截至发文时（2026年2月27日），英镑最新汇率情况如下： ● 英镑大跌，英国执政工党最新补选遭遇惨败，政治不确定性上升 ●李嘉诚集团1100亿港元出售英国电网，持有16年，投资收益率超500% ●英国最新官方移民统计：非法移民人数略减，工签发放量缩减三成 ●英国近一百万16-24岁年轻人既未就业也未在求学 ●牛津街禁车计划获批，今夏开始正式实施 英镑大跌，英国执政工党最新补选遭遇惨败，政治不确定性上升 2026 年2月27日英 国 日 更 重 点 有 ： 本周以来，由于英国国内政治风险持续上升，英镑汇率一直呈下降趋势。 | GBP v | £ 1.00 | | | --- | --- | --- | | CNY | ¥ 9.24 | . | | | 1 GBP = 9.2443 CNY | | | | $ 1.35 | | | USD | 1 GBP = 1.3479 USD | . | | EUR | € 1.14 | | | | 1 GBP = 1.1426 EUR | | | HKD | HK$ 10.55 | | | | 1 GBP = 10.5461 HKD | | | AUD | $ 1.90 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval, marking a significant legal defeat for President Trump and potentially impacting over $175 billion in tariffs [2][8][10]. Group 1: Supreme Court Ruling - The Supreme Court's decision was made with a 6-3 vote, stating that the IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs without Congress's explicit consent [8][9]. - The ruling upholds a previous lower court decision that found Trump's tariffs exceeded the authority granted by the IEEPA [10]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Economists estimate that the tariffs imposed under the IEEPA exceed $175 billion, and if refunded, could reduce the average effective tariff rate from 13.6% to 6.5%, a decrease of over 50% [11][12][14]. - The ruling may lead to the U.S. government needing to refund tariffs collected, which could exceed the total expenditures of the Departments of Transportation and Justice for the fiscal year 2025 [12][14]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the ruling, the U.S. dollar index fell, U.S. Treasury prices dropped, and major stock indices saw increased gains, indicating a relatively mild market reaction [5][18]. - Analysts suggest that the market's positive response may be short-lived, as the ruling was largely anticipated, and the focus may shift to alternative tariff measures that the Trump administration may pursue [19][20]. Group 4: Political Uncertainty - The ruling introduces new political uncertainties, as Trump has indicated he may utilize other legal frameworks to impose tariffs, such as the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the Trade Act of 1974 [16][17]. - Analysts believe that the situation is more politically charged than economically driven, with potential implications for Trump's political standing and future tariff policies [15][17].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around a video posted by former President Trump's social media account that allegedly contains racist content, leading to strong condemnation from both political parties and social organizations [1] - The White House removed the video the following day, but Trump refused to apologize, claiming he only watched the first half and did not see the offensive content [1] - This incident is likely to increase political uncertainty and negatively impact Trump's personal image and the public perception of his media company [1] Group 2 - The stock price of Trump Media Technology Group (DJT.OQ) experienced significant volatility in the week following the incident, with a closing price of $10.90 on February 5, rebounding to $11.46 on February 6, before declining to $11.06 by February 11, resulting in a cumulative increase of 1.47% over the period [2] - During this time, trading activity was high, with a price fluctuation of 5.60% [2] - The stock underperformed compared to major indices, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising by 1.23% and 0.46% respectively during the same period [2]

本周英镑兑美元出现反弹，兑欧元亦收复部分失地。此前的跌势由斯塔默团队一名高级成员辞职触发，政治不确定性再度浮出水面。鉴于英镑年 内涨幅主要来自美元走弱的被动支撑，多家机构认为，通过欧元兑英镑表达对英国风险敞口，是当前更具效率的交易方式。 花旗集团策略师警告，英镑面临的最大考验将在未来两个月到来。届时英国政局不确定性与英国央行降息预期将形成共振，对英镑构成显著下行 压力。 该行策略师Daniel Tobon表示，尽管市场过去一周已"初步感知"这两大风险，但真正的下行风险窗口将于5月初地方选举前夕开启。民调显示，首 相斯塔默所在党派或面临压力，其领导地位已受动摇，政治不确定性料进一步升温。 与此同时，英国央行预计将在未来数月重启降息。上周该行以出人意料的微弱优势决定维持利率不变，但市场普遍认为宽松周期尚未终结。 政治与货币政策风险交织 花旗策略师Daniel Tobon指出，政治不确定性与货币政策宽松是当前做空英镑的两大核心逻辑，而这两大主题将在4月至5月间形成交汇，届时英镑 将迎来"更大幅度的反应"。他称： "现在认真押注这些情景还为时过早，4月和5月是这些主题汇聚的时刻，那才是我们想要参与的窗口。" 期权市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing the most severe political crisis since taking office, triggered by the late American financier Jeffrey Epstein, despite having no direct connection to the scandal [1][2]. Group 1: Political Crisis and Market Impact - The political turmoil has led to a significant rise in UK government bond yields, with betting markets predicting a high likelihood of Starmer's resignation by the end of June [1][2]. - The Labour Party's support has dropped to 19%, with Starmer's approval ratings falling below those of former Prime Minister Liz Truss during her crisis [2][3]. - The internal Labour Party elections typically take about two months, and there is currently no clear frontrunner, which adds to market uncertainty [1][2]. Group 2: Comparison with Previous Political Events - The current market response differs fundamentally from the 2022 Truss crisis, where a budget led to soaring bond yields and a plummeting pound; recent fluctuations have not reached such extremes [3][5]. - Starmer's closed-door meeting with Labour MPs indicated he performed well, suggesting he may not be forced to resign imminently [3]. Group 3: Ongoing Risks and Uncertainties - The potential for a more left-leaning successor could lead to fiscal policies that raise market concerns, prolonging uncertainty for bond traders [5]. - The stability of the UK bond market remains fragile, with the upcoming local elections in May and the ongoing Epstein scandal likely to maintain political uncertainty [5].

