps the front end of the yield curve anchored, affecting crypto market reactions by shifting focus back to real yields and positioning [5] - Systematic funds that rely on macro surprise indices do not receive new signals, while discretionary trading desks continue to treat BTC as a rates-volatility proxy due to lower carry costs associated with subdued implied volatility [5]

All right, let's start off. How much weight is actually on this jobs report when we know there's going to be other key inflation reports coming up later this week. Another jobs report before the Fed meets again and makes this decision.How much weight are you putting on this. >> Yeah, I think it is an important one. Um, but there is going to be some weird dynamics in the data that we're getting this week.We know that maybe errors around this data are a bit bigger than usual just because of delayed collection ...