Summary of Thermal Coal Production and Inventory in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of August 7 to August 13, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total thermal coal output from the 100 sample mines was **12,153 kt**, reflecting a **0.1% increase week-over-week (WoW)**, a **3.6% increase year-over-year (YoY)**, and a **3.7% increase YoY on the lunar calendar** [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: **2,967 kt** (+0.6% WoW, +12.0% YoY, +11.9% YoY on lunar calendar) - Shaanxi: **3,700 kt** (+2.2% WoW, +2.7% YoY, +2.7% YoY on lunar calendar) - Inner Mongolia: **5,486 kt** (-1.4% WoW, +0.1% YoY, +0.4% YoY on lunar calendar) - Year-to-date (YTD) output for the sample mines reached **400 million tonnes (mnt)**, representing a **3.7% increase YoY** [2] Utilization Ratio - The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was **90.0%**, which is a **0.1 percentage point (ppt) increase WoW** and a **3.1 ppt increase YoY** [3] - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: **86.2%** (+0.5 ppt WoW, +9.2 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: **94.4%** (+2.0 ppt WoW, +2.5 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **89.3%** (-1.3 ppt WoW, +0.1 ppt YoY) [3] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory in the sample mines was **3,179 kt** as of August 13, 2025, showing a **0.8% decrease WoW** but a **1.1% increase YoY** [4] - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: **880 kt** (-1.3% WoW, +4.9% YoY) - Shaanxi: **705 kt** (+0.9% WoW, -10.5% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **1,594 kt** (-1.3% WoW, +5.1% YoY) [4] Market Sentiment - The overall market expectation regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector remains cautious, despite the positive production and utilization trends observed [1] Comparative Industry Ranking - The current pecking order of industries based on demand is as follows: aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these trends as they can indicate potential investment opportunities or risks within the thermal coal sector in China [1][2][3][4]

Group 1: Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas Production - In July, the production of raw coal decreased, with an output of 380 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 3.8% [2] - The cumulative production of raw coal from January to July reached 2.78 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [2] - Raw oil production remained stable, with July output at 18.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [4] - From January to July, the cumulative raw oil production was 126.6 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [4] - The processing of raw oil accelerated, with July processing volume at 63.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [5] - Cumulative raw oil processing from January to July was 424.68 million tons, up 2.6% year-on-year [5] - Natural gas production saw an accelerated growth, with July output at 21.6 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [9] - From January to July, the cumulative natural gas production was 152.5 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [9] Group 2: Electricity Production - Electricity production in July increased, with a total generation of 926.7 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [11] - The cumulative electricity generation from January to July was 5,470.3 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [11] - In July, the daily average electricity generation was 29.89 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year daily average growth of 1.8% after adjusting for the number of days [11] - By type, thermal power generation increased by 4.3% year-on-year, while hydropower saw a decline of 9.8% [11] - Nuclear power generation grew by 8.3%, although the growth rate slowed by 2.0 percentage points compared to June [11] - Wind power generation increased by 5.5%, with an acceleration in growth compared to previous months [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - After the release of US CPI data, Asia IG opened firmly, and the market almost fully priced in a 25bps rate cut in Sep'25 and a high chance of another 25bps cut in Oct'25 [1] - CMBI expects USD/RMB may drop again in 4Q25 when US inflation might decline and China might launch additional fiscal stimulus; USD/RMB to reach 7.10 at end - 2025 [2] - Maintain buy on INDYIJ 8.75 05/07/29, considering its sufficient liquidity, disciplined capex, and strong technicals in the Indonesia oil & gas and mining sectors [13] - The PBOC will maintain easing liquidity condition, which is positive for Chinese stocks and commodities, and might cut RRR by 50bps and LPRs by 10bps in 4Q25 [17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Asia IG opened firmly after US CPI data release. Newly issued WYNMAC 6.75 moved 0.7pt higher, and some bonds like MGMCHIs, MTRC perps, etc., had price changes. Chinese properties ROADKG 28 - 30s dropped 2.3 - 3.3pts [1] - SHIKON tightened 5bps in the morning, HK banks T2s tightened 3bps, Korea space was unchanged to 2bps tighter, and some floaters and perps had price movements [2] - There is demand from China - based investors for Japanese insurance hybrids and Yankee AT1s, and bonds in SEA and LGFV also had price changes [3] Marco News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P (+0.32%), Dow (+1.04%), and Nasdaq (+0.14%) were higher, and UST yield was lower with 2/5/10/30 yield at 3.67%/3.77%/4.24%/4.83% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - INDYIJ's 1H25 profit eroded due to lower ASP and