Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 22, 2025 08:00 AM ET Speaker0 Good morning, and thank you for participating in today's call. I'm joined by Shane O'Kelly, President and Chief Executive Officer and Ryan Grimsland, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, we will be referencing slides, which are available to view via webcast. The slides have also been posted to our Investor Relations website. Before we begin, please be advised that management's remarks today ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of stock splits and artificial intelligence (AI) on market performance, highlighting that AI could add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030 [1][2]. Stock Splits - Stock splits are a method used by publicly traded companies to adjust their share price and outstanding share count without affecting market capitalization or operating performance [4]. - There are two types of stock splits: forward and reverse, with forward splits being favored by successful companies, while reverse splits are typically used by struggling firms [5][6]. - Historically, companies that have enacted forward splits have averaged a 25.4% return in the 12 months following the announcement, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [7]. Recent Stock Splits - In 2024, numerous prominent companies, including Nvidia, Broadcom, Walmart, and Chipotle, completed stock splits, with only one being a reverse split [8]. - In 2025, the trend continues with non-tech companies announcing forward splits, although the pace has been slower compared to 2024 [9]. Company-Specific Insights - O'Reilly Automotive announced a 15-for-1 forward split, reducing its share price from approximately $1,382 to around $92, benefiting from the aging vehicle market in the U.S. [10][11]. - O'Reilly has executed a significant share-repurchase program, spending nearly $26 billion to buy back over 59% of its outstanding shares since 2011, positively impacting earnings per share [12]. - Interactive Brokers announced a 4-for-1 forward split, marking its first in history, and has seen growth in key performance metrics since the 2022 bear market [13][15]. Fastenal's Performance - Fastenal completed a 2-for-1 stock split, marking its ninth split in 37 years, with its stock rising by 130,700% since its IPO in 1987 [18][19]. - The company's sales are closely tied to the health of the U.S. and global economy, with 73% of first-quarter sales coming from its contract segment, indicating strong customer relationships [20][21]. - Fastenal's total return since its IPO reflects its integration into customer supply chains, utilizing managed-inventory solutions to enhance cost efficiencies [22].

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Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by three main themes: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions [4][8] - The market showed strong performance in the automotive sector, with passenger vehicles and components leading the gains, influenced by better-than-expected adjustments in US-China tariffs and previous significant corrections in the automotive market [4][8] Weekly Review Summary - In the second week of May, the number of compulsory insurance policies reached 443,000 vehicles, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.5% and a month-on-month increase of 29.8% [2][7] - The SW automotive index rose by 2.4%, with the best-performing segments being SW passenger vehicles (+4.4%) and SW automotive components (+2.2%), while commercial vehicles and motorcycles showed declines [2][7] Key Industry Changes - Weipai New Energy launched the 2025 model of the Gaoshan vehicle, equipped with the Coffee Pilot Ultra intelligent driving assistance system [3][7] - BYD was added to the Hang Seng Technology Index [3][7] - Geely Automobile reported Q1 2025 revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, up 263.4% year-on-year [3][7] - The acquisition of 100% equity in Wuhu Changpeng was completed, and the company was renamed Wuhu Top [3][7] - Baolong Technology's second phase of the 4.8MW distributed photovoltaic project in Ningguo was completed and accepted [3][7] Sector Configuration Recommendations - The company maintains a positive outlook for 2025, focusing on three main themes: AI robotics, AI intelligence, and favorable market conditions, with the robotics theme expected to have the highest elasticity in May [5][8] - Recommended stocks for the AI robotics theme include Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, and Precision Forging Technology [5][8] - For the AI intelligence theme, preferred stocks include Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, and Xiaomi in Hong Kong, and Seres, SAIC Motor, and BYD in A-shares [5][8] - The favorable market conditions theme includes recommendations for bus manufacturers like Yutong Bus and heavy-duty trucks like China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power [5][8] Market Performance Tracking - The automotive sector ranked third in A-shares and first in Hong Kong this week, with strong performances in passenger vehicles and components [12][21] - The automotive sector's performance in the SW index showed significant gains, with passenger vehicles leading the way [15][21] Sales Data Overview - In April, the total number of passenger vehicles insured was 443,000, with a year-on-year increase of 29.8% [44] - New energy vehicles accounted for 222,000 units, with a penetration rate of 50.2% [44]

