2 November 2025 | 8:36PM HKT Economics Research China: Trade Dashboard 2025Q3: Trade volume growth accelerated Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n Exports: Chinese export growth accelerated in Q3, registering ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Wang Shuguang's election as Vice Chairman of CICC signifies a significant leadership transition within the company, enhancing his role in governance and strategic decision-making [2][5][7]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Wang Shuguang has been elected as Vice Chairman of CICC, following his appointment as President just two months prior [2][7]. - The board unanimously agreed to elect Wang Shuguang, with his term lasting until the current board's term ends [5]. - Wang will also serve on several key committees, including the Strategy and ESG Committee, Compensation Committee, and Risk Control Committee [5][7]. Group 2: Background of Wang Shuguang - Wang Shuguang, born in November 1974, has nearly 30 years of experience in investment banking, having joined CICC in 1998 [8][9]. - He has held various significant positions within CICC, including head of the Growth Enterprises Investment Banking Department and co-head of the Capital Management Department [8][9]. - Wang has been involved in major IPO projects, including those for China Mobile and Alibaba, showcasing his extensive expertise in investment banking [9]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Wang Shuguang emphasized the importance of the newly launched Sci-Tech Innovation Growth Board, viewing it as a critical institutional supply for capital markets to support national technological innovation [9]. - He highlighted the rapid advancements in frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum information, indicating a robust development of new productive forces [9].

Wall Street’s finest might warn of a crash, but do not expect them to say when it will arrive https://t.co/pBDr0CCbsqPhoto: Reuters https://t.co/FtMQHKUKd5 ...

Core Insights - The concentration of the stock market is at an all-time high, with the top 10 US companies having a market capitalization of nearly $24.4 trillion as of October 23, representing over 43% of the S&P 500 [1][2] - Nvidia alone accounts for nearly 8% of the S&P 500, equating to the total value of all 2,000 small-cap companies in the Russell 2000 index [2] - The concentration of the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 increased by 8.2 percentage points from 34.8% to over 43% in just over 15 months [2] Market Dynamics - Large-cap growth stocks, particularly in the tech sector, have significantly outperformed small-cap value stocks over the past decade [2] - Historical analysis suggests that increased market concentration is typically a sign of a bull market rather than a precursor to a bear market [3] - Despite common perceptions, elevated concentration has often been followed by market rallies rather than declines [3] Investment Strategies - One strategy to mitigate concentration risk is to invest in an equal-weight S&P 500 index fund, which would reduce the influence of the top companies [3] - However, this strategy has underperformed compared to cap-weighted funds, with the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF gaining only 7.6% and 14.5% over one and three years, respectively, compared to the Vanguard S&P 500's gains of 16.0% and 23.1% [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC announced the appointment of Wang Shuguang as Vice Chairman, enhancing the company's governance structure and strategic decision-making capabilities [1][5][6]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Wang Shuguang was elected as Vice Chairman during the 11th meeting of the third board of directors, with unanimous approval [5]. - As Vice Chairman, he will assist the Chairman in his duties and take over if the Chairman is unable to perform his responsibilities [5]. - Wang will also serve as an authorized representative under the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing rules, working alongside co-secretary Zhou Jiaxing [1][5]. Group 2: Professional Background - Wang has nearly 30 years of experience in the investment banking sector, having joined CICC in 1998 after graduating from Tsinghua University [8]. - His career can be divided into four key stages, starting from entry-level positions to becoming the head of the investment banking department and now Vice Chairman [8]. - He has led significant capital market projects, including IPOs for major companies like China Mobile and Alibaba, showcasing his extensive experience [9]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Wang emphasized the importance of the newly established Sci-Tech Innovation Growth Sector, which aligns with national strategies for technological innovation [12][13]. - The sector aims to support high-tech companies with substantial R&D investments and long profit cycles, providing a bridge from laboratories to the market [12][14]. - Wang outlined three strategic significances of the reform: enhancing support for innovative enterprises, improving capital formation and circulation, and strengthening investor protection mechanisms [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - CICC announced the appointment of Wang Shuguang as Vice Chairman, enhancing the company's governance structure and strategic decision-making capabilities [2][4]. Group 1: Personnel Changes - Wang Shuguang has been appointed as Vice Chairman of CICC, just two months after becoming President [2]. - He will also serve as the authorized representative under the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing rules, working alongside co-secretary Zhou Jiaxing [3]. - The board unanimously approved Wang's election as Vice Chairman during its recent meeting [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The appointment is expected to strengthen the synergy between CICC's investment banking and other business sectors, enhancing its ability to serve national strategies [4]. - Wang's extensive experience in investment banking and management is anticipated to inject new vitality into CICC's governance and strategic decision-making [4]. Group 3: Career Background - Wang Shuguang's career at CICC exemplifies the company's talent cultivation system, having joined in 1998 and progressed through various roles over 27 years [5][6]. - His career can be divided into four key stages, culminating in his recent appointments as President and Vice Chairman [6]. - Wang has led significant capital market projects, including IPOs and mergers, showcasing his comprehensive experience in the field [6][7]. Group 4: Insights on Capital Market Reform - Wang emphasized the significance of the newly launched Sci-Tech Innovation Board's growth tier, which aligns with national strategies for technological innovation [8]. - He outlined three strategic dimensions of the reform: enhancing support for tech innovation, improving capital formation, and strengthening investor protection mechanisms [8][9]. - Wang reiterated the mission of investment banking in supporting national strategies, particularly in fostering hard-tech enterprises through capital markets [9].

