智通财经APP获悉，当地时间10月10日，据报道，日本公明党党首齐藤铁夫向自民党新任总裁高市早苗 传达了"脱离执政联盟框架"的方针意向。有公明党高层也证实，该党将脱离与自民党的执政联盟。执政 近四分之一个世纪的联盟濒临瓦解对于尚未正式就任首相的高市早苗而言是一个重大打击，同时也令人 们对日本政府未来政策方向的担忧加剧。 据悉，高市早苗与齐藤铁夫的会谈未能就政党资金规则的分歧达成一致。齐藤铁夫随后明确表态，若没 有达成联合执政协议，公明党将不会在未来几天的首相选举中投票支持高市早苗。 市场研究公司Pelham Smithers Associates的董事总经理Pelham Smithers表示："我认为市场今日的下跌反 映了对这一事件的担忧，后续可能还会有进一步抛售。除非自民党能在未来几天内与其他政党达成新的 联盟，否则预计下周二市场将进一步下跌。" 资管公司Gama Asset Management的全球宏观投资组合经理Rajeev De Mello认为："这一新的政治不确定 性将对日本股市造成压力。自民党可能不得不作出一些政策让步，这可能会削弱准首相高市早苗的经济 政策影响力。""我仍然看好日本股市的长期表 ...

法国总理辞职的消息传出后，投资者对法国财政风险的担忧急剧上升，法债率先承压。6日早间，法国 10年期国债收益率盘中飙升逾0.1个百分点，突破3.6%的关口，逼近2011年欧债危机期间的高位。法国 与德国10年期国债收益率利差一度扩大超10个基点，达到约89个基点，创下今年1月以来的新高。更引 人关注的是，法国10年期国债收益率罕见地超越意大利，成为欧元区收益率最高的国债。分析人士表 示，这种上涨将逐渐传导至债务总成本。也就是说，法国在市场上借款的成本更高了。一直以来，意大 利因财政状况脆弱而融资成本高企，而法国作为高评级国家借贷成本通常更低。外媒评论称，这一变化 是市场对这两个国家看法转变的表现。分析人士认为，债务负担是法国政府支出的第二大项目，而且它 还在不断增加，如果不采取任何措施，明年它将成为政府支出的最大项目。 法国股市同样遭受重击。6日开盘，巴黎CAC 40指数下跌约2%，跌破关键的8000点整数关口，盘中一 度下探至7900点附近。尾盘跌幅有所收窄，但CAC 40指数当天仍在主要欧洲股指中表现垫底。银行板 块领跌，法国兴业银行收跌逾4%，法国巴黎银行跌超3%，法国农业信贷银行跌约3.4%。值得庆幸 ...

这种转变不会立即发生，但会随时间推移而出现。10月15日是军队发薪日，如果届时关门仍在继续，现 役军人将错过整个薪水。高盛认为，不会有太多人愿意看到这种情况发生，而且此前从未允许这种情况 出现。 美国政府的持续停摆正引发市场对政治不确定性的担忧。 近日，高盛首席美国政治策略师Alec Phillips发布研报分析认为，当前僵局最终将通过特朗普的某种表 态或让步而结束，他需要公开表示愿意讨论相关健康议题。民主党随后可能同意至少短期重新开放政 府，然后双方继续就其他议题进行谈判。 Phillips认为，美国政府关门状态可能持续数周，但不太可能延续到10月15日军队发薪日之后。如果届 时关门仍在继续，现役军人将错过整个薪水，而这种情况此前从未被允许发生。 预测平台Polymarket的数据显示，政府关门至少再持续10天的概率已升至75%。 与此同时，股市的持续上涨已经削弱了传统的市场压力机制。传统上会因政府关门而暴跌的股市却持续 上涨至历史新高，这削弱了市场对华盛顿施压的作用。 高盛外汇策略主管Mike Cahill表示，广泛的政府关门通常不会持续太久，因为被认为过于具有破坏性。 Cahill认为，最明显的近期市场 ...

