Market Performance - U.S. stocks opened with gains on the final trading day of November, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 138 points, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.3% [1] - Most tech stocks posted gains, including Meta Platforms rising 1.4% and Micron Technology adding 2.8%, while Nvidia fell 1% and Oracle dropped 2.3% [2] Cryptocurrency - Coinbase Global added 3.6% as bitcoin rose above $92,000 after previously dropping to around $81,000 last week, although it remains below its all-time high of approximately $125,000 set in early October [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - There is growing confidence among traders that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting ending on December 10, with a nearly 87% probability of a cut according to CME Group data [5] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have bolstered this confidence, despite the central bank facing challenges with rising inflation and a slowing job market [6] Economic Data - The latest corporate earnings reports were mostly positive, but economic data has been mixed, indicating a complex economic environment [6] - In Asia, Japan's housing starts rose 3.2% in October year-over-year, defying expectations of a decline, while South Korea's industrial production fell 4% month-on-month in October [8]

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced modest gains on Friday, with the Dow industrials, Nasdaq composite, and S&P 500 rising by 0.4% or less in morning trading [1] - Technology companies, particularly Alphabet and chip makers like Micron Technology and Intel, saw larger gains [1] Nasdaq Performance - Despite the gains, the Nasdaq composite is on track to record its first monthly loss since March, down approximately 2.1% for the month due to concerns about an AI bubble [2] CME Group Outage - CME Group's derivatives markets reopened at 8:30 a.m. ET after a disruption caused by cooling problems at a key data center, which had prevented trading in futures and options [3] Global Market Trends - Global markets showed little change, with the Stoxx Europe 600 inching higher, Japan's Nikkei 225 increasing by 0.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declining by 0.3% [4] Federal Reserve Expectations - Markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut benchmark interest rates again in December, following indications of a cooling labor market [4] Currency and Bitcoin Trends - The dollar remained steady against a basket of currencies after a previous decline, while Bitcoin rose above $92,000, recovering from a drop below $81,000 [5]

Market Performance - US stocks experienced small gains on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading the market higher by approximately 0.6% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 rose by roughly 4% [1] - Despite the gains, Wall Street indexes faced a losing month, with the S&P 500 slightly lower and on track to end a six-month winning streak, while the Nasdaq was down 2% and set to snap a seven-month run of gains [4] Trading Operations - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange restored trading operations after a significant outage that disrupted live trading in futures and options across various markets, including US Treasurys and crude oil [2] - The outage lasted until 8:30 a.m. ET, when the CME announced the issue was resolved [2] Investor Sentiment - Stocks rebounded sharply as traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting in December [3] - Renewed confidence in AI-related stocks provided support for technology companies leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday trading shutdown [3] Future Predictions - Analysts are releasing stock-market predictions for the upcoming year, with Deutsche Bank setting a target for the S&P 500 at 8,000 by the end of 2026, while HSBC and JPMorgan expect it to hover around 7,500 [5] - Markets were scheduled to close early on Friday, with no major earnings or economic data releases anticipated [5]

CME Group sign at NYMEX in New York.Adam Jeffery | CNBCThis is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:1. Down and outStock futures trading was halted this morning after a data center "cooling issue" took down several Chicago Mercantile Exchange services. Individual stocks were still trading before the bell, while the CME said futures indexes and options trading would open fully at 8:30 ...