softened market demand. Revenue declined 20.0% yoy to USD957mn, with coal ASP and sales volume decreasing. Operating profit and adj. EBITDA dropped 49.4% and 28.1% respectively [7] - Indika has been diversifying into non - coal businesses, but coal operations still drive performance. It incurred negative FCF in 1H25, and total debt/LTM EBITDA and net debt/LTM EBITDA weakened [9][10][11] - Indika has proactive liability management and smooth access to funding channels. The company is considered a candidate for early redemptions, and INDYIJ 8.75 05/07/29 is recommended as a good carry play [12][13] China Economy - Social financing extended recovery due to robust government bond issuance, but private - sector Renminbi loans slowed. The PBOC will maintain easing liquidity to stimulate credit demand [17] - The central bank might cut RRR by 50bps and LPRs by 10bps in 4Q25. US$/RMB may rise in Aug - Sep and drop in 4Q25, reaching 7.10 at end - 2025 [17] - Outstanding social financing edged up to 9% in July, SF flow expanded by 50.5% but fell short of expectation. Government and corporate bond issuances were strong, while RMB loans to the real economy dropped [18] - New RMB loans remained subdued, with growth of outstanding RMB loans edging down to 6.9% in July. Credit demand in household and corporate sectors was weak, and bill financing increased [19] Offshore Asia New Issues - New issues include Chengdu Sino French Ecological (USD100mn, 3yr, 6.8%) and Henan Water Conservancy Investment (USD500mn, 3yr, 4.3%) [22] - There is no offshore Asia new issues pipeline today [23] News and Market Color - There were 94 credit bonds issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB70bn, and 930 credit bonds issued month - to - date with a 9.5% yoy increase [24] - Various companies had news such as Adani solar arm sued, Adani Ports accepting tendered bonds, Azure Power seeking debt, etc. [24]

Forge Resources Announces Excellent Coal Quality Results and Further Extraction of Recently Encountered Coal Seam from La Estrella Project in Santander, Colombia August 13, 2025 8:30 AM EDT | Source: Forge Resources Corp. Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - August 13, 2025) - Forge Resources Corp. (CSE: FRG) (OTCQB: FRGGF) (FFSE: 5YZ) ("FRG" or the "Company) is pleased to report excellent laboratory results from the recent coal sampling at its fully permitted La Estrella coal project in Santander ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total operating revenue of $102.9 million for Q2 2025, down from $117.8 million in Q1 2025 and up from $93.8 million in the prior year period [19] - Net income for Q2 2025 was $8.2 million, compared to $10 million in Q1 2025 and a loss of $10.2 million in the prior year period [20] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $3.4 million, down from $19.3 million in Q1 2025 and a loss of $5.8 million in the prior year period [20] - Operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was $11.4 million, compared to $38.4 million in Q1 2025 and $23.5 million in the prior year period [20] - Total bank debt increased to $45 million as of June 30, 2025, from $23 million at March 31, 2025 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Electric sales for Q2 2025 were $60 million, unchanged from the prior year period but down from $85.9 million in Q1 2025, primarily due to seasonal factors and a planned maintenance outage [19] - Third-party coal sales increased to $38.1 million in Q2 2025, up from $30.2 million in Q1 2025 and $32.8 million in the prior year period, driven by higher shipments [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to produce approximately 3.7 million tons of coal in 2025, with 2.1 million tons already produced in the first half of the year [16] - The average contracted sales price for coal in 2026 is projected to be approximately $4 per ton higher than in 2025 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on securing long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and has expanded its discussions with multiple counterparties, including utilities [9][10] - There is an ongoing evaluation of opportunities to acquire additional dispatchable generation assets to diversify the portfolio and enhance financial profiles [10][13] - The company is considering adding natural gas capabilities at its Merrell facility to create a dual fuel configuration [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the current market conditions, driven by increasing demand for accredited capacity and resilient baseload power [9] - The company is encouraged by the growing policy support for coal and coal-fired generation at both federal and state levels [15] - Management believes that the shift towards intermittent renewables will create long-term imbalances and greater market volatility, increasing the value of reliable baseload assets [10] Other Important Information - The company appointed Todd Talez as the new Chief Financial Officer, bringing extensive experience in the power and utility sectors [17] - The company has secured a $35 million prepaid firm energy sale with delivery scheduled throughout 2025 and 2026, which will enhance operational flexibility [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are you open to multiple agreements to avoid customer concentration? - Management indicated that they are open to multiple agreements and have been encouraged by the aggressive bids from utilities [26] Question: Should we expect the end user to fund the co-firing upgrade? - Management stated that some customers are interested in co-firing, while others are not, and the decision will