Core Points - The Paris stock market experienced a significant decline due to political turmoil in France, with the CAC40 index dropping as much as 2.1% before closing down 1.36%, falling below the 8000-point mark [1] - The resignation of Prime Minister Le Cornu, which occurred shortly after the announcement of a new government, triggered widespread criticism and heightened political tensions, marking the shortest tenure for a Prime Minister in the history of the Fifth Republic [1] - The financial sector was particularly hard hit, with major banks like Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, and BNP Paribas seeing declines of 4.23%, 3.43%, and 3.21% respectively [1] Market Analysis - Analysts noted that French bank stocks are highly sensitive to changes in domestic debt financing costs, with a notable increase in sovereign bond yields putting pressure on these stocks [1] - Following Le Cornu's resignation, the yield on France's 10-year government bonds rose from 3.51% to 3.61%, before settling at 3.57% [1] - The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields widened to 0.85 percentage points, significantly higher than the approximately 0.5 percentage points observed before President Macron's planned dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024 [1][2]

The move higher came as the U.S. government shutdown dragged on, and France's Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned after less than a month. President Emmanuel Macron has failed to put together a government that can address the country's ballooning deficit, giving investors yet another source of political uncertainty. Futures rose 1.5% to $3,966 an ounce in early trading, topping $3,900 an ounce for the first time ever. Gold surged to yet another all-time high on Monday as political uncertainty in both ...

Group 1 - The political crisis in France has intensified with the resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu just one day after President Emmanuel Macron appointed a new cabinet, leading to strong reactions from various parties [1][3] - Investors are reacting to the political uncertainty by selling French government bonds, causing the 10-year bond yield to rise by 9 basis points to 3.6%, and widening the spread between French and German bonds to over 89 basis points, the highest since the end of 2024 [1] - The CAC40 index in France fell by 2% during the day, while the Italian FTSE MIB index decreased by 0.25% and the European Stoxx 600 index dropped by 0.28% [3] Group 2 - The leader of the French Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, stated that Macron's ruling coalition has "collapsed" and the new government has "lost legitimacy," indicating an unprecedented political crisis [3] - Lecornu faces challenges similar to his predecessors, needing to push through a budget plan that includes spending cuts and tax increases to control the largest deficit in the Eurozone [3] - Analysts predict that the current situation is leaning towards triggering new elections, with expectations that the bond spread may rise and test 100 basis points [3]

从业资格号：F0262502 投资咨询号：Z0002252 上周五晚间，贵金属市场震荡反弹，白银表现尤为强劲，领涨金银板块。纽约金主力合约上涨1.12%， 收报3723.3美元/盎司；沪金主力合约同步跟涨1.02%，报838.26元/克。纽约银强势拉升3.0%，收于 43.365美元/盎司；沪银主力合约大幅跟涨2.68%，收报10204元/千克，重新站上万元整数关口。 上周五晚间，美元指数收涨。货币政策方面，美联储理事米兰表示未来几个月应继续降息，并呼吁更快 行动，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利称今年再降息两次是合适的，进一步强化宽松预期。政治不确定 性方面，美国众议院共和党拨款法案未获参议院通过，政府停摆风险再度升温，两党分歧加剧市场波 动；同时，美联储理事库克被要求于9月25日前回应特朗普，政治干预持续扰动货币政策独立性预期。 地缘方面，欧盟通过对俄第19轮制裁；中东局势方面特朗普拟与阿拉伯国家领导人商讨加沙停火，以色 列官员要求扩大西岸主权，多国承认巴勒斯坦国，地缘碎片化趋势延续，推升避险情绪。机构观点方 面，花旗将黄金3个月目标价上调至3800美元/盎司，反映出市场对金价中长期乐观预期。 整体来看，货币 ...

一场可能动摇土耳其政治格局的司法大戏，周一获得推迟，为市场带来暂时喘息机会。 9月15日，针对主要反对党共和人民党（CHP）在2023年党代会期间，部分党员收受现金贿赂的指控，土耳其法院决定将 该案推迟至10月24日再审。该案的结果将挑战2023年党代会的合法性，并直接关系到现任党主席Ozgur Ozel的去留。 分析师普遍认为，这仅仅是"将皮球踢到了路的另一边"，核心风险并未解除。此案被广泛视为总统埃尔多安及其执政党对 反对派持续施压的一部分，尤其是在反对党于地方选举中取得重大胜利之后。 随着政治紧张局势暂时降温，土耳其里拉资产应声上涨。伊斯坦布尔证交所全国100指数收盘大涨6.1%，创下自2023年5月 以来的最大单日涨幅，几乎收复本月以来的全部失地。 （伊斯坦布尔证交所全国100指数日内走势） 短暂的喘息与挥之不去的风险 法院的延期决定，为投资者提供了数周的"安慰期"。 正如三菱日联银行的资金主管Onur Ilgen所言： 这可能是暂时的，但至少会提供几周的安慰。 周一伊斯坦布尔证交所全国100指数收于11000.26点，逼近8月26日创下的历史收盘高位。作为国家风险指标的土耳其信用 违约互换（CDS） ...

