U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that Mexico would stop sending oil to Cuba as he ramped up a pressure campaign on the Caribbean nation. ...

Donald Trump claimed India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil as he announced plans to cut US tariffs on Indian exports.The US president announced that he and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, whom he proclaimed to be “one of my greatest friends”, had agreed to strike a trade deal.While full details have yet to be disclosed, Trump claimed that India – the second largest purchaser of Russian crude – had agreed to stop buying Russian oil, after many months of pressure from the US.After a call with Modi ...

WASHINGTON — President Trump announced a new US-India trade deal Monday after a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi — saying the agreement could help choke off Russia’s war machine in Ukraine.“He agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela,” Trump said of Modi on Truth Social, announcing US tariffs on New Delhi would be slashed to 18%.“This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying ...

It’s too soon for oil traders to relax entirely, writes @oil_gs01 https://t.co/sqKleOXtyH ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have significantly dropped as geopolitical risk premiums have diminished following US President Trump's comments about ongoing talks with Iran, alongside a broader selloff in commodities [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices fell more than 5%, trading near $66 per barrel, while US crude futures also experienced a sharp decline [1]. - The decline in oil prices is characterized as a positioning reset rather than a fundamental shift, with no new supply shocks prompting the market to recalibrate after previously pricing in potential disruptions [2]. - The recent drop follows oil's largest monthly increase since early 2022, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions [4]. Group 2: Broader Commodities Impact - The commodities market, particularly metals, faced intense selling pressure, with gold prices dropping as much as 10% and copper falling over 5% [3]. - Elevated supplies in the first half of 2026 are contributing to the overall market backdrop, despite the recent tightness in supply earlier in the year [4]. Group 3: Trading Behavior and Market Sentiment - The sharp reversal in oil prices is expected to trigger selling from trend-following commodity trading advisors, especially if Brent prices fall below $65 per barrel [5]. - Rapid shifts in financial flows have intensified oil price movements, with traders reversing previously established short positions after a period of geopolitical uncertainty [6].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals and oil prices are experiencing significant losses, primarily triggered by U.S. President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell [1][11]. Precious Metals Market - Spot gold prices fell 3.2% to $4,713.39 per ounce, following a historic drop of over 9% on Friday, marking the sharpest one-day decline since 1983 [2]. - Spot silver prices decreased by 2.7% to $82.29 per ounce, having dropped over 31% on Friday, which is its worst daily performance since 1980 [2]. - Analysts suggest that the recent downturn in precious metals is part of a broader market decline, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index reflecting losses from Asia-Pacific markets [3]. Investment Strategies - JPMorgan's global investment strategist, Grace Peters, emphasizes the importance of geopolitical hedges and safe-haven assets, asserting that gold remains the best geopolitical hedge [4]. - Peters maintains a forecast of $6,500 per ounce for gold by year-end, driven by factors such as central bank buying and institutional investor support [5]. - The current allocation of gold in institutional and retail portfolios is around 3%, indicating potential for increased investment in gold [8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sell-off in precious metals began due to fears regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and expectations of a declining U.S. dollar [10]. - The nomination of Warsh has led to a reevaluation among investors, as he has advocated for reducing the Fed's balance sheet, creating uncertainty in the market [11][12]. - Some analysts view the recent sell-off as a "healthy correction," suggesting that prices may stabilize and recover in the coming months, with expectations of gold reaching $5,020 per ounce and silver at $88 per ounce by year-end [15][16]. Oil Market - Oil prices also declined, with Brent crude futures falling 5% to $65.88 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures down 5.3% to $61.76, marking the steepest single-session decline in over six months [18]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to signals of de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, as President Trump indicated that the two nations are "seriously talking" [17].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a decline of 3% on Monday, influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump's remarks indicating that Iran is "seriously talking" with Washington, which suggests a potential de-escalation of tensions with an OPEC member [1] Group 1 - The drop in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical developments, specifically the dialogue between the U.S. and Iran [1] - The market reacted to the news of potential diplomatic engagement, reflecting investor sentiment regarding oil supply stability [1] - The situation highlights the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and oil market dynamics, particularly involving OPEC nations [1]

MATT: WE HAVE A NEW FED CHAIR. 30 MINUTES UNTIL THE START OF THE TRADE. I MATT MILLER.DANI BURGER IS OFF RIGHT NOW. "BLOOMBERG OPEN INTEREST" STARTS RIGHT. ♪ COMING UP, HE IS THE CHOSEN ONE.PRESIDENT TRUMP TAPS KEVIN WARSH TO LEAD THE FED, CHOICE VIEWED AS MORE HAWKISH THAN OTHER CONTENDERS. A BUSY WEEK FOR EARNINGS SEASON WRAPS UP WITH A BULLISH FORECAST FROM APPLE AND STRONG RESULTS FROM BIG OIL. METALS MANIA.GOLD AND SILVER SUFFERED THEIR BIGGEST SLIDE IN YEARS AS WILD SWINGS ROCK THE COMMODITIES MARKET. ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential escalation of US-Iran tensions could significantly impact energy markets, particularly oil prices, which may rise to triple digits if disruptions occur in the region [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant portion of oil production, approximately 30 million barrels a day, is located near Iran, with 20 million barrels a day passing through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that any disruption could lead to substantial price increases [2]. - Current oil prices are influenced by both fundamentals and geopolitical factors, with a suggested breakdown of one-third fundamentals and two-thirds geopolitical tensions [7][8]. - The recent rally in crude prices, approximately 20%, could reverse quickly if geopolitical tensions do not escalate [8]. Group 2: Price Projections - Without conflict in Iran, oil is projected to be valued around $55 per barrel, while potential conflict could push prices to $100 per barrel, indicating a 25% probability of significant market disruption [5]. - The current price action shows WTI dipping below $65, yet it is on track for its best month in nearly two years, driven by both geopolitical factors and a weaker US dollar [7][9]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The oversupply of oil remains a critical issue, with the market being fundamentally oversupplied even amidst geopolitical tensions [10]. - Recent production issues in Kazakhstan have contributed to the current market dynamics, further complicating the supply situation [7][10].

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said Friday that Venezuela needs to transition to democracy in order for investment in the South American nation's dilapidated oil industry to make sense. President Donald Trump is pressuring oil companies to invest at least $100 billion in Venezuela to rebuild the country's oil industry after the U.S. captured former President Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3. But Woods told Trump at the White House on Jan. 9 that Venezuela is "uninvestable" in its current state. The Exxon CEO's blunt a ...