Core Insights - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has appointed Jon Hudson as Managing Director and Co-Head of its Healthcare Services Investment Banking team, reflecting the firm's commitment to expanding its capabilities in the healthcare sector [1][2] - Hudson brings over 25 years of experience in the healthcare industry, focusing on M&A advisory and capital markets, particularly in provider and physician services, as well as the payor landscape [2][3] - The appointment is seen as a strategic move to enhance Oppenheimer's healthcare investment banking team, benefiting clients through Hudson's extensive expertise [4] Company Overview - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. is a principal subsidiary of Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. and provides a full range of wealth management, securities brokerage, and investment banking services to high net-worth individuals, families, corporate executives, local governments, businesses, and institutions [4]

金十数据7月14日讯，高盛指出，各国央行和其他机构在今年1月至5月期间，平均每月买入约77吨黄 金。高盛仍然预计未来几个季度金价将创下新高。高盛还指出，基金的黄金净头寸已从4月的高位回 落，这为黄金ETF以及央行继续买入提供了"更具结构性的空间"。高盛分析师仍然预计金价到2025年底 达到每盎司3700美元，到2026年年中升至4000美元，并重申"长期做多黄金"的投资建议。 订阅黄金市场动态 +订阅 高盛：各国央行买入黄金热情不减 预计明年年中金价升至4000美元 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report tracks four sets of high-frequency indicators: consumption and mobility, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy [1] - Consumption and mobility indicators show that property transaction volumes in both primary and secondary markets are below last year's levels [2][12] - Traffic congestion is slightly below last year's levels, indicating a potential decline in mobility [8] - Total auto sales volume in June was above last year's level, suggesting a positive trend in the automotive sector [18] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) sales volume in June exceeded the 2024 level, indicating strong growth in this segment [20] - Production and investment metrics reveal that steel demand remains flat but below year-ago levels, with production also declining [23][24] - Local government special bond issuance reached RMB 2.2 trillion out of a RMB 4.4 trillion quota for 2025, indicating significant infrastructure investment [29] - Other macro activity shows that official port container throughput decreased but remained above year-ago levels, while freight volume at major ports decreased [39][43] - Interbank repo rates have edged down recently, and property high-yield credit spreads have narrowed, reflecting changes in market conditions [47][49] - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) appreciated against the USD but weakened against the CFETS basket, indicating mixed currency trends [51] - Recent macro policy announcements focus on stabilizing employment, promoting urbanization, and enhancing social security [53] Consumption and Mobility - Daily property transaction volume in the primary market was below last year's level [2] - Daily property transaction volume in the secondary market was also below last year's level [12] - Traffic congestion was slightly below last year's level [8] - Total auto sales volume in June was above last year's level [18] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) sales volume in June was above the 2024 level [20] Production and Investment - Steel demand was roughly flat but remained below year-ago levels [23] - Steel production edged down and remained below last year's level [24] - RMB 2.2 trillion local government special bonds have been issued out of the RMB 4.4 trillion quota in 2025 [29] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces was slightly below last year's level [30] Other Macro Activity - Official port container throughput decreased over the past two weeks but remained above year-ago levels [39] - Freight volume of departing ships at 20 major ports decreased and was below last year's level [43] - Nowcast indicates China oil demand edged up to 16.9 mb/d in the latest reading [44] Markets and Policy - Interbank repo rates edged down recently [47] - Property high-yield credit spreads narrowed in recent weeks [49] - CNY appreciated against the USD but continued to weaken against the CFETS basket [51] - Major macro policy announcements since March focus on stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development [53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a moderately positive outlook for Asian equity markets, forecasting a 9% USD price return over the next 12 months with a revised MXAPJ index price target of 700, which is 3% above the previous target of 680 [3][47][54]. Core Insights - The macro risk environment has improved, with reduced US economic policy uncertainty and expectations of Fed rate cuts, which are likely to support regional equities [4][32]. - The tariff environment remains fluid, with potential impacts on GDP growth and earnings forecasts, but the overall growth impact may not be as negative as previously feared [14][19]. - Earnings growth is expected to be the dominant driver of returns, with forecasts of 9% and 10% EPS growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively [48][52]. Summary by Sections Current Conditions - The macro risk environment has improved due to moderated US economic policy uncertainty, eased financial conditions, and firm activity data, leading to a 25% rebound in the MXAPJ index [4][5][6]. Tariffs - The tariff situation is expected to influence equity performance, with potential higher rates but greater certainty. The final tariff rates may differ from current expectations, impacting GDP growth and earnings forecasts [14][15][19]. Rates - The Fed is expected to begin cutting rates in September, with a total of five cuts anticipated by mid-2026, which should support regional equities through a weaker dollar [32][33][36]. Returns - The report anticipates a wide dispersion of expected returns across markets, with a forecasted 9% USD price return over 12 months based on earnings growth and a revised index target [47][49][54]. Allocations - The report emphasizes North Asia, maintaining overweights in China, Japan, and Korea, while downgrading Malaysia to underweight. Sector upgrades include capital goods and tech hardware, while autos and consumer staples are downgraded [59][60][69][75].