Market Overview - The Russell 2000 index, a benchmark for small-cap stocks, has increased by approximately 3.8% this week and 15.7% over the past month, indicating strong momentum in the small-cap sector [1] Interest Rates and Tariffs - Small-cap stocks are sensitive to interest rates, as many rely on debt for operations, making it challenging to absorb higher tariff charges. Interest rates may not decrease as quickly as anticipated, and while progress in U.S.-China tariff negotiations is noted, a finalized agreement is still pending [2] Volatility and Investment Opportunities - Investors should prepare for increased volatility in the next 90 days, but several small-cap stocks mentioned have strong investment potential regardless of tariff and interest rate fluctuations [3] Advance Auto Parts (AAP) - AAP has a 12-month stock price forecast of $45.13, representing a potential upside of 31.10% from its current price of $34.42. Analysts suggest a consensus Hold rating based on 17 ratings [4][5] - The stock is trading near its 52-week low but has risen over 5% in the past week, with a high short interest of over 17%, indicating potential for a short squeeze [6] - AAP's turnaround plan, including closing underperforming stores, is showing positive results, particularly in improving its balance sheet [7] La-Z-Boy (LZB) - LZB has a 12-month stock price forecast of $44.50, indicating a modest upside of 1.00% from its current price of $44.06. The stock has seen a 20% increase this year, partly due to its "Made in America" positioning [9][11] - The company is relatively insulated from tariffs, with much of its production in the U.S., although one-third of its products are still exposed to China [10] - LZB's stock is trading at around 14.9x earnings, which is considered somewhat expensive, but it has recently received an upgrade from KeyCorp with a price target of $46 [11] National Vision Holdings (EYE) - EYE has a 12-month stock price forecast of $17.57, suggesting a downside of 5.53% from its current price of $18.60. The stock was recently upgraded to a Buy from Underperform by Bank of America, with a new price target of $22 [12][13] - The company is implementing a strategic plan that includes price increases of 10% to 15%, which consumers have not resisted so far. However, it anticipates increased costs of $10 to $15 million due to its exposure to China [14] - Following the upgrade, EYE's stock has risen over 50%, prompting a cautionary note for investors to consider waiting for a pullback before investing [15]

Market Overview - As of May 16, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.40% at 3367.46 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.07% to 10179.60 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.19% to 2039.45 points, indicating a broad loss effect in the market [1] - The total trading volume across both markets reached 1.09 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The top three sectors with gains were passenger cars (up 2.28%), auto parts (up 1.95%), and accessories (up 1.87%) [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included fisheries (down 2.27%), insurance (down 1.52%), and cosmetics (down 1.43%) [1] ETF Performance - A total of 323 non-currency ETFs rose, with an increase ratio of 28% [1] - The National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index rose by 2.20%, with various related ETFs also showing gains, including the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (up 2.62%) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (up 2.35%) [1] - The latest share size of the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF reached 1.172 billion shares, closely tracking the National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index [2] Valuation Metrics - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index is 24.83, which is lower than 1.22% of the time over the past three years [3] - The latest PE-TTM for the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index is 23.51, also below 2.74% of the time over the past three years [3] Declining ETFs - A total of 730 non-currency ETFs declined, with a decrease ratio of 64% [3] - The top three ETFs with the largest declines included the Engineering Machinery ETF (down 10.00%), the Innovation 50 ETF (down 4.91%), and the New Economy ETF (down 3.99%) [5] Premium Rates - The S&P 500 Consumer Select Index showed a premium of 26.71%, while the S&P 500 Index had a premium of 13.82% [6] - The top three ETFs with the highest premium rates included the S&P Consumer ETF (26.71%), the S&P 500 ETF (13.82%), and the Saudi ETF (5.29%) [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported $800 million in bookings for Q1 and forecasts $5 billion in bookings for the full calendar year [11] - North America operations generated $2.2 billion in revenue during 2024, with $1.3 billion from U.S. operations and $900 million from Mexico operations [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved 23 new program launches in Q1, including 14 for battery electric vehicle platforms and 19 for new or conquest business [7] - Electric powered steering accounted for 36% of new business bookings, while columns accounted for 45% [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nearly 40% of total bookings are from China OEMs, indicating alignment with growth megatrends in China [12] - The company is experiencing strong customer schedules in North America, with no significant changes related to recent tariff impacts [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on motion by wire technology, which is central to long-term growth and aligns with the shift from hydraulic to electric systems [22] - The strategy includes expanding into steer by wire and brake by wire technologies, with expectations for increased bookings in the China market [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about navigating the dynamic tariff environment and expects above-market revenue growth of 200 to 300 basis points year over year [20] - The company is closely monitoring tariff developments and their implications on North American production volume [21] Other Important Information - The company has successfully resecured an important column business with a North American customer, which had been lost to a competitor [10] - The company is actively working to mitigate tariff costs through changing sourcing locations and negotiating recoveries with customers [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updates on the latest trend in the North America market - Management noted that North America volumes are performing according to expectations, with strong customer schedules in the near term [26][28] Question: Changes in customer order trends due to new tariffs - Management