Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris International Inc. is expected to report growth in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of 2025, with earnings anticipated to be released on July 22, before market opening [1]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is approximately $10.3 billion, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has risen to $1.85 per share, indicating a 16.4% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Earnings Performance and Predictions - Philip Morris has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.6%, with the last quarter's earnings exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5% [3]. - The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.04% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4]. Factors Influencing Q2 Earnings - Strong pricing strategies have been a significant driver of revenue and operating income growth, as smokers tend to accept price increases due to the addictive nature of cigarettes [5]. - Smoke-free products contributed to 44% of the gross profit in Q1 2025, highlighting the success of the IQOS ILUMA device and other innovations like ZYN nicotine pouches and VEEV ONE e-vapor [6]. Smoke-Free Product Growth - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total smoke-free product revenues for Q1 is $4,225.9 million, up from $3,530 million in the previous year [7]. - Management anticipates a 10% growth in IQOS HTU adjusted IMS for Q2, with ZYN shipments expected to maintain levels from Q1 [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts adjusted earnings between $1.80 and $1.85 for Q2, including a favorable currency impact of 6 cents per share [9][11]. Stock Performance - Philip Morris shares have increased by 9.7% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks industry growth of 10.2% but lagging behind the S&P 500's 19.5% increase [12]. - Compared to major tobacco players, Philip Morris outperformed Altria but was outpaced by Turning Point Brands and British American Tobacco [13]. Valuation Analysis - Philip Morris is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 22.39X, above the industry average of 15.21X [15]. - Despite the premium valuation, the company's growth profile and strategic transformation make it an attractive option for investors [16].

Core Insights - Philip Morris International is expected to report earnings of $1.86 per share on revenues of $10.33 billion, surpassing last year's earnings of $1.59 per share on sales of $9.47 billion [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $285 billion and generated $38 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $14 billion and a net income of $7.6 billion [4] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Philip Morris stock has shown positive one-day returns following earnings reports in 60% of cases, with a median positive return of 3.2% and a maximum return of 10.9% [2][7] - In the last three years, the percentage of positive one-day returns drops slightly to 58% [7] - There have been 20 documented earnings data points in the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day returns [7] Return Correlation - The relationship between one-day (1D), five-day (5D), and twenty-one-day (21D) returns can guide trading strategies, with a focus on identifying correlations between short-term and medium-term returns [6][8] - A strategy based on the correlation between 1D and 5D returns can be employed, where a positive 1D return may lead to a long position for the next 5 days [8]

Core Viewpoint - Upgrading Philip Morris (PM) to a buy rating despite a nearly 50% year-to-date increase is seen as a strategic move, contrasting with a previous downgrade to hold in October [1]. Group 1 - The analyst, Manika, has over 20 years of experience in various industries, including investment management and investment banking [1]. - The investment group, Green Growth Giants, focuses on opportunities in the green economy, indicating a broader investment strategy beyond traditional sectors [1].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are presented with attractive income stock opportunities in 2025, particularly in light of high inflation and interest rates affecting financial results and share prices of leading consumer brands, resulting in increased dividend yields for several top companies [1]. Group 1: Target (TGT) - Target is considered a strong buy despite declining sales, attributed to its low price and high dividend yield, making it an opportune time for investment [4][9]. - The company has faced significant challenges, with its stock down 62% from its highs, and sales decreased by 2.8% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with comparable sales down 3.8% [5]. - Target is making progress in cost management, with operating income up 19% year-over-year, and digital sales showing a 4.7% increase, alongside a 35% rise in same-day delivery sales [6]. - The management has initiated an enterprise acceleration office to enhance technology and data utilization, aiming to improve operational agility, similar to strategies employed prior to the pandemic [7]. - Target has a strong dividend history, being a Dividend King with 54 consecutive years of dividend increases, currently yielding 4.4% [8]. Group 2: Starbucks (SBUX) - Starbucks is noted for its attractive dividend yield of 2.6%, despite underperforming the market and maintaining a share price similar to 2019 [11]. - The company has experienced a decline in sales, but comparable-store sales are stabilizing, with only a 1% decrease year-over-year in the second quarter of fiscal 2024 [12]. - New CEO Brian Niccol is focusing on customer-centric strategies to revitalize the brand and enhance customer engagement in stores [13]. - Starbucks has a strong global presence, which supports consistent financial results and dividend payments, with dividends increasing from $1.44 in fiscal 2019 to a projected $2.44 in fiscal 2025 [14][15]. Group 3: Philip Morris International (PM) - Philip Morris International is positioned for long-term growth, particularly with its focus on next-generation smoke-free products, which now account for over 40% of its revenue [18][20]. - The company reported a 10.2% increase in organic revenue to $9.3 billion in the first quarter, with smoke-free product revenue growing by 20.4% [21]. - Adjusted earnings per share rose 17% to $1.76, and the company offers a dividend yield of 3%, with a strong history of dividend increases [22].