Group 1 - European financial markets are expected to enter a cautious stabilization phase after significant declines, influenced by inflation expectations, central bank policies, fiscal pressures, and political uncertainties [1] - Eurozone member states plan to issue over €100 billion in new bonds in September, raising concerns about supply excess and higher required yields from investors [1][2] - Political risks in specific countries, such as France's government facing a confidence vote, have exacerbated fiscal concerns and widened the yield spread between French and German bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The European bond market experienced significant turbulence, with the 30-year German bond yield rising to 3.41%, the highest since 2011, and the 30-year French bond yield reaching 4.52%, the highest since 2009 [2] - Rising government bond yields are seen as a warning signal for financial markets, indicating concerns over current policy paths and leading to higher term premiums [2] - The DAX index fell by 2.29%, and major U.S. stock indices also faced pressure, reflecting the impact of rising bond yields on equity markets [2] Group 3 - U.S.-EU trade tensions have escalated, with the Trump administration imposing higher tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, potentially leading to a trade conflict [3] - The inflation data released for the Eurozone showed a 2.1% year-on-year increase in consumer prices for August, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 4 - European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Isabel Schnabel reinforced hawkish expectations, suggesting current rates should remain unchanged and warning of potential inflation risks from tariffs and fiscal expansion [4] - Market expectations indicate that the ECB is unlikely to take further action this year, contributing to rising long-term bond yields [4] Group 5 - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with internal divisions within the Fed regarding the timing of such cuts [5] - Upcoming economic data, particularly related to the U.S. labor market, is expected to significantly impact market conditions and Fed decision-making [5][6] Group 6 - The focus of the market has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the pace and frequency of rate cuts," with any comments from ECB President Lagarde potentially influencing the Eurozone bond market [6] - Investor sentiment remains fragile, with concerns that buying on dips may be replaced by selling on highs, leading to negative market effects [6]

Group 1 - European financial markets are expected to enter a cautious stabilization phase after significant declines, influenced by inflation expectations, central bank policies, fiscal pressures, and political uncertainties [1] - Eurozone member countries plan to issue over €100 billion in new debt in September, raising concerns about short-term "oversupply" in the market, leading investors to demand higher yields [1][2] - Political risks in specific countries, such as France facing a confidence vote due to budget cuts, have widened the yield spread between French and German bonds, reflecting market risk aversion towards economies with poor fiscal discipline [1][2] Group 2 - The European bond market experienced significant turbulence, with the 30-year German bond yield rising to 3.41%, the highest since 2011, and the 30-year French bond yield reaching 4.52%, the highest since 2009 [2] - Rising government bond yields are seen as a warning signal for financial markets, indicating concerns over current policy paths, which could lead to higher term premiums [2] - The DAX index fell by 2.29%, and major U.S. stock indices also faced pressure, with the Dow Jones down 0.55% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.79% [2] Group 3 - U.S.-EU trade tensions have escalated, with the Trump administration imposing higher tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, potentially leading to a trade conflict and affecting market confidence [3] - Eurozone inflation data for August showed a 2.1% year-on-year increase, slightly above previous values and market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 4 - European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Isabel Schnabel reinforced hawkish expectations, suggesting current rates should remain unchanged and warning that tariffs and fiscal expansion could increase future inflation risks [4] - Market expectations for the ECB to refrain from further rate cuts this year have led to rising long-term bond yields [4] Group 5 - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17, with internal divisions within the Fed regarding the timing of such cuts [5] - Upcoming economic data, particularly U.S. labor market reports, are expected to significantly impact market conditions and Fed decision-making [5][6] Group 6 - The focus of the market has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "the pace and frequency of rate cuts," with any comments from ECB President Lagarde potentially influencing the Eurozone bond market [6] - Investor sentiment remains fragile, with concerns that buying on dips could be replaced by selling on highs, leading to negative market effects [6]