Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing a decline due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside mixed economic indicators from the US and Europe [1][5][6]. Economic Indicators - US retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of 0.2% [3]. - Retail sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.7% month-over-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.4% [3]. - The US manufacturing production unexpectedly rose by 0.2% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a 0.2% decline [3]. - The NAHB housing market index for September remained unchanged at a 2.75-year low of 32, which was below the expected increase to 33 [4]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The market is pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with an 84% chance of a second 25 basis point cut at the next meeting on October 28-29 [5]. - Overall, the market anticipates a total reduction of 69 basis points in the federal funds rate by year-end, bringing it down to 3.64% from the current 4.33% [5]. Currency Movements - The euro is appreciating against the dollar, up by 0.69% and reaching a 4-year high, driven by dollar weakness and central bank divergence [6]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, contrasting with the Fed's expected rate cuts [6]. Eurozone Economic News - Eurozone Q2 labor costs increased from Q1, indicating rising costs in the region [7]. - The German ZEW survey for September showed unexpected improvement in economic growth expectations [7]. - However, Eurozone industrial production for July rose less than anticipated, indicating mixed economic performance [7].

To help set up the trading day, we go as usual to Kevin Hanks, co-host of Fast Market. He is live at the CBOE. And of course, everybody is still talking about the Fed um and what the members are thinking and doing and the changing of the guard and the vulnerability of the Fed too.Um tell me a little bit about what as they be begin the meeting today and tomorrow we'll find the details. >> Good morning, Nicole. Yeah, day one of the Fed meeting, you know, has got some headlines ba ba b b b b b b b b b b b b b ...

VONNIE: GOOD MORNING. HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW. TENSIONS AS THE APPEALS BOARD BLOCKS PRESIDENT TRUMP FROM FIRING GOVERNOR COOK AND THE SENATE IT PROVES STEPHEN MIRAN TO THE BOARD. THE SEC SAYS IT IS REDUCING THE FREQUENCY OF QUARTERLY REPORTS AND A 25TH RECORD HIGH OF THIS YEAR ALONE. EQUITY FUTURES EXTENDING GAINS AS INVESTORS AWAIT RETAIL DATA AHEAD OF THE FED'S DECISION. WE HAVE S&P AND NASDAQ FUTURES POINTING TO NICE GAINS ON AI ENTHUSIASM AND FED RATE CUT ENTHUSIASM. THE FIX IS ABOVE 15 TODAY. WE H ...

ETHEREUM PUMPED AFTER THE LAST 3 FOMC MEETINGS.NEXT FED MEETING IS TOMORROW, RATE CUTS EXPECTED. https://t.co/Nx64Ph2GJ5 ...

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 273 points, a decrease of 06% [2] - NASDAQ closed up 05%, showing an opposite trend to the Dow [2] - The S&P 500 narrowly missed a record, down five basis points [2] - The S&P 500 is up 16% for the week, NASDAQ is up over 2%, and the Dow is up almost 1% [3] - Communication services led sector performance, up 085%, followed by utilities and consumer discretionary, each up about 05% [4] - Tesla was up 736%, while Amazon was down about 08% [5] - China's market has shown significant gains this week, with Alibaba up 14%, Baidu up over 12%, and JDcom up 7% [7] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Market expects a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed [8][9] - The Fed may focus more on employment, potentially deemphasizing inflation [9][10] - The market has priced in about 150 basis points of easing, but the Fed might not be as aggressive [12] - The unemployment rate is at 43%, and inflation is around 27% to 29% [13] IPO Market - The week has been the busiest since 2021 for companies raising over 100 million in their IPOs [26] - Seven big deals this week raised about 44 billion, making 2025 the best year for IPO volume since 2021 [27] - Expect three to five large traditional IPO issuances per week through the end of November or early December [29] Housing Market - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 635% [31] - Mortgage rates have fallen due to weaker economic data and expectations of Fed rate cuts [33] - Home price growth is slower than inflation [35] - Lower mortgage rates are helping with affordability, but broader economic factors also influence buyer decisions [34][37]