depend on the offers received [29] Question: What are your thoughts on liquidity management? - The CFO mentioned opportunities to execute on prepays and refinance the existing capital structure [33] Question: What is the status of the larger scale PPA? - Management noted that while the pricing curve has dropped slightly, the capacity markets have strengthened, leading to competitive conversations [36] Question: Are you actively looking for acquisitions? - Management confirmed they are having conversations and are positioned to take advantage of potential acquisitions in coal-fired assets [41] Question: Will you provide economics around the co-firing opportunity soon? - Management indicated that they are gathering information but will not disclose costs until the project becomes more actionable [48] Question: What is your appetite for reentering exclusivity with counterparties? - Management expressed no current appetite for exclusivity, preferring to gather as much information as possible from various parties [52]

Summary of Thermal Coal Production and Inventory in China Industry Overview - The report focuses on the thermal coal industry in China, specifically analyzing high-frequency on-ground demand trends and production data from 100 sample thermal coal mines during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025 [1] Key Points Production Data - Total thermal coal output from the 100 sample mines was **12,135 kt**, reflecting a **0.1% decrease week-over-week (WoW)** but a **3.7% increase year-over-year (YoY)**. On a lunar calendar basis, output increased by **3.4% YoY** [2] - Breakdown of output by region: - Shanxi: **2,950 kt** (-0.3% WoW, +11.7% YoY, +11.3% lunar YoY) - Shaanxi: **3,620 kt** (+4.8% WoW, +0.9% YoY, +0.4% lunar YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **5,565 kt** (-2.8% WoW, +1.7% YoY, +1.5% lunar YoY) - Year-to-date (YTD) output for the sample mines reached **388 million tonnes (mnt)**, representing a **3.7% increase YoY** [2] Utilization Ratio - The overall utilization ratio of the sample mines was **89.9%**, a **0.1 percentage point (ppt) decrease WoW**, but a **3.2 ppt increase YoY**. On a lunar calendar basis, the increase was **3.0 ppt YoY** [3] - Regional utilization ratios: - Shanxi: **85.7%** (-0.3 ppt WoW, +9.0 ppt YoY) - Shaanxi: **92.4%** (+4.2 ppt WoW, +0.8 ppt YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **90.6%** (-2.7 ppt WoW, +1.5 ppt YoY) [3] Inventory Levels - Total coal inventory in the sample mines was **3,206 kt** as of August 6, 2025, showing a **0.3% decrease WoW** and a **2.4% increase YoY**. On a lunar calendar basis, the increase was **2.0% YoY** [4] - Regional inventory levels: - Shanxi: **892 kt** (-0.3% WoW, +6.2% YoY) - Shaanxi: **699 kt** (+4.2% WoW, -10.6% YoY) - Inner Mongolia: **1,615 kt** (-2.1% WoW, +7.0% YoY) [4] Additional Insights - The report indicates a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery in the thermal coal sector, despite some positive year-over-year production figures [1] - The pecking order of demand for various materials in the market is noted as: aluminum > steel > copper > thermal coal > battery > gold > lithium > cement [1] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the thermal coal production and inventory report, highlighting trends in production, utilization, and inventory levels across key regions in China.

Company Overview - Warrior Met Coal is a U.S. metallurgical coal mining company operating in Alabama with two producing mines and a development project named Blue Creek, which is expected to commence longwall mining in Q1 [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on investing in turnarounds within the natural resource industries, typically holding investments for 2-3 years, emphasizing value for downside protection while still allowing for significant upside potential [2] - The portfolio has achieved a compounded annual growth rate of 29% over the last 6 years [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $46.1 million, significantly up from $5.7 million in Q1 2025 [10] - Total tons shipped in Q2 2025 were 3.9 million, an increase from 3.8 million tons in Q1 2025 [10] - Cost of coal sales decreased to $100.06 per ton in Q2 from $110.34 per ton in Q1, marking the best cost performance since 2021 [11][18] - Total liquidity at the end of Q2 2025 was $556.9 million, up from $485.8 million at the end of Q1 2025 [12][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metallurgical segment realizations increased to an average of $119.43 per ton in Q2 from $118.61 in Q1 [10] - Realizations for metallurgical sales in Q2 were a total weighted average of $122.84 per ton, up from $122.08 per ton in Q1 [11] - SG&A expenses decreased to $11.9 million in Q2 from $12.6 million in Q1 [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. East Coast High Vol A and High Vol B pricing mechanisms reached multi-year lows, with High Vol A falling from $168 per ton to $161 per ton [7][23] - The Australian premium low vol index increased from $169 per metric ton on April 1 to $173.5 per metric ton on June 30 [22] - The U.S. East Coast Low Vol Index rose from $174 per metric ton in April to $175 per metric ton in June [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to fine-tuning guidance as it gains a better understanding of market conditions for the remainder of 2025 [6] - A buyback program has been restarted on an opportunistic basis, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [9] - The company is developing the Kingston Wildcat mine, with expectations of first coal production and shipping late this year [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted challenges in metallurgical coal markets due to weak steel demand and global economic uncertainty [6][20] - The company is focused on strengthening its balance sheet and liquidity position to capitalize on future opportunities [8] - Management expressed cautious optimism about maintaining cost improvements and operational efficiencies [30] Other Important Information - The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act allows metallurgical coal produced between 2026 and 2029 to be eligible for a refundable tax credit, potentially providing a cash benefit of $30 million to $50 million annually [14] - The company is closely monitoring federal legislation related to metallurgical coal's designation as a critical mineral [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you walk us through where the savings came from? - Management indicated that savings were roughly 50% from productivity improvements and 50% from actual spending reductions, with a 10% increase in tons per man hour contributing significantly [30][31] Question: How much further improvement could we see in 2026? - Management was cautious about predicting costs for 2026 but acknowledged the possibility of costs dipping below $100 per ton [34] Question: How are you approaching domestic contracting? - The company emphasized the importance of sustaining business in 2026 with pricing that works over a twelve-month term, rather than focusing solely on spot prices [36] Question: What met price are you assuming in the back half of the year? - Management indicated they are holding flat with current prices, as there has not been much variation from January to now [43] Question: How do you think recent trade tensions could impact your business? - Management reported no negative feedback from customers in India and Brazil, indicating business as usual [45] Question: How many domestic tons do you have contracted for 2025? - The company expects to ship around 3.5 million tons domestically in 2025, with limited spot activity this year [46] Question: What are the expected expenditures on the DTA project? - Management confirmed that spending would remain around $25 million per year, with completion expected around 2028 [50] Question: How might the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern merger impact your business? - Management expressed confidence in their strong relationship with Norfolk Southern and anticipated minimal impact from the merger [52][53]

Company Overview - Alpha sold 171 million tons of coal in 2024[11] - Alpha's adjusted EBITDA in 2024 was $408 million[11] - Export sales accounted for 76% of Alpha's sales mix, while domestic sales made up 24%[11] Production and Reserves - Total production in 2024 was 157 million tons[18] - Total reserves as of year-end 2024 were 299 million tons[18] - Marfork Mining Complex accounted for 29% of 2024 production and 31% of total reserves[18] Financial Performance - In 2024, the average realized price for domestic coal was $152 per ton, while the average realized price for export coal was $140 per ton[37] - Alpha plans to invest approximately $27 million per year in DTA for infrastructure and equipment upgrades over the next 5 years[53] - Free cash flow for 2024 was $349 million[43] Safety and Environment - Alpha's safety performance shows approximately 35% lower Total Reportable Incident Rate vs industry average[16] - Alpha's safety performance shows approximately 70% lower Non-Fatal Days Lost vs industry average[16] - Alpha has planted over 53 million trees since 2016[16]

Financial Performance - Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported a net loss of $5.0 million for Q2 2025, an improvement from a net loss of $33.9 million in Q1 2025 and a profit of $58.9 million in Q2 2024 [4][5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $46.1 million, significantly up from $5.7 million in Q1 2025 [4][30] - Operating cash flow increased to $53.2 million in Q2 2025, compared to $22.2 million in Q1 2025 [8] Coal Revenues - Total coal revenues for Q2 2025 were $548.7 million, slightly up from $529.7 million in Q1 2025 [4][5] - The metallurgical segment's coal revenues (excluding freight and handling) were $464.1 million for Q2 2025, compared to $445.7 million in Q1 2025 [4][5] - The average realized price for metallurgical coal was $119.43 per ton in Q2 2025, up from $118.61 per ton in Q1 2025 [6][32] Cost Management - The cost of coal sales per ton decreased to $100.06 in Q2 2025 from $110.34 in Q1 2025, attributed to improved cost performance [7][32] - The company has lowered its full-year cost of coal sales guidance to a range of $101 to $107 per ton, down from $103 to $110 per ton [5][13] Liquidity and Capital Resources - As of June 30, 2025, total liquidity was $556.9 million, including cash and cash equivalents of $449.0 million [9][5] - Capital expenditures for Q2 2025 were $34.6 million, a decrease from $38.5 million in Q1 2025 [8] Guidance Adjustments - The company has reduced its SG&A expense guidance for 2025 to a range of $48 million to $54 million, down from $53 million to $59 million [5][14] - Idle operations expense guidance has been increased to a range of $21 million to $29 million, up from $18 million to $28 million [5][14] Future Opportunities - The recent legislation signed into law includes a refundable tax credit for metallurgical coal production, which could provide an annual cash benefit estimated between $30 million and $50 million [10][11] - The company plans to restart its share repurchase program, having achieved a significant increase in liquidity [12]