Group 1 - The analyst has nearly 14 years of experience in the financial industry, covering small and medium-cap companies in Europe, the United States, and South America [1] - The focus is on mature industries such as mining, oil and gas, and real estate, with a preference for M&A deals, deep value investments, and dividend investing [1] - The target internal rate of return for investments is approximately 5%-7% [1] Group 2 - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in the shares of SOIEF, indicating a personal investment interest [2] - The article expresses the analyst's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [2] - There is no business relationship with any company whose stock is discussed in the article [2]

Gender Inequality in Investment Banking - An investment bank president expressed the view that "there's no place for women here" due to family responsibilities and perceived workload issues [1] - The president cited women in their 30s trying to have a family as a reason for their unsuitability, suggesting the workload is too much [2] - The industry perceives women as less committed because men typically do not take leave when starting a new family [2] Impact on Workplace Dynamics - Unequal leave-taking affects not only the men and their children but also the women in the workplace, including spouses [3] - The lack of male participation in family leave negatively impacts the dynamic for women in the workplace [3]

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of over $117,000 on July 11, 2025, driven by bullish momentum in risk assets and its correlation with tech stocks like NVIDIA, which recently achieved a $4 trillion valuation [1] - The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has increased by 15% this year, with a 4.3% gain in the past month, benefiting from favorable policy signals and tightening supply [2] - Bitcoin's recent performance is seen as a pressure release rather than a full-scale bull run, maintaining a tight $10,000 range over the past two months before the breakout [3] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Institutional Adoption - Bitcoin's breakout coincides with Congress's "Crypto Week," where key regulations, including the GENIUS Act for a federal stablecoin framework, will be debated [4] - Positive outcomes from regulatory discussions may enhance institutional inflows into Bitcoin, with shares of Circle CRCL rising over 500% since their IPO [5] - Corporate adoption of Bitcoin is expanding, with companies like GameStop and Goldman Sachs increasing their Bitcoin ETF holdings, enhancing institutional credibility [8] Group 3: Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge - Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against inflation due to its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins, which may help it retain value amid increasing fiat issuance and potential global inflation from tariffs [7] - Bitcoin has gained 26.4% this year, outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which gained 7%, showcasing its strength amid market uncertainties [6] Group 4: Interest Rate Outlook - Potential rate cuts later this year could favor risk-on assets like Bitcoin, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [9][10] Group 5: Bitcoin Miners and AI Infrastructure - Bitcoin miners are pivoting to AI infrastructure, leveraging their data centers for more profitable ventures compared to traditional Bitcoin mining [12] - Companies like Bitfarms are well-positioned to meet the rising energy and space demands of AI computing, given their experience in building large facilities [13] Group 6: Investment Products for Risk-Averse Investors - New Bitcoin buffer ETFs have been launched to make Bitcoin more accessible to risk-averse investors, providing downside protection amid volatility [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that trade tensions are escalating as deadlines for agreements approach, leading to increased uncertainty that may impact business confidence, capital expenditure, and trade cycles [1][7][32] Summary by Sections Trade Negotiation Updates - The report outlines the current status of trade negotiations across various economies in the region, highlighting that only Vietnam has reached an agreement so far, while others remain uncertain [7][9] - Key issues include tariff adjustments, market access for agricultural products, and the complexities surrounding the approval of exports, particularly for critical materials like rare earths [9][48] Tariff Implications - The report indicates that the U.S. may unilaterally set tariff rates, with potential increases in tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, reflecting ongoing trade uncertainties [7][12][21] - Current tariff rates on imports from Asia, excluding China and Vietnam, have seen a significant rise, with the weighted average tariff rate increasing [12][14] Economic Impact - High-frequency data suggests that the growth cycle may be adversely affected in the next 2-3 months due to the ongoing trade tensions, with indicators showing signs of a slowdown in economic activity [32][41] - The report notes that while some economic indicators have remained strong, there is a concern that this may be due to preemptive demand ahead of the July 9 deadline, with subsequent data expected to reflect a downturn [32][42] Regional Trade Dynamics - The report highlights that countries like India, Indonesia, and Thailand are facing significant tariff increases, which could further complicate trade relations with the U.S. [25][48] - The complexities of defining and measuring transshipment issues are also discussed, indicating