Core Viewpoint - SSR Mining (SSRM) has shown significant stock performance, increasing approximately 80% since June and over 400% since a major incident in 2024, indicating strong investor confidence and potential growth in the mining sector [1] Group 1: Company Overview - SSR Mining has been a focus of analysis, with a strong emphasis on its performance in the metals and mining sector [1] - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching various companies across multiple industries, including commodities and technology, which enhances the credibility of the insights provided [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, indicating a shift in strategy to reach a broader audience [1] - A preference for covering metals and mining stocks is noted, alongside comfort in analyzing other sectors such as consumer discretionary, REITs, and utilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the oversupply in the credit market due to massive debt issuance from tech giants are considered premature by industry experts [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Issuance and Market Reaction - Tech firms have recently entered the bond market to address significant AI-related investment needs, raising concerns about potential selloffs due to rapid debt growth [2]. - Iain Stealey from JP Morgan Asset Management noted that while there has been substantial issuance leading to a temporary widening of investment-grade spreads by about 10 basis points, the broader fears are exaggerated [2][3]. Group 2: Company Financial Health - Despite the high levels of issuance, major tech companies are generating substantial earnings annually, which mitigates concerns about their debt levels [3]. - The limited existing debt of these tech giants makes them attractive credit options, with companies like Alphabet having a better credit rating than France [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Future debt supply from these companies is expected to be more evenly spaced, with Meta indicating it will likely refrain from issuing more debt until the second half of next year [3]. - The overall sentiment at the conference was positive, with expectations that healthy balance sheets and attractive yields will support the credit market through 2026 [5].

Core Insights - Major tech companies, including Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft, have committed nearly $3 trillion to AI infrastructure over the past two years, with Microsoft planning $80 billion in capex for fiscal 2025, Alphabet raising its 2025 guidance to $75 billion, and Amazon's AWS projected to exceed $100 billion annually by 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Investment Commitments - Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft are investing heavily in AI infrastructure to secure market dominance [1] - Microsoft plans to allocate $80 billion for capital expenditures in fiscal 2025, primarily for data centers [1] - Alphabet has increased its 2025 investment guidance to $75 billion, while Amazon's AWS is on track for over $100 billion in annual revenue by 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analyst Projections - Wall Street responds positively to upward revisions in earnings, driving stock prices to all-time highs [2] - Analysts are projecting 20% to 30% growth in cloud and AI revenue over the next five years [2] Group 3: Accounting Practices and Concerns - Michael Burry criticizes the AI hype, suggesting that companies are under-depreciating their assets, particularly GPUs and servers [3][4] - Burry highlights that the industry could be understating depreciation by $176 billion from 2026 to 2028, potentially inflating earnings by about 20% [6] - The practice of extending the useful life of assets reduces annual depreciation expenses, artificially boosting near-term earnings [6][5] Group 4: Timing of Asset Utilization - The timing of these accounting practices is strategic, as many chips will not reach the latter part of their assumed useful lives until 2026 to 2027, coinciding with the peak of the current hype cycle [7]

Market Overview - The crypto market experienced a significant boost with Bitcoin (BTC) rising to $91,700 and Ether (ETH) reaching $3,030, following a strong recovery in equities led by tech stocks [1] - Bitcoin's 5.4% gain over the past 24 hours outperformed 18 of the 20 largest crypto tokens by market cap, indicating a shift in trader focus towards Bitcoin rather than lower liquidity altcoins [2] Derivatives and Trading Activity - Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) decreased to 50%, recovering from a spike to 65% the previous week, suggesting a stabilization in market expectations [5] - Traders engaged in a bullish year-end call-condor structure for Bitcoin, with a premium of $6.5 million, indicating expectations for a potential "Santa rally" [5] - Open interest for Bitcoin remained consistent with price gains, indicating that the recent price movement was driven by spot buying rather than futures activity [5] Altcoin Market Dynamics - The altcoin market showed signs of strength, with notable gains in tokens like SKY (10%), DASH, ETHFI, and AVAX (6.7% to 7.7%) [5] - However, not all altcoins performed well, as Ethena (ENA) and Bittensor (TAO) both dropped by more than 2%, indicating mixed sentiment across the market [5] - The average relative strength index (RSI) for the crypto market is approaching "overbought" territory, suggesting a potential pullback unless demand and volume can be sustained [5] Future Outlook - The performance of the altcoin market is closely tied to Bitcoin's next moves; a break above the downtrend towards $100,000 could lead to altcoins following suit, while a decline back to the low $80,000 level may result in underperformance among altcoins [5]

