Economic Overview - Pre-market futures show slight increases with Dow up +20 points, S&P 500 up +8, and Nasdaq up +50, following positive economic news [1] - Q2 GDP growth outperformed expectations at +3.0%, rebounding from a -0.5% decline in Q1, marking the strongest quarter for jobs growth since Q3 2024 [7][8] - Consumption increased to +1.4% from +0.5% in Q1, while the Core PCE Price Index rose to +2.5%, indicating robust economic growth without runaway inflation [8][10] Employment Data - ADP reported +104K new private-sector jobs in July, a significant recovery from the revised -23K in June and exceeding the consensus estimate of +64K [3][6] - Job growth was led by the Leisure & Hospitality sector with +46K jobs, while Education & Healthcare saw a decline of -38K [4] - Small companies added +12K jobs, while medium and large businesses contributed +46K jobs, indicating a diverse hiring landscape [5] Company Earnings - Kraft Heinz (KHC) exceeded earnings expectations by +7.8%, reporting 69 cents per share [2] - V.F. Corp. (VFC) reported a smaller-than-expected loss, improving by +31.5% [2] - Etsy (ETSY) missed earnings estimates by -53.7%, indicating potential challenges in its business model [2] Market Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain interest rates at +4.25-4.50% during its meeting, reflecting a stable economic environment [10] - The upcoming earnings reports from major companies like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, and Ford are anticipated to impact market sentiment [12]

What kind of agreement can we make today at the Federal Reserve. What can we agree on. You be really interesting to see if the committee is getting more comfortable, having more conviction in there.You know, forecast that inflation may rise this year, but then, you know, come back down. So I think a lot of this discussion around what are the risks of the persistently high inflation. We know from Governor Chris Warren that he sees those risks as very low and that's why he's in favor of a cut.But is the commi ...

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Earnings Reports - Q2 earnings season is ramping up with major companies like Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, and Amazon set to report earnings this week [2][3] - A total of 164 companies in the S&P 500 are expected to release their earnings results by August 1st [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, maintaining the current rate of +4.25-4.50% [4] - There is only a 2% chance that the Fed will cut rates at this meeting, with a 67% probability of a 25 basis-point cut in September [5] Labor Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims have decreased to 217K, but the labor market may be weakening as ADP reported a negative -33K jobs filled in June, the first decline in over two years [7] - The BLS report indicated +147K new jobs in June, but only about 70K were outside government hires, which may not be sufficient to offset the retiring workforce [8]

Group 1 - The macro market atmosphere remains neutral to bullish, with concerns about Powell's dismissal easing after Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, leading to a recovery in market sentiment and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [1][3] - Gold and silver prices experienced a decline, with COMEX gold down 0.51% and silver down 0.26%, while copper prices saw an increase of 3.99% on COMEX [2][22] - The copper market is closely monitoring the upcoming implementation of U.S. tariffs on imported copper, with market sentiment affected by rising Treasury yields and a rebound in the dollar [3][6] Group 2 - The precious metals market faced pressure as risk appetite increased, leading to a pullback in gold prices despite macroeconomic support for high price levels [4][54] - COMEX copper prices reached a historical high before retreating, indicating significant resistance above 80,000 CNY/ton, with domestic refined copper consumption showing signs of seasonal weakness [6][12] - The COMEX copper price curve remains in contango, with inventories nearing 250,000 tons, suggesting potential for further accumulation in U.S. copper stocks [7][8] Group 3 - The copper concentrate TC weekly index increased slightly, indicating a stable yet low activity in the spot market, with processing fees showing a slight recovery [9][12] - COMEX gold and silver inventories increased, with gold inventory rising to 37.76 million ounces and silver to approximately 50.03 million ounces [39][44] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 13 tons, indicating a continued preference for gold among investors [44]

The emerging divide among Federal Reserve officials over the outlook for interest rates is being driven largely by differing expectations for how tariffs might affect inflation, the minutes of the FOMC’s June 17-18 meeting showed https://t.co/JHdjAzYaF5 ...

the curtain, but he just came around the curtain. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. >> Good afternoon.My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position, the unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal, but has been running somewhat above our 2% longer run ...

It's time now for today's strategy session. Riskoff sentiment gripping today's trading action as stocks open in the red, but market momentum holding up some stocks trading near record highs. Can the market continue its rally despite a growing wall of worry for investors.Joining us now, we've got Kenny Pulkari, who is the Slate Stone Wealth chief market strategist. Kenny, one of the things that you and I were talking about in the break and and perhaps is within that wall of worry to a certain extent is the r ...