Hong Kong red-hot market for initial public offerings is set to close the year with its busiest month for listings in at least four years as companies rush to list their shares https://t.co/ERwnRgkzoi ...

14 December 2025 | 10:14PM HKT Economics Research China: Three things in China Three quick highlights from China: China's year-to-date goods trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in history 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec USD bn USD bn China year-to-date goods trade surplus 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 Source: China Customs, Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research n Underlying inflation remains s ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares Market in China - **Date**: December 11, 2025 Core Insights - **Market Sentiment**: Increased sentiment in the A-share market due to higher turnover, with a cautiously constructive outlook maintained. A more aggressive fiscal policy and improved US-China relations could lead to a more bullish stance [1][2] - **Investor Sentiment Metrics**: The weighted MSASI (Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator) increased by 6 percentage points to 47% compared to the previous cutoff date, while the 1-month moving average (1MMA) decreased by 2 percentage points to 55% [2] - **Turnover Statistics**: Daily turnover for various segments increased: - ChiNext: Up 5% to RMB 496 billion - A-shares: Up 6% to RMB 1,780 billion - Equity futures: Up 22% to RMB 376 billion - Margin transactions: Up 1% to RMB 2,473 billion [2] - **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading saw net inflows of USD 0.3 billion from December 4 to December 10, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching USD 169 billion and USD 1.4 billion, respectively [3] Economic Outlook - **GDP Projections**: The 2026 GDP target remains at 5%, with a fiscal package expected to be flat compared to 2025. There is potential for a mid-year top-up of approximately 0.5 percentage points of GDP if necessary. The forecast for 2026 real GDP growth is maintained at 4.8%, with nominal GDP growth around 4.1% [4] - **CPI Trends**: November CPI showed strong performance due to fluctuations in vegetable prices and gold, while core services remained soft. December CPI is expected to be supported by a low base in food prices but weighed down by normalization in vegetable prices [14] Investment Considerations - **Cautious Optimism**: Despite recent volatility, a mid-single-digit upside is anticipated due to fair valuations and moderate earnings growth outlook for 2026. Key catalysts for a more bullish outlook include improvements in US-China relations and a more aggressive fiscal pivot, particularly regarding housing inventory [15][16] - **Sector Breakthroughs**: Advancements in China's technology sector and expanding markets could justify a significant re-rating of the market [15] Additional Insights - **Earnings Estimate Revisions**: The breadth of consensus earnings estimate revisions remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [2] - **Normalization of Sentiment Metrics**: The MSASI is based on 12 individual indicators capturing various dimensions of investor sentiment, normalized to reduce noise from high-frequency movements [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] Conclusion - The A-share market is experiencing increased sentiment and turnover, with cautious optimism for future growth driven by potential policy changes and sector advancements. Investors should monitor key economic indicators and sentiment metrics for further insights into market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the December FOMC Meeting Industry Overview - The document primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and economic outlook, impacting the financial services and investment banking sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Rate Cut Announcement**: The Federal Reserve reduced the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5-3.75% with a focus on data dependency for future adjustments [6][9][10] 2. **Dissenting Opinions**: There were three dissents during the meeting; two members favored holding rates steady while one member advocated for a larger 50 basis point cut [6][20] 3. **Labor Market Concerns**: Chair Powell indicated that the labor market is showing signs of cooling, with unemployment rising by 0.3 percentage points since June [26][30] 4. **Inflation Outlook**: The Fed noted a slight decrease in inflation pressures, particularly in services, while goods inflation remains influenced by tariffs [28][29] 5. **Future Rate Cuts**: The Fed is expected to consider further cuts in January and April, contingent on labor market stability and inflation trends [9][30][34] 6. **Economic Projections**: The Fed upgraded its growth projections for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a more optimistic outlook despite ongoing risks [35][37] 7. **Reserve Management Purchases**: The Fed will initiate purchases of Treasury bills at a pace of $40 billion per month to maintain ample reserves, which is distinct from quantitative easing [12][15][77] 8. **Market Reactions**: The announcement led to a positive response in agency mortgages and a rally in Treasury yields, indicating market confidence in the Fed's approach [58][97] Additional Important Content 1. **Data Dependency**: The Fed emphasized a return to a data-dependent approach for future rate adjustments, raising the bar for further cuts [16][24] 2. **Unemployment Rate**: The unemployment rate is now viewed as being above the longer-run estimate, which could signal potential concerns for future economic stability [18][19] 3. **Balance of Risks**: The Fed sees risks to growth and inflation as more balanced than in previous assessments, indicating a shift in outlook among FOMC members [37][39] 4. **Trade Ideas**: Recommendations for investors include maintaining long positions in UST 5-year notes and entering buy contracts for FFJ6, reflecting expectations of future rate cuts [69][75] 5. **Housing Market Challenges**: Powell acknowledged ongoing challenges in the housing market, suggesting that a 25 basis point rate cut may not significantly impact housing demand due to low supply and existing low-rate mortgages [101]

