Key Takeaways Lennar shares dropped 11.3% post-Q3 earnings, with EPS and revenues down 48.7% and 6.4% year over year.LEN's ASP fell 6.7% to $393K, with Q4 guidance at $380K-$390K, as pricing cuts pressure profitability.Gross margin shrank 430 bps to 18%, and FY25 EPS estimates slid to $8.58 amid ongoing housing softness.Lennar Corporation (LEN) has trended downward 11.3% since announcing its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings. It has outperformed the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry, but is ...

Tim, your final trade. >> I'm going to get myself a new neck tie. I'm going to treat you to one, Brian.In the meantime, I should have been listening to Karen all these years on Johnson Controls. Key part of that data center trade, electrical components, etc. Karen, >> ah, we are nice to say. Um, on it, we talked about this a lot last week.PPH, this is ETF, big cap pharma. I like it. I think there's value in this space.More to uh you saw the home builders downgraded and everything was down. I don't think you ...

Core Insights - D.R. Horton (DHI) and NVR are two prominent stocks in the Building Products - Home Builders sector, with DHI currently offering better value for investors compared to NVR [1] Valuation Metrics - DHI has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a stronger earnings outlook than NVR, which has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [3] - DHI's forward P/E ratio is 14.37, significantly lower than NVR's forward P/E of 19.22, suggesting DHI may be undervalued [5] - The PEG ratio for DHI is 3.59, while NVR's PEG ratio is much higher at 11.17, indicating DHI's earnings growth is more favorably priced [5] - DHI's P/B ratio stands at 2.05, compared to NVR's P/B of 6.11, further supporting DHI's valuation advantage [6] - DHI has a Value grade of B, while NVR has a Value grade of C, reinforcing the perception that DHI is the more attractive investment option [6]

Key Takeaways D.R. Horton's home closings fell 6.9% with net sales orders down 6.2% in the first nine months of fiscal 2025.Incentives like a 3.99% FHA loan aim to lift demand, with Q4 closings expected at 23,500-24,000 units.DHI projects Q4 gross margin of 21%-21.5%, down from 23.6% a year ago, reflecting housing market weakness.The United States’ homebuilding market has been experiencing choppy weather for the past few years, which is directly hampering the profitability scale for operating homebuilders, ...

Market Sentiment & Expectations - The market anticipated an improved housing environment due to expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2] - However, Lennar tempered these expectations by reporting continued softening of market conditions and affordability [2] Financial Performance - Lennar posted weaker than expected revenue with lower than expected deliveries [3] - Housing gross margin was 175%, 30 basis points lower than anticipated and 500 basis points lower than the year before [3] - Lennar's earnings for the current quarter are likely to come in below expectations [3] Pricing & Incentives - Lennar used additional incentives to attract buyers, which negatively impacted the gross margin [4] - Lennar aims to be less promotional going forward [4]

Core Insights - KB Home (NYSE:KBH) is a significant player in the homebuilding industry, focusing on homes for first-time and move-up buyers, primarily operating in the United States [1] - The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.61, exceeding the estimated $1.50, representing a 7.33% earnings surprise, although it is a decrease from $2.04 EPS in the same quarter last year [2][6] - KBH achieved revenue of approximately $1.62 billion, surpassing the estimated $1.59 billion by 1.50%, but this reflects a decline from $1.75 billion reported a year ago [3][6] Financial Metrics - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 7.81, indicating the market's valuation of its earnings [4][6] - KBH's price-to-sales ratio stands at about 0.64, suggesting a relatively low valuation compared to its sales [4] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is 0.87, slightly higher than its sales, reflecting the company's overall valuation, including debt [4] Financial Stability - KBH's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.47, indicating a moderate level of debt compared to equity [5] - The company has a strong current ratio of 18.35, highlighting its ability to cover short-term liabilities with current assets [5] - KBH's earnings yield is 12.81%, showcasing its financial strength and return on investment for shareholders [5]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is experiencing challenges due to affordability pressures stemming from elevated mortgage rates and construction costs, which have negatively impacted buyer sentiment and slowed activity across various regions [1][2] - In Q3 of fiscal 2025, TOL reported a 4% year-over-year decline in net signed contracts and a 19% decrease in backlog, indicating a softer outlook ahead [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis points rate cut may alleviate some affordability constraints, potentially encouraging more buyers to enter the market [3] Company Performance - TOL's adjusted home sales gross margin decreased to 27.5%, down 130 basis points from the previous year, due to higher incentives and a slower sales pace [2] - Approximately 35% of TOL's communities can now deliver homes in eight months or less, improving flexibility to meet demand and potentially converting interest into closings more efficiently [4][10] - TOL's shares have increased by 24.2% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry and the broader S&P 500 [8] Industry Context - Other homebuilders, such as Lennar Corporation (LEN) and D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), are also facing similar sales volume challenges due to high mortgage rates and affordability pressures [5] - Lennar has utilized price incentives and mortgage buydowns to maintain sales volumes, although this has negatively impacted margins [6] - D.R. Horton reported that 81% of buyers in Q3 relied on incentive programs, which has pressured profitability but the company continues to benefit from its lot acquisition strategy [7] Valuation and Estimates - TOL's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 10.24, lower than the industry average of 12.33 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TOL's 2025 earnings per share has decreased to $13.82, reflecting a 7.9% decline from the previous year's profit level [13]