indicated that customer production schedules remain strong and have not changed significantly due to the new tariffs [30] Question: Clarification on USMCA tariff compliance - Management confirmed that to be USMCA compliant, 75% of content must come from North America, and compliant goods can be imported with zero tariffs [32][33]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved record bookings of $800 million and forecasts total bookings of $5 billion for the full year [12][22] - North America operations generated $2.2 billion in revenue during 2024, with $1.3 billion from U.S. operations and $900 million from Mexico operations [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company launched 23 new programs in Q1 2025, including 14 for battery electric vehicle platforms and 19 for new or conquest business [8] - Electric powered steering accounted for 36% of new business bookings, while columns accounted for 45% [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nearly 40% of total bookings are from China OEMs, indicating alignment with growth megatrends in China [12] - The company is experiencing strong demand for by-wire technology, particularly in the China market [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its motion by wire technology, which includes steer by wire and brake by wire systems, to enhance precision and efficiency in EV platforms [15][23] - The strategy includes reducing fixed costs, optimizing footprint, and improving supply chain efficiency to drive margin expansion [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges ongoing challenges such as a dynamic tariff environment and supply chain restrictions but remains optimistic about strong customer schedules and revenue growth [6][30] - The company is well-positioned to navigate tariff impacts and is actively working with customers to mitigate costs [22] Other Important Information - The company successfully resecured an important column business with a North American customer, which had been lost to a competitor [11] - The company expects to start production of rear wheel steering contracts with leading Chinese OEMs in 2026 [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updates on the latest trend in the North America market - Management noted that year-to-date volumes in North America are performing according to expectations, with strong customer schedules [27][30] Question: Changes in customer order trends due to new tariffs - Management indicated that customer production schedules remain strong and have not changed significantly due to the new tariffs [31] Question: Clarification on USMCA tariff compliance - Management confirmed that for USMCA compliant shipments, there is no tariff if 75% of content comes from North America; otherwise, a 25% tariff applies [33][34]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported $800 million in bookings for Q1 2025 and forecasts $5 billion in bookings for the full calendar year [11] - North America operations generated $2.2 billion in revenue during 2024, with $1.3 billion from U.S. operations and $900 million from Mexico operations [17] - The company expects above-market revenue growth of 200 to 300 basis points year over year for 2025 [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved 23 new program launches, including 14 for battery electric vehicle platforms [7] - Electric powered steering accounted for 36% of year-to-date new business bookings, while columns accounted for 45% [11] - The company secured significant steer by wire bookings, including contracts with a global EV leader and a leading Chinese NEV OEM [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nearly 40% of total bookings are from Chinese OEMs, indicating alignment with growth megatrends in China [12] - The company is experiencing strong customer schedules in North America, with no significant changes related to recent tariff impacts [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on motion by wire technology as a central part of its long-term growth strategy, transitioning from hydraulic to electric control systems [21] - The company aims to expand its motion by wire chassis portfolio, including steer by wire and brake by wire technologies [10][14] - The strategy includes reducing fixed costs, optimizing footprint, and improving supply chain efficiency to drive margin expansion [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing challenges such as dynamic tariff environments and supply chain restrictions but expressed confidence in navigating these issues [5][20] - The company remains optimistic about the North American market, despite potential volatility due to tariffs [26][27] Other Important Information - The company launched several new programs at the Shanghai Auto Show, emphasizing its commitment to innovative technology [6] - The company is actively working to mitigate tariff costs through changing sourcing locations and negotiating recoveries with customers [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updates on the latest trend in the North America market - Management noted that North America volumes are performing according to expectations, with strong customer schedules in the near term [24][26] Question: Changes in customer order trends due to new tariffs - Management indicated that customer production schedules remain strong and have not changed significantly due to the new tariffs [28] Question: Clarification on USMCA tariff compliance - Management confirmed that to be USMCA compliant, 75% of content must come from North America, and compliant goods can be imported with zero tariffs [30][31]

中央计算平台CCP产品配套小鹏，出货量持续增加；此外，公司的车身域控制器成功助力福田比亚乔轻卡NP6车 型通过欧标最新信息安全等法规认证并量产，标志着经纬恒润正式在欧洲推出商用车域控产品并落地配套。 （4）底盘控制方面，公司底盘域控制器产品配套长安阿维塔并陆续起量；后轮转向产品将于今年量产配套某高 端智慧品牌。 （5）AR HUD方面，公司新获多个车型项目定点并将陆续量产，该产品也是公司单车价值量较高的产品之一。 （6）自研工具软件方向，主要软件系列产品INTEWORK、ModelBase、OrienLink均实现了客户群体的扩大与应 用，涵盖红旗、比亚迪、蔚来、长安、重汽、零跑、百度阿波罗、极氪、广汽、赛力斯、博世等客户。 据介绍，得润电子的研发投入主要在智能驾驶、车身域控、新能源和动力、底盘控制、ARHUD、自研工具软件 等方向，研发成效主要体现如下： （1）智能驾驶方面，公司ADAS推出新一代产品，采用800万像相机，同时ADAS出货量持续提升，2024年出货 量超100万套。 （2）车身域控方面，ZCU、CCP产品出货量持续提升，成为公司收入增量的重要来源。 （3）新能源和动力方面，多合一控制器XCU ...