Core Viewpoint - British American Tobacco p.l.c. (NYSE: BTI) is recognized as the "second-best" tobacco company globally, with strong brand recognition and significant market shares, although it does not hold the top position like Marlboro [1]. Company Overview - British American Tobacco has a diverse portfolio that includes next-generation products such as heat-not-burn and vapes, indicating a strategic shift towards modern tobacco alternatives [1]. Market Position - The company maintains a competitive stance in the tobacco industry, leveraging its well-known brands to capture substantial market shares, although it is positioned behind Marlboro in terms of overall market leadership [1].

Tobacco stock Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO ) has had an underwhelming 2025 so far at the stock markets compared with its peers. Even with its ~11% increase YTD, which is considerably ahead of the consumer staples sector, as seen from the 3.2% rise inManika is a macroeconomist with over 20 years of experience in industries including investment management, stock broking, investment banking. She also runs the profile Long Term Tips [LTT], which focuses on the generational opportunity in the green economy. Her ...

FDA Reportedly Authorizes Juul E-Cigarettes — After Prior Ban And Class Action Suit https://t.co/Xn7ICGsuEA ...

Core Insights - Altria has transitioned into a primarily tobacco-focused company, while Philip Morris International has a more diversified and stronger business model [1][4] Market Share and Brand Performance - Altria's flagship brand, Marlboro, holds a 41% market share in North America, contributing to an overall market share of approximately 45% when including smaller brands [3] - Marlboro has recently lost market share, indicating a decline in Altria's competitive position [5] Business Operations and Challenges - Altria's cigarette volume fell by 13.7% in Q1 2025, continuing a long-term downward trend, which is impacting its business significantly [5][6] - The company has faced substantial financial missteps, resulting in billions of dollars in write-downs, highlighting its struggles in adapting to market changes [6] Comparison with Philip Morris - Philip Morris has shown resilience, with cigarette volumes increasing in foreign markets during the same period, leading to a 0.4-percentage-point market share gain [7] - Philip Morris's non-cigarette operations are thriving, generating 42% of its revenue and 44% of its profits in Q1 2025, with strong performance in vapes and pouches [8] Investment Considerations - Investors in Altria are betting on the company's ability to pivot towards non-cigarette businesses, while Philip Morris is currently seen as the stronger investment option due to its successful execution and market performance [9]

Regulatory Updates - FDA allows Juul Labs to continue selling e-cigarettes, ending a multi-year review [1] - FDA clarifies that this decision does not mean the products are safe or FDA approved [1] Controversy - Juul has faced controversy over its early marketing practices [2] - Critics claim Juul intentionally targeted younger consumers with its marketing [2]

Core Insights - 22nd Century Group, Inc. has announced a significant increase in state authorizations for the sale of its VLN® reduced nicotine content cigarettes and other products, enabling new sales activities and product launches [1][2][3] - The company aims to achieve nationwide availability of VLN® products across all 50 states, demonstrating compliance with the FDA's Low Nicotine Mandate [3][4] - The company has over 2,000 partner VLN® retailers preparing to implement sales, with expectations for further growth in the second half of 2025 [3][4] Product and Market Expansion - The increase in state authorizations allows for the launch of new partner brands and private label VLN® products in large, untapped markets across the U.S. [4] - There are over 272,000 retail outlets in the U.S. selling tobacco products, presenting a substantial market opportunity for both VLN® and conventional products [4] - Key state authorizations include VLN® Gold and Green in 41 states, VLN® Red in 21 states, and various Smoker Friendly and Pinnacle® products across multiple states [8] Harm Reduction and Innovation - 22nd Century Group has been a leader in the tobacco harm reduction movement for 27 years, focusing on reducing smoking rates and health harms through its VLN® products [5][6] - VLN® cigarettes contain 95% less nicotine than traditional cigarettes, supported by decades of peer-reviewed studies indicating reduced smoking rates and health risks [5][7][10] - The company utilizes proprietary technologies to create reduced nicotine tobacco blends, ensuring a unique position in the market with its patented products [10]