So, with today's inflation report, can we add rate cuts to the list of bullish market indicators and will that keep this rally going. Well, joining us now is Renaissance Macro Research head of US economics Neil Duta and Evans May wealth managing partner Brooke May. Great to have you both both here.And Brooke, I'm going to kick this conversation off with you because so far earning season has been incredibly strong when you look at these beat rates much much higher than we've seen uh previously and and histor ...

a TGIF from Yao Finance's New York City headquarter studios. I'm Yao Finance executive editor Brian Sazy. You're watching Grayscale Investments ringing the open bell.The New York Stock Exchange AXG getting trading underway over at the NASDAQ. Now, a busy week for corporate earnings ends with, you guessed it, friends, more corporate earnings. Ford cutting its outlook due to a supplier fire.But I found this interesting from the earnings call last night. Company lowered its expected tariff costs this year by $ ...

CPI Data Analysis - Headline CPI increased by 0.3%, slightly below expectations [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.2%, less than the anticipated 0.3% [1] - Year-over-year CPI stands at 3%, exceeding the previous reading of 2.9% [1][2] - Year-over-year CPI excluding food and energy is also at 3%, a slight decrease from the prior 3.1% [2] Market Reaction - Interest rates are declining while stocks are rising, attributed to the CPI figures being lower than expected [2] Fed Perspective - The current CPI figures are still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2] - The market sentiment suggests a slowing labor market, potentially influencing future Fed rate cuts [4] - The current CPI data may not strongly indicate that the Fed is nearing its target [4]

Inflation Data Analysis - Headline CPI rose 03% month-over-month, slightly below expectations [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 02% month-over-month, also less than anticipated [1] - Year-over-year CPI stands at 3%, lower than the expected 31% but higher than the previous 29% [2] - Core CPI year-over-year also comes in at 3%, cooling slightly from the last reading of 31% [2] Market Reaction - Interest rates are moving down, and stocks are moving up in response to the lower-than-expected CPI data [2] - The market views the slowing labor market as a positive sign for potential Fed rate cuts [3] Economic Indicators & Consumer Behavior - Credit card activity is up over 75% year-over-year, outpacing inflation [7] - There's a growing trend of consumers paying with cash to receive discounts, potentially underreporting spending [8] - The stock market is considered by some as the most honest metric of the US economy, less influenced by political factors compared to surveys [6]

Market Outlook - The CPI report is considered a binary event, with risks skewed to the upside for the equity market, especially with upcoming hyperscaler earnings, Fed meeting, and US-China meeting [2][3] - Unless CPI comes in really hot, investors might want to position more bullishly into those events next week [3] Gold as a Hedge - After the selloff, gold is considered a great entry point, driven by fiat currency devaluation [4] - The industry uses a measure of M2 money supply divided by the gold price to gauge the currency cycle [5] - The industry identifies a currency devaluation cycle that started in 2022, coinciding with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the hiking cycle [6] - Regression analysis identifies budget balance, fiscal deficits, debt to GDP, and inflation as drivers of the currency cycle, all expected to remain negative [7] - Historically, the S&P 500 underperforms gold during devaluation, making gold a good hedge against S&P 500 and devaluation [8]

Equities traders are likely to shrug off any evidence of stubborn inflation in Friday’s CPI report https://t.co/wJ1QJ0yNKK ...

Market Trends & Volatility - Binance led a $3.2 billion stablecoin inflow, indicating traders anticipated market volatility before the CPI report [1]

Federal Reserve Policy - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, reaching its lowest level since September 17th [1] - Fed Chair Powell suggested, but did not explicitly state, that rate cuts are likely to continue [3] - The Fed judged it appropriate to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance at its September meeting [4] - Powell indicated the Fed might soon halt the reduction of its balance sheet (QT) due to signs of tightening liquidity conditions [6] - Powell's comments did not decisively endorse future rate cuts, but he also did not push back against market expectations for two cuts this year [8] Economic Outlook - Rising downside risks to employment have shifted the Fed's assessment of the balance of risks [4] - Data suggests higher downside risks for employment and inflation, primarily due to tariffs rather than a broader inflation issue [5] - Prior to the shutdown, data indicated the economy was on a firmer growth path [5] - The Fed is monitoring liquidity conditions, including repo rates [6] Market Observations - The market reacted positively to Powell's comments regarding the potential halt of balance sheet reduction [6] - The market firmly expects two rate cuts this year [8]

We're looking at live pictures of the New York Stock Exchange. Uh the exchange just finishing a moment of silence in remembrance those killed in the September 11th terrorist attacks. Ringing the bell to commemorate the event is 911 day.uh uh an organization that works to transform the anniversary of 9/11 into the largest day of service in America. I'm Y finance executive editor Brian Sazi and this is opening bid. Here's what I'm watching out of the gate today.Lots to get to. The hot potato gets passed to th ...

Market Trends & Potential Risks - Bond investors may be overly optimistic before today's CPI report [1] - US two-year Treasury yields reached their lowest point since April after a month-long rally [1]