Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for oil prices in the low to mid $60s for the remainder of 2025 and $60 in 2026, despite geopolitical concerns [6][10]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks have increased due to Israel's attack on Iran, raising the worst-case scenario probability for oil supply disruptions to 17% [3][4]. - The recent spike in oil prices by 5% reflects heightened security risks in the Middle East, with a 7% probability of a worst-case scenario where supply impacts extend beyond Iranian exports [6][10]. - The US aluminum tariffs have created significant uncertainty in the aluminum market, with the US Midwest premium (MWP) currently insufficient to incentivize necessary imports [7][10]. Oil Market Summary - Global oil demand averaged 103.9 million barrels per day (mbd) in June, showing a year-over-year increase of 560 thousand barrels per day (kbd) [10]. - Total liquid inventories surged by 34 million barrels (mb) in the first week of June, with crude oil stocks rising by 27 mb [10]. - An attack on Iran could potentially spike oil prices to $120, impacting US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 5% [6]. Aluminum Market Summary - The surprise increase in US aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to a sideways outlook on aluminum prices, with participants at the Harbor Aluminum Summit expressing uncertainty about future demand [7][10]. - The current MWP is around 60 cents per pound, which barely covers the tariff, indicating a need for the MWP to rise if the tariff remains unchanged [10]. - Existing inventory can buffer the market temporarily, but it will deplete quickly, leading to potential price increases if the tariff situation does not change [10]. Metals Activity Summary - China's steel output has slowed sharply, reaching its lowest rate since 2018, with a 5% drop compared to previous months [9]. - The annualized run-rate of steel production in China is at 967 million tons (Mt), suggesting a potential peak in production for 2025 [9].

First, let's get straight to Megan Cassella with the latest on Israel and Iran and how Washington is responding. Morning again, Megan. Hey, good morning again, Carl.The president making a round of calls to reporters this morning, telling various outlets, including the Wall Street Journal, that he and the administration knew about Israel's plans to attack Iran before they happened. He also called the attacks very successful. Said that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, an ...

Noddy When it comes to the oil market, there are no immediate outages at this moment, but the risk calculus has certainly changed. How has it changed for you overnight. So when we look at exports from Iran right now, they've been around 1.7% million barrels per day.This is very much in question. Will that continue. What will be the focus.And when we think about where the market has been positioned, we've had three surges of more than 400,000 barrels per day and expected production out of the Middle East. Bu ...

We are watching very closely the reaction to everything we're hearing from the Middle East after that Iranian strike, the strike on Iran from Israel. You can see this morning that the futures have pulled back substantially. Dow futures are off by over 500 points this morning.The Nasdaq indicated down by about 310. The S&P futures off by 70 and this is coming as uh we had been looking at positive issuances from the United from the US stocks. Uh we were looking yesterday at the stocks up across the board once ...