Sales Performance and Market Demand - The company has maintained stable growth in phosphate fertilizer sales over the past three years, driven by integrated advantages across the entire industry chain and increasing market demand for efficient and environmentally friendly fertilizers [2] - The market for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) is robust, with strong demand from both agricultural and industrial sectors, leading to a promising outlook for the phosphate market [3] Project Developments - The company is advancing its 700,000-ton ammonia project in Hubei, which is expected to enhance self-sufficiency in nitrogen fertilizer raw materials and improve production efficiency [4] - In Guangxi, the company plans to invest in a green chemical new energy materials project, with a total planned capacity of 1.2 million tons of high-efficiency compound fertilizer and 2 million tons of ammonia [5] Resource Management - The company has significant phosphate resources in Leibo, Sichuan, with a total reserve of approximately 549 million tons and an annual mining capacity planned at 6.9 million tons [6] - The Leibo base will support the supply of raw materials for various products, enhancing overall profitability and market competitiveness [7] Future Growth Potential - Future growth is expected from industry chain collaboration, product structure optimization, and market expansion, with a notable increase in raw material self-sufficiency and improved product structure [7] - The company has implemented cash dividends totaling approximately 242 million yuan, accounting for 30.03% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term policy expectation has a greater impact on coal and coal - chemical industries than the fundamentals. The supply pressure of urea remains high, and the price may face significant downward pressure when domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see for now (View Score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, UR01 closed at 1796 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from July 23; UR05 closed at 1804 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; UR09 closed at 1785 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1775 yuan/ton, with a high of 1796 yuan/ton, a low of 1768 yuan/ton, and closed at 1785 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 1782 yuan/ton, and a position of 173,791 lots [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In most regions, domestic small - particle urea spot prices decreased on July 24 compared to July 23. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1830 yuan/ton to 1810 yuan/ton (-1.09%); in Henan, from 1850 yuan/ton to 1830 yuan/ton (-1.08%); in Hebei, from 1800 yuan/ton to 1780 yuan/ton (-1.11%); in Jiangsu, from 1840 yuan/ton to 1820 yuan/ton (-1.09%). The price in the Northeast remained unchanged at 1760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi and downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 24 compared to July 23 [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 37 yuan/ton on July 23 to 6 yuan/ton on July 24, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread**: The spread of 01 - 05 increased from - 14 yuan/ton on July 23 to - 8 yuan/ton on July 24, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The supply pressure of urea is large, with daily production close to 200,000 tons, which is at a high level. The inventory of upstream enterprises is still about 750,000 tons, although the enterprise inventory has continued to decline slightly, mainly due to the increase in port collection [1]. - **Demand**: The top - dressing demand in July will support the price. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1].

Core Viewpoints - The current structure of the domestic urea market shows a contradiction: inventory is decreasing while agricultural demand is in a lull, and small package exports are restricted [3] - Despite some maintenance in production facilities, overall daily output remains high, indicating sufficient market supply [3] - Agricultural demand is weakening as the northern summer fertilization season comes to an end, and the production of compound fertilizers for autumn has not yet started on a large scale, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and downward pressure on futures prices [3] Supply Side Analysis - Domestic urea daily production is approximately 192,600 tons with an operating rate of 81.62%, which is an increase of 9,400 tons compared to the same day last year [1] - Several production facilities are undergoing maintenance, including a 15-day maintenance at Henan Zhongying and a 200-day upgrade at Shanxi Jinfeng [1][2] - Overall supply remains ample despite some production disruptions [1][3] Demand Side Analysis - Agricultural demand is expected to weaken as the summer fertilization season concludes, and the production of compound fertilizers has not yet ramped up significantly [2][3] - Downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers are primarily focused on selling existing inventory due to high stock levels, which limits support for urea demand [2][3] - The average pre-sale days for July is 3.43 days, unchanged month-on-month but down 12.60% year-on-year, indicating a short-term purchasing approach from downstream buyers [2] Inventory and Export Dynamics - As of July 23, 2025, total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 858,800 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons or 4.10% from the previous week [2] - Although domestic urea demand is weak, some inventory is still being exported, leading to a slight reduction in overall factory stock [2] - India’s IPL has announced a new round of urea import tenders for 2 million tons, with a bid deadline of August 4 [2] Market Strategy - A short-term range trading strategy is recommended, with a price range of 1,740 to 1,820 [4] - If futures prices fall below 1,780 yuan/ton, a small long position may be considered due to the higher certainty of supply contraction compared to the persistence of weak demand [4] - If prices rebound above 1,830 yuan/ton, a short position may be advisable as spot prices are unlikely to support significant futures price increases [4]

Financial Services for Rural Reform - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued guidelines to enhance financial services for rural reform and promote comprehensive rural revitalization [1] - The guidelines emphasize the establishment of standardized rural property transfer and transaction platforms, encouraging local exploration of management systems for agricultural facilities and livestock rights [1] - There is a focus on deepening financial services for collective forest rights reform, increasing loans for forest rights mortgages, and supporting rural collective economic organizations [1] Agricultural Financing and Innovation - The guidelines promote financial services for seed industry revitalization, particularly for major research platforms and core seed technology projects, with an emphasis on long-term, low-cost R&D loans [1] - There is an initiative to establish differentiated credit assessment systems for technology innovation enterprises in agriculture, including machinery and smart agriculture [1] - The guidelines also encourage the expansion of merger and acquisition loans to support market-oriented mergers and reorganizations in agricultural technology [1] Stock Market Implications - Several agricultural-related Hong Kong stocks are mentioned, including First Tractor Company (00038), October Rice Field (09676), and China Heart Link Fertilizer (01866), indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [2]

报告摘要 事件： 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证 券研究所的官方订阅号。 7 月 18 日， 国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍 2025年上半年工业和信息化发展情况。工业和信 息化部总工程师谢少锋表示，将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方 案，推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。 点评： 尿素老旧装置占比较高，具备反内卷和老旧产能淘汰基础 我国改革开放前期，农业对化肥需求十分迫切， ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report, July 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [7] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [7] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1785 (-3/-0.17%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices remained stable, with trading volume mediocre. Prices in different regions ranged from 1620 - 1820 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On July 24, it was 19.52 million tons, an increase of 0.25 million tons from the previous workday and 1.25 million tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: It was 84.29%, a 1.47% increase from 82.82% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: General in the market, with factory quotes in mainstream areas showing a hidden decline. Different regions had different trends in quotes [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, with daily output dropping to around 19 million tons, still at the highest level in the same period [5] - Demand: The new India tender price was announced, with a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets. However, the overall demand showed a downward trend, and the export port inspection policy relaxation had limited impact on the domestic spot [5] - Inventory: Urea production enterprise inventory continued to decline to around 86 million tons but remained high [5] - Outlook: In the export quota system, export volume is expected to increase significantly in the third quarter, and the demand side will gradually improve, so it is advisable to go long on dips [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Go long on dips, do not chase [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on dips [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yara International's stock has experienced a decline, with a current price of 31.74 yuan and a rolling PE ratio of 23.39 times, which is below the industry average of 26.28 times [1][2] - Yara International's market capitalization stands at 29.329 billion yuan, ranking 16th in the fertilizer industry based on PE ratio [1][2] - The company has seen a net outflow of main funds amounting to 50.21 million yuan on July 24, with a total outflow of 220.81 million yuan over the past five days [1] Group 2 - Yara International's main business includes potassium salt mining, potassium fertilizer production, and sales, with key products being potassium chloride and brine [1] - The latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 shows that the company achieved an operating income of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 373.53%, with a gross profit margin of 54.12% [1]