Economic Activity & Labor Market - Most of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported little or no change in economic activity overall [1] - 11 of the 12 Federal Reserve districts describe little or no net change in overall employment levels [2] - Real wage growth seems dismal, weighing on consumer spending and activity [1][4][5] Inflation & Prices - Price growth is characterized as moderate or modest in ten of the 12 districts [3] - Strong input price growth is outpacing moderate selling prices, impacting the inflation landscape [3] - Tariffs are creating price pressures, but weakening real wages are causing demand to retract [4][5] Monetary Policy & Fed Decision - The market widely expects a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [6] - Economic uncertainty and tariffs are frequently cited as negative factors [5][13] - Weak local conditions in Kansas City, presided over by a hawkish member, could influence voting for a rate cut [7][8][9][10] - A new Fed board member could advocate for a rate cut, potentially influencing discussions [16] - There is enough evidence to warrant a cut, but the timing (September vs later) is uncertain [14][15]

💥BREAKING:TRADERS NOW PREDICTING A 44.7% CHANCE OF A 50BPS CUT BY THE OCTOBER 29TH FOMC MEETING.BULLISH FOR MARKETS! 🚀 https://t.co/BQ15YYJdS7 ...

Federal Reserve (FOMC) and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady at 45% [2] - Quantitative tightening (QT) continues, with the Fed reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, although the pace has slowed [2][3] - The market is pricing in a higher probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in September [11][48] - Tariffs could cause a one-time price increase, influencing the Fed's decisions regarding rate cuts [26][27][30] Crypto Market Analysis - Lower interest rates and no quantitative tightening typically lead to outperformance of altcoins or higher-risk assets [7] - Bitcoin has outperformed altcoins during quantitative tightening and higher interest rates [7][8][9] - Altcoins have been bleeding against Bitcoin, with altcoins down against ETH (Ethereum) by approximately 45% since ETH went home back in April [8][19] - The industry anticipates all Bitcoin pairs may decline around September or October, potentially due to unmet expectations of rate cuts [15][17] Market Outlook and Strategy - The industry expects the 10-year yield is likely heading back up to 5%, and the dollar is expected to build a base over the next several months, potentially rising in 2026 [20] - Ethereum is expected to break through $4,000 within the next few months [22] - Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance could increase together, with liquidity flowing into these "blue-chip" cryptocurrencies [23][24] - Assets that are performing well are more likely to continue performing well [44]

LIVE: Jerome Powell at the FOMC After Fed Keeps Rates Steady https://t.co/6qFrHHGFmL ...

Economic Indicators - Pre-market futures show slight increases with Dow up +20 points, S&P 500 up +8 points, and Nasdaq up +50 points, following economic news [1] - ADP reported +104K new private-sector jobs in July, a significant rebound from the revised -23K in June and exceeding the consensus estimate of +64K [3][6] - Q2 GDP growth was reported at +3.0%, surpassing the expected +2.3% and marking a recovery from the -0.5% in Q1 [7][8] Company Earnings - Kraft Heinz (KHC) exceeded bottom-line earnings estimates by +7.8%, reporting 69 cents per share [2] - V.F. Corp. (VFC) reported a smaller-than-expected loss, improving by +31.5% [2] - Etsy (ETSY) missed Zacks consensus estimates by -53.7% [2] Sector Performance - The job growth breakdown shows Goods-producing jobs at +30% and Services at +70%, with Leisure & Hospitality leading at +46K new jobs [4] - Small companies added +12K jobs, while medium and large businesses contributed +46K jobs [5] - The Core PCE Price Index rose to +2.5%, indicating stronger-than-expected economic growth without runaway inflation [8][9] Market Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain interest rates at +4.25-4.50% during the upcoming meeting [9] - Anticipation surrounds whether voting members will support or oppose Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stance on interest rates [10] - Major companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) are set to report earnings after the market closes [11]