政治不确定性也迅速传导至金融市场。周一早盘，长期英债与英镑承压：10年期国债收益率一度上升约 8个基点至4.60%，英镑对欧元一度下跌0.7%至87.4便士。投资者担忧，若斯塔默或里夫斯离任，继任者 可能更倾向扩大财政支出。 随着美国司法部上月披露的文件进一步揭示曼德尔森与爱泼斯坦的关系，外界对斯塔默领导力的质疑持 续升温。唐宁街官员私下准备应对内阁成员施压或以辞职相要挟的情形。有内阁助手称，斯塔默"挺过 本周的概率五五开"。 斯塔默发言人表示首相暂无辞职计划，并将于周一晚间与工党议会党团成员会面。然而，危机感正在唐 宁街10号蔓延，24小时内第二名高级幕僚离任，继幕僚长摩根·麦克斯威尼辞职后，首相公关总监蒂姆· 艾伦也宣布离职。 尽管如此，斯塔默当日仍表示将推进其施政议程，并称政治"可以成为一股向善的力量"。多名内阁成员 随后在社交平台发声力挺首相，包括副首相戴维·拉米、财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯等。不过，萨瓦尔撤回 支持被视为对斯塔默的重大打击，尤其在5月苏格兰议会选举临近之际。 智通财经APP获悉，苏格兰工党领袖萨瓦尔周一公开呼吁英国首相斯塔默辞职，原因是其此前争议性任 命彼得·曼德尔森为英国驻美大使。萨瓦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing political uncertainty in the UK is expected to put pressure on the British pound and UK government bonds [1] Group 1 - The resignation of Morgan McEwen, a close ally and chief of staff to Prime Minister Starmer, due to the involvement of former UK ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, in the Epstein case has raised concerns about potential leadership changes in the UK [1] - Market fears regarding possible changes in UK leadership could lead to looser fiscal policies and increased public borrowing, prompting investors to demand a risk premium on UK assets [1]

Group 1 - The Thai general election was held on the 8th, with voting taking place from 8 AM to 5 PM, aiming to elect 500 members of the House of Representatives [1] - The election features three main competitors: the People's Party, the Pride Thai Party led by caretaker Prime Minister Anutin, and the Pheu Thai Party associated with the Thaksin political family [1][3] - The People's Party leads in voting intention for constituency representatives with 33.56%, followed by the Pride Thai Party at 22.76% and the Pheu Thai Party at 16.92% [3] Group 2 - Economic issues and border security are significant factors influencing voter decisions, with rising living costs and economic stagnation being major concerns for voters [3] - The election results are unofficial initially, with the Election Commission required to verify the official results within 60 days, expected to be announced by April 9 [4] - As of the election night, approximately 25% of the votes had been counted, indicating that the Pride Thai Party was leading in the unofficial results [5]

周三，日元对美元延续四日下跌态势，亚洲时段跌至近两周低点，推动美元兑日元突破156.00关键关口，汇率走势受多重因素交织影响，短期多空博弈态势 凸显。 日元持续走弱的核心诱因集中在财政与政治层面。日本首相推行的扩张性支出及减税政策，引发市场对日本财政健康状况的担忧。日本政府债务总额已处于 高位，大规模支出与减税计划进一步加剧公共财政压力，叠加2月8日提前选举带来的政治不确定性，持续削弱市场对日元的信心，成为推动汇率上行的主要 动力。 美元走势偏弱则制约了美元兑日元的上涨空间。尽管有美联储主席提名及政府拨款方案落地等利好支撑，但市场对美联储2026年再降息两次的预期，未能吸 引投资者大量买入美元，美元难以延续此前反弹态势，间接限制了汇率上行幅度。当前市场聚焦美国ADP私营部门就业报告及ISM服务业PMI数据，叠加美 联储官员言论，将进一步影响美元需求，左右汇率走势。 技术面来看，美元兑日元短期上行动能有所减弱。汇率突破156.00关口，延续了此前的反弹走势，相对强弱指数处于66.9，未进入超买区间，与当前涨势匹 配。但MACD柱状图持续收缩，显示看涨动能放缓，短期需关注156.51关键阻力位，该位置叠加100周 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is fluctuating around 0.6920 against the US dollar (USD), having previously reached a 16-month high of 0.6940, supported by cautious market sentiment influenced by domestic economic data, central bank policy expectations, and uncertainties in US politics and monetary policy [1][3] - Recent strong performance in Australia's PMI and employment data has bolstered market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain a tightening policy, with the three-year government bond yield rising to 4.27%, the highest since November 2023, reflecting investor interest in AUD assets [3] - The upcoming December CPI data is highly anticipated, as November inflation has decreased to 3.4%, still above the RBA's target range of 2-3%. An upward trend in inflation could reinforce market expectations for sustained high interest rates [3] Group 2 - The USD is currently under pressure due to domestic political factors, including the risk of a government shutdown, which could weaken investor confidence in the USD and provide rebound space for non-USD currencies like the AUD [3][4] - There are uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with speculation about a potential change in leadership raising questions about future monetary policy. Although such discussions have not materialized, they may still impact short-term sentiment towards the USD [3] - The AUD is in a high-level consolidation phase, supported by domestic economic fundamentals and interest rate outlook, but faces dual risks: lower-than-expected Australian inflation could weaken AUD rate hike expectations, while easing US political risks or hawkish Fed statements could strengthen the USD [4]