2025 年 07 月 24 日 尿素：成交转弱，高位回落，步入震荡格局 | | 杨鈜汉 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,773 | 1,817 | -44 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,788 | 1,806 | -18 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 288,338 | 314,653 | -26315 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 180,800 | 191,764 | -10964 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,523 | 2,523 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,030,856 | 1,136,221 | -10536 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, policy expectations outweigh fundamental impacts on the urea market. Although the policy of promoting stable growth in key industries may boost the market sentiment, the supply pressure of urea remains high, and the price may face significant downward pressure if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented [1]. 3. Content Summary by Category a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 23, compared with July 22, UR01 closed at 1779 yuan/ton (-30 yuan or -1.66%), UR05 at 1793 yuan/ton (-22 yuan or -1.21%), UR09 at 1773 yuan/ton (-44 yuan or -2.42%), and Shandong spot - related futures at 1830 yuan/ton (-10 yuan or -0.54%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Shanxi's spot price dropped to 1690 yuan/ton (-30 yuan or -1.74%), while prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained stable. The price of melamine in Jiangsu decreased to 5100 yuan/ton (-100 yuan or -1.92%), while most downstream prices such as compound fertilizer prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1]. b. Market Information - **Futures Contract Details**: The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1827 yuan/ton, with a high of 1827 yuan/ton, a low of 1760 yuan/ton, a close of 1773 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1788 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 180,800 lots [1]. c. Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The daily production of urea is close to 200,000 tons, at a high level, and the enterprise inventory is about 750,000 tons, with a slight de - stocking mainly due to increased port collection [1]. - **Demand**: The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer industry in China, focusing on market dynamics, production challenges, and future outlooks [1][2][3]. Key Points on Nitrogen Fertilizer (Urea) - The domestic urea market faces challenges such as overcapacity, high proportion of outdated production capacity, significant cost differences, and export volume impacting pricing. However, increased export quotas may help mitigate losses from supply stability [1][6]. - Coal price fluctuations in the first half of the year reduced costs for some coal chemical products, altering the cost curve between gas-based and oil-based urea, with gas-based urea showing price resilience [1][8]. - The government has set demands for single nutrient fertilizers to not increase or even decrease, but food security strategies and policies supporting land restoration are expected to sustain fertilizer demand. The per-acre fertilizer application in China is nearing levels seen in developed countries, indicating overall demand growth [1][10]. - The urea supply pressure is slightly better than initial expectations for the year, with an estimated release of about 2 million tons in the first half and an additional 1-2 million tons expected in the second half [10]. Key Points on Phosphate Fertilizer - The phosphate market is under pressure from rising raw material prices and domestic supply stabilization requirements. The first quarter saw low export volumes due to delayed export quotas, but limited new capacity and high overseas phosphate prices are expected to improve company performance in the third quarter [1][11]. - Phosphate rock pricing is crucial for the profitability of integrated phosphate fertilizer companies, with expectations for high prices to persist throughout the year, allowing for strong profit margins [1][14]. - The phosphate industry is experiencing tight supply-demand conditions, influenced by high raw material prices and concentrated procurement demands from exporting countries. This has led to a relative shortage in overseas phosphate supply, supporting phosphate prices [1][13]. Challenges and Opportunities - The nitrogen fertilizer industry faces four main challenges: overcapacity, a significant proportion of outdated production capacity, notable differences in profitability across production methods, and the impact of export volumes on domestic demand and pricing [6]. - The phosphate industry is also grappling with challenges such as high raw material prices and the need for domestic supply stabilization, but there are opportunities for improved performance due to concentrated export activities in the third quarter [11][12]. Future Outlook - The outlook for nitrogen fertilizer remains cautiously optimistic despite potential price fluctuations, while the phosphate fertilizer environment appears stable with a positive trend in performance [3][16]. - The overall market environment for both nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers is expected to remain favorable, with no significant new capacity pressures or disruptions to market order anticipated [16].