Core Viewpoint - Developed international equities are no longer considered a "value trap" and present a fundamentally sound alternative to the concentrated U.S. market, particularly benefiting from the performance of the Magnificent 7 tech giants [1][2]. Group 1: International Market Dynamics - International markets, including Europe, Australasia, and the Far East, have found the necessary catalysts that were previously missing, attracting savvy investors [2]. - Historically low valuations in Europe and Japan were misleading, as they lacked fundamental drivers for price appreciation; this has changed as foreign companies have improved their capital allocation strategies [2][4]. Group 2: Payout Ratios and Valuations - The payout ratio for the EAFE index is now 75%, comparable to the U.S., with international payout growth over the last five years outperforming that of the U.S. [3]. - International stocks are trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 15, significantly lower than the U.S. PE ratio of 23, offering better valuation opportunities [4]. Group 3: Market Concentration Risks - The Magnificent 7 stocks constitute about 36% of the S&P 500, creating significant downside risks if the AI narrative loses momentum or if valuations become unrealistic [5]. - The current concentration in the U.S. market is at historic levels, prompting calls for diversification [4][5]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Instead of focusing on U.S. small caps for diversification, a "barbell" portfolio approach is recommended, balancing high-growth U.S. tech exposure with cheaper, shareholder-friendly international stocks to enhance returns and mitigate volatility [6].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the financial performance and capital expenditure strategies of major tech companies, indicating that AI is now a critical component of their business models [3][5][14]. Group 1: Big Tech Performance - In Q3 2025, major tech companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Apple reported strong revenue growth driven by AI and cloud services, with double-digit revenue gains [3][5]. - Microsoft experienced an 18% year-on-year revenue increase to $77.7 billion, largely due to demand for AI-enhanced Azure services, with capital expenditure reaching nearly $35 billion [9]. - Alphabet's revenue rose 16% to $102.3 billion, benefiting from enterprise AI demand, and it increased its 2025 capex guidance to $91–93 billion [9]. - Amazon's capital expenditure for the first three quarters of 2025 was $89.9 billion, with AWS revenue growing 20% in Q3, marking its fastest growth in years [9]. - Meta reported a 26% year-on-year revenue growth, with Q3 capex reaching $19.4 billion, as it plans to invest heavily in AI infrastructure [9]. - Apple achieved a record $94 billion in revenue for its June quarter, emphasizing significant growth in AI investments across its devices and services [9]. Group 2: Alibaba and Tencent's Strategies - Alibaba reported a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 247,795 million (US$34,769 million) but faced a 53% decline in net income to RMB 20,612 million (US$2,893 million) due to heavy investments [7]. - Tencent's revenue rose 15% year-on-year to RMB 192.9 billion (about $27 billion), with net profit increasing by 19%, showcasing resilience amid economic challenges [8]. - Tencent's capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was approximately RMB 13 billion (~$1.8 billion), down 24% from the previous year, indicating a more conservative spending approach compared to U.S. counterparts [13]. - Tencent's advertising revenue surged 21% year-on-year, attributed to AI-driven improvements in ad targeting and creativity [10]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure Investment - Big Tech companies are treating AI and cloud infrastructure as foundational investments, with capital expenditure profiles resembling national-scale infrastructure projects [6]. - The article notes a divergence in strategies, with U.S. firms focusing on building extensive AI infrastructure while Tencent emphasizes integrating AI into its existing ecosystem [14][19]. - The heavy spending on AI infrastructure by U.S. companies is solidifying their market dominance, creating a competitive landscape where smaller players may struggle to keep pace [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the AI investment cycle is global and shows no signs of slowing, with companies needing to demonstrate that their AI investments can drive sustainable growth [17][18]. - The contrasting strategies of U.S. tech giants and Chinese companies like Alibaba and Tencent may shape the future of AI monetization and efficiency [19].