Group 1 - Lennar reported quarterly earnings of $2 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.12 per share, and down from $3.9 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -5.66% [1] - The company posted revenues of $8.81 billion for the quarter ended August 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.49%, and down from $9.42 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Lennar has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Group 2 - The stock has lost about 2.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 12.2% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $2.80 on revenues of $10.25 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $9.04 on revenues of $35.2 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Building Products - Home Builders is currently in the bottom 7% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential underperformance compared to higher-ranked industries [8] Group 3 - The estimate revisions trend for Lennar was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] - KB Home, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.50 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -26.5% [9]

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. operates in a challenging housing market characterized by affordability constraints, changing buyer preferences, and fluctuating mortgage rates, focusing on price discipline and operational efficiency to maintain profitability [1] - The company faces softened demand, raising concerns about achieving its fiscal 2025 earnings target of $13.75 per share, a decrease from $13.82 reported in fiscal 2024 [1][10] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 of fiscal 2025, home deliveries increased by 5% year-over-year, and revenues grew by 6%, driven by higher average selling prices, with delivered homes averaging $974,000 [2] - However, net signed contracts decreased by 4% year-over-year in units, and backlog units fell by 19%, with potential revenues declining by 10% [2] - Despite lower volumes, the average backlog price rose to $1.161 million from $1.044 million a year earlier, indicating resilience among affluent buyers [2] Group 2: Profitability Metrics - Gross margin contracted by 130 basis points year-over-year to 27.5%, attributed to higher incentives and product mix, while SG&A expenses improved by 20 basis points to 8.8% of revenues due to tighter cost control [3] - The company benefits from a high-value backlog and efficiency gains, providing flexibility to defend profitability despite declining volumes [4] Group 3: Industry Context - The broader homebuilding industry is experiencing slower sales volumes, with competitors like Lennar Corporation and D.R. Horton, Inc. also facing growth challenges due to ongoing affordability issues [5] - Lennar's gross margins fell to 18% from 22.5% year-over-year, while D.R. Horton reported that 81% of buyers utilized incentive programs, impacting profitability [6][7] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - Toll Brothers' shares have increased by 32.2% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry and the S&P 500 [8] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 10.24, lower than the industry average of 12.91 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Toll Brothers' 2025 earnings per share has decreased to $13.82 from $13.95 over the past 30 days, indicating a 7.9% decline from the previous year's profit level [15]

Key Takeaways D.R. Horton posted Q3 EPS of $3.36, beating estimates despite a 7% revenue decline to $9.2 billion. The builder expanded community count 12% year over year, reaching 126 markets in 36 states. Horton faces rising incentives and competition from Lennar and PulteGroup, challenging its dominance. D.R. Horton, Inc. ((DHI), the nation’s largest homebuilder, posted a solid fiscal third-quarter 2025 performance with EPS of $3.36, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.90 despite revenues dipping 7 ...