that imports perceived as transshipped from China may face higher tariffs, complicating trade for other Asian economies [21][31] Future Outlook - The report concludes that trade uncertainties are likely to persist, affecting corporate confidence and capital spending, with potential tactical tariff increases expected if negotiations stall [7][22][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on global economic growth, with expectations of a slowdown due to tariffs and restrictive immigration policies [17][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights that tariff-induced inflation is expected to rise, impacting growth forecasts across various regions, particularly in the US and Euro area [17][41]. - It anticipates a gradual cooling of economic growth in the US, with real GDP growth projected at 1.6% quarter-on-quarter for Q2 2025, and a potential trough in growth by the end of 2025 [13][41]. - In the Euro area, GDP growth for Q1 2025 was revised up to 0.6%, but a decline is expected in Q2 due to trade uncertainties [14][45]. - Japan's economy shows resilience in manufacturing, but inflationary pressures from food prices are becoming a concern [15][43]. - China's GDP is projected to grow 5.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, but a slowdown to around 4.5% is anticipated in the second half due to various economic strains [16][47]. - The report emphasizes that while the global economy is slowing, it is not expected to tip into recession, largely due to strong starting conditions at the beginning of the year [17]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - Real GDP growth is expected to be 1.6% quarter-on-quarter for Q2 2025, with inflation pressures leading to a cautious Federal Reserve stance [13][41]. - The labor market remains tight, but immigration restrictions are projected to lower net immigration significantly [41][43]. Euro Area Economic Outlook - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was revised to 0.6%, but a correction is expected in Q2 due to front-loaded exports and trade uncertainties [14][45]. - Inflation is projected to remain below the ECB's target through 2026, with expected rate cuts resuming in September [14][45]. Japan Economic Outlook - Nominal growth remains positive, with manufacturing sentiment holding up despite tariff risks [15][43]. - Food inflation is becoming sticky, pushing underlying inflation higher, while wage growth remains around 3% [15][43]. China Economic Outlook - GDP growth is projected at 5.2% year-on-year in 1H25, with a slowdown to around 4.5% in 2H25 anticipated [16][47]. - Persistent PPI deflation and modest core CPI gains indicate ongoing deflationary pressures [16][47]. Global Strategy Outlook - The report suggests that US risky and risk-free assets are attractive compared to the rest of the world, with a focus on US equities and core fixed income [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a tactical Neutral (N) rating for equities over a 3-month horizon and an Overweight (OW) rating for equities over a 12-month horizon [5][9]. Core Insights - The current market sentiment has shifted towards a 'Goldilocks' narrative, characterized by a resilient macro backdrop and expectations of dovish monetary policy, despite potential headwinds from tariffs and a mixed growth/inflation outlook [4][15]. - The report identifies three potential risks ('bears') for the second half of the year: a significant negative growth shock, a large rate shock affecting long-duration bonds, and a deepening bear market for the Dollar [5][62]. - There is an emphasis on diversification across asset classes and regions, with specific recommendations for shorter-duration bonds, low volatility stocks, infrastructure, Gold, financials, and selective emerging market exposure [5][63]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has rebounded to somewhat bullish levels after a rapid re-risking phase, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets [4][27]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, the report warns of elevated valuations and a modestly negative asymmetry for equities in the near term, suggesting a higher probability of drawdowns compared to rallies [47][52]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The report recommends a tactical asset allocation of Overweight in cash and equities, Neutral in bonds and credit, and Underweight in commodities for the next 3 months [5][7]. - For the 12-month horizon, the strategy remains Overweight in equities and Neutral in cash, credit, and bonds, while continuing to Underweight commodities [5][7]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year, with a deteriorating growth/inflation mix primarily driven by tariff impacts [15][67]. - The report highlights that while hard data has shown some negative surprises, the labor market remains resilient, and inflation pressures have not significantly materialized [19][67]. Sector and Asset Class Insights - The report suggests that equities may face headwinds from potential tariff impacts and a slowdown in corporate profitability, particularly in the US [66][71]. - Gold is highlighted as a key safe haven asset, with price forecasts raised to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, supported by strong central bank buying [13][71]. Diversification Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification in multi-asset portfolios, particularly in light of the current market dynamics and potential risks [58][62]. - Specific diversification strategies include focusing on shorter-duration bonds, quality stocks, and safe-haven assets like Gold and the Swiss Franc [71][82].