Core Viewpoint - Mizuho Financial Group is finalizing the acquisition of KKR-backed Avendus Capital at a valuation of ₹5,900 crore, marking a significant investment in India and highlighting the growing interest of Japanese financial institutions in the Indian market [1][19]. Transaction Details - The transaction will result in Mizuho owning 65-70% of Avendus, with KKR exiting its entire 58% stake. Gaja Capital will retain its 7% shareholding, while co-founders Gaurav Deepak and Kaushal Aggarwal will maintain a combined 12% stake and operational control, although Mizuho will have veto rights and four board seats [2][19]. - This acquisition is noted as Mizuho's largest investment in India, emphasizing the strategic interest of Japanese financial groups in the region [6][19]. Historical Context - KKR initially acquired a controlling stake in Avendus in 2015 for ₹950 crore-1,000 crore and is expected to achieve a blended return of 3.5x in rupee terms over a nine-year period upon exit [8][19]. - Avendus was founded in 1999 and has diversified its investment banking practice beyond technology and internet sectors into consumer, financial services, industrials, and healthcare [11][13]. Financial Performance - Avendus reported a net profit of ₹170 crore for the nine months ending April 2025, an increase from ₹118 crore in FY24 and ₹138 crore in FY23. The firm is projected to achieve profits of ₹250-300 crore in FY26 [14][19]. - The investment banking division has shown strong performance in FY22 and FY23, although FY24 faced challenges due to extended deal completion timelines. A revival was noted in FY25, with nine-month revenue from investment banking surpassing the total revenue of FY24 [13][19]. Strategic Focus - Mizuho's CEO has indicated a commitment to supporting the growth of Indian and Japanese companies, viewing India as a crucial market for future opportunities [10][16]. - Mizuho has been expanding its wholesale banking franchise in India since 2015 and has made significant investments in local financial institutions, including a recent $145 million investment in a credit card issuer [17][18].

Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indexes have gained over 60% since October 2022, with the S&P up about 90%, the Dow up about 61%, and the Nasdaq up about 126% [1] - Americans currently have more money in stocks than ever, with 45% of U.S. households' assets in stock holdings as of Q2 2025 [3] Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have warned of a likely global market correction within the next two years [2] - A potential market slump could significantly impact American wealth, especially given high inflation and an uncertain job market [4] Investment Strategy - Financial advisors recommend rebalancing portfolios to align with original investment plans, especially if it has not been done recently [5] - Rebalancing is essential for managing risk, as asset allocation should reflect the investor's risk tolerance and investment timeline [5]

Core Insights - Despite significant market volatility in October, global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold, providing solid support for gold prices, while emerging "tokenized gold" has not yet become a major market driver [1] Group 1: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates that global central banks net bought 49 tons of gold in October, significantly higher than the pre-2022 monthly average of 17 tons, reflecting robust and sustained demand from official sectors [1][2] - Notably, Qatar purchased 20 tons and China bought 15 tons in October, suggesting that central banks' purchasing behavior is driven by long-term strategic considerations to hedge geopolitical and financial risks rather than short-term price sensitivity [1][3] - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic forecast for gold prices, projecting they will rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, supported by strong official demand and expectations of a shift to looser monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][5] Group 2: Private Investor Demand - The report highlights that the behavior of private investors will be a key variable influencing future gold prices, with potential significant "amplifying effects" if their interest in gold increases [4] - Goldman Sachs' model suggests that a 1 basis point (0.01%) increase in the share of gold in U.S. private financial portfolios could lead to a price increase of approximately 1.4%, indicating substantial growth potential as current holdings in gold ETFs are only 0.17% of these portfolios [4][5] Group 3: Tokenized Gold - Regarding the role of "tokenized gold" such as Tether Gold, Goldman Sachs notes that its impact on recent gold price increases appears limited, with a reported increase of about 26 tons in Tether Gold holdings compared to 197 tons in Western gold ETF inflows and 134 tons in central bank purchases during Q3 2025 [6] - The firm views tokenized gold as similar to gold ETFs, both backed by physical gold, but believes it is more likely to serve as a partial substitute for gold ETFs rather than a significant new source of demand, warranting ongoing market monitoring [6]

Group 1 - Dominari Holdings Inc. announced a special cash dividend of approximately $10 million, equating to about $0.44 per share, with updated record and payment dates [1][2] - The dividend will be payable on or about January 26, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 5, 2026 [2] - Dominari Holdings operates in wealth management, investment banking, sales and trading, and asset management, while also seeking growth opportunities in AI and Data Center sectors [2] Group 2 - Dominari Securities LLC, a subsidiary of Dominari Holdings, aims to create wealth for stakeholders by capitalizing on emerging trends in the financial services sector [3] - The company emphasizes identifying early-stage opportunities expected to yield high returns for investors [3]

Arthur Carter, the investment banker turned publisher who co-founded the Wall Street firm that propelled the careers of former Citi chairman Sanford “Sandy” Weill and former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, has died. He was 93. https://t.co/VH8AQkw9zK ...

B. Riley Financial offices in Westwood. (Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times) Businessman Brian Kahn has pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit securities fraud in a case that brought down a hedge fund, helped lead to the bankruptcy of a retailer and damaged West Los Angeles investment bank B. Riley Financial. Kahn, 52, admitted in a Trenton, N.J., federal court Wednesday to hiding trading losses that brought down Prophecy Asset Management in 2020. The Securities and Exchange Commission alleged the losses e ...