1月7日，北京时间周三晚间，薪资处理公司ADP报告称，美国私营部门就业在去年12月新增岗位4.1万人，低于经济学家们4.8-5万人的共识预期区间，显示 美国就业市场在进入2026年前处于动能趋软的状态。 最新报告中，去年11月的ADP就业人数从-3.2万人上修至-2.9万人。在12月数据公布前的4个月里，"小非农"就业人数有3个月处于净减少的状态。 12月的ADP就业增量几乎完全来自服务业和规模低于500人的小型企业。 ADP的结论基于超过2600万名美国私营企业员工的工资单。虽然最新数据本身仍不及预期，但稍稍扭转了此前就业人数净下降的颓势。 其中，教育和医疗相关行业新增3.9万个岗位，休闲与酒店业增加2.4万个；贸易、运输和公共事业增加1.1万个，金融服务业则增加6000个。前述增长被部分 行业的下滑所抵消，专业和商业服务业减少2.9万个岗位，信息服务业减少1.2万个，制造业就业人数也下降5000个。 ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查森总结称："小型企业在经历了11月的就业下滑后，随着年末招聘回暖实现了恢复；而大型雇主则在收缩用工。" ADP报告同步显示，12月跳槽者的年薪增速提高至6.6%，前值为2021年以 ...

Anand Chokkavelu has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Matt Frankel, CFP has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Tyler Crowe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. ...

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) after the opening bell in New York on December 3, 2025.After shaking off some of the weakness at the start of the month, markets seemed to be ready to board Santa's sleigh, and rode into a second straight day of gains this week. Wednesday's rally was on the back of surprisingly weak private jobs data, with payrolls processing firm ADP's November report showing 32,000 job losses, sharply missing the 40,000 gain expected by economists polled by D ...

Core Insights - US private employers experienced a loss of 32,000 jobs in November, indicating a stagnation in job creation, particularly affecting small businesses [1][2] - The hiring environment has been inconsistent, influenced by cautious consumer behavior and an uncertain macroeconomic landscape, with small businesses leading the decline in job creation [2][3] - Pay growth is also decelerating, with year-over-year pay for job-stayers rising by 4.4% in November, down from 4.5% in October, and job-changers seeing a decrease from 6.7% to 6.3% [4] Employment Trends - Job creation has been flat in the latter half of the year, with small businesses particularly struggling in November [1][2] - Manufacturing, construction, and professional services saw job losses, while education and health services added jobs, with gains primarily in mid-sized and large businesses [3] Economic Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates subdued labor demand, hiring freezes, and potential job displacement due to AI [5] - A significant portion of American workers, 69%, anticipate an increase in unemployment over the next year, reflecting a negative sentiment towards the job market [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector has experienced a significant increase in job losses, averaging over 13,500 jobs lost per week in October and early November, indicating a weakening labor market [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Job Losses - Private sector employers reported an average loss of 13,500 jobs per week for the four weeks ending November 8, which is a notable increase from the previous average loss of 2,500 jobs per week [2][3] - This represents a nearly 20% increase in job losses compared to the prior four-week period, where the average loss was 11,250 jobs per week [3] Labor Market Conditions - Early October showed more stable conditions, with a reported increase of 42,000 private sector payrolls and a year-over-year wage increase of 4.5%, but subsequent data indicated a decline towards the end of the month [4] - ADP's chief economist described the current labor market as a "C plus, B minus" situation, reflecting mixed conditions [5]

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector has experienced a significant job loss, averaging over 11,000 jobs per week through late October, indicating a historic decline in the job market [1][2] - Earlier data suggested a temporary increase in private-sector payrolls in October, but recent reports indicate a sharp decline towards the end of the month [3] Job Market Trends - Private-sector employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25, highlighting struggles in job creation during the latter half of the month [2] - This decline marks the first recorded job loss by ADP since August, when nearly 20,000 jobs were lost in the four weeks ending August 30 [2] Economic Projections - Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict a decline of 50,000 nonfarm payrolls in October, which would represent the largest single-month drop since late 2020 [4] - Dow Jones economists expect an even steeper decline of 60,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [4] - Indeed reported that job openings have fallen to their lowest level since February 2021, indicating a tightening job market [4]

Labor Market Overview - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in a lack of official labor market data, leading to reliance on alternative metrics to assess current conditions [1][2] - Various indicators suggest a weak but not collapsing labor market, with expectations of a decline of 60,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% if the Bureau of Labor Statistics had released its report [2] Employment Trends - The labor market is characterized by low hiring and low firing, indicating high uncertainty among businesses [3] - The unemployment rate remains low at around 4.4%, with little change observed in layoffs and hiring rates [3] Small Business Employment - Larger firms continue to add workers, while smaller businesses are reducing their workforce, reflecting a trend of conservatism among small business owners [5][6] - ADP reported a loss of 34,000 jobs in October for businesses employing fewer than 250 people, indicating a steady erosion in employment for smaller firms [6] Job Creation and Layoffs - ADP reported that companies added only 42,000 jobs in October, which, while better than expected, still reflects weak hiring [7] - Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 153,074 announced job cuts in October, the highest for that month in 22 years [7] - The Institute for Supply Management's employment indexes for services and manufacturing sectors indicate more companies are planning to hold or cut staffing levels, with readings below 50% signaling contraction [7] Wage Growth Disparities - Bank of America reported a year-over-year payroll growth of 0.5% in October, with significant disparities in wage growth: higher earners at 3.7%, middle earners at 2%, and lower income at only 1% [7] Job Openings and Small Business Indicators - Job search site Indeed reported a decline in job openings, reaching the lowest level since February 2021 [7] - Homebase indicated a further decline in small business employment, with a 2.9% drop in the "employees working" indicator from January levels [7]

Group 1 - The current government shutdown has lasted for 37 days, which is different from previous shutdowns that typically had minimal impact on the stock market [1] - The Dow has dropped 399 points, the S&P 500 has lost 1.12%, and NASDAQ has decreased by 1.90%, with these losses attributed to the ongoing shutdown and lack of economic data [2] - Job cuts have surpassed 1 million, marking the highest total for October since 2003, with companies citing cost-cutting and AI as reasons for these layoffs [3] Group 2 - The employment data from payroll processors ADP and Paychex, along with employment management software companies, indicate a negative trend in hiring, reflecting a challenging economic environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market may be utilizing certain stocks to convey a cautionary message regarding broader economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The current market behavior suggests a potential warning signal from specific stocks [1] - Investors are advised to pay attention to the underlying trends indicated by these stock movements [1]

Payroll processing firm ADP ended its data-sharing with the central bank after a speech highlighted the already-public collaboration. ...