Core Insights - Houlihan Lokey has become one of Wall Street's busiest investment banks by deal volume, with CEO Scott Adelson highlighting the firm's unexpected growth and success in the investment banking sector [1][4]. Company Overview - Scott Adelson, who has been with Houlihan Lokey since 1987, was appointed CEO last year after serving as copresident and global cohead of corporate finance [3]. - The firm has evolved from its initial focus on restructuring and bankruptcy to handling a diverse range of transactions, including advising on the sale of Color Wow to L'Oréal [4]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, Houlihan Lokey reported revenues of $659 million, a 15% increase compared to the same quarter last year [6]. - Corporate finance revenues reached nearly $439 million, up 17% year-over-year, while financial and valuation advisory services generated $87 million, reflecting a nearly 10% increase [6]. Market Position - Houlihan Lokey is recognized as the top M&A advisor by volume in 2025, having successfully navigated a competitive landscape by hiring senior dealmakers while rivals have reduced their workforce [8]. - The firm has focused on the middle-market segment, typically involving deals valued around $1 billion and under, where it has seen significant deal flow despite larger banks handling higher-value transactions [5]. Industry Trends - The investment banking sector is experiencing a rebound in dealmaking activity, attributed to a steadier rate environment, lighter regulation, and optimism surrounding AI and technology [7]. - Adelson emphasizes that the current capital market conditions are favorable, with abundant capital leading to increased confidence in dealmaking [7].

Core Viewpoint - Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is investigating potential claims against Jefferies Financial Group Inc. for possible violations of federal securities laws and unlawful business practices, particularly in relation to its exposure to First Brands' bankruptcy [1][2]. Investigation Details - The investigation is focused on whether Jefferies has engaged in unlawful business practices that may have harmed its stockholders [1][2]. - Jefferies disclosed that its asset management fund held approximately $715 million in receivables linked to First Brands, which is under scrutiny due to accounting irregularities [6]. Stock Impact - Following the news of First Brands' bankruptcy and Jefferies' exposure, Jefferies' stock price dropped by $4.66, or 7.9%, closing at $54.44 per share on October 8, 2025, resulting in losses for investors [6].

Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 real GDP growth forecast for China from 4.9% to 5.0% based on government spending acceleration and commitment to economic targets [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of China's manufacturing push in driving economic growth and highlights the expected annual growth of Chinese export volumes by 5-6% [9][10]. - It notes that the fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.0 percentage point of GDP in 2026, with total social financing stock growth expected to rise [9][10]. - The report discusses the ongoing focus on high-tech manufacturing and AI investment as a counterbalance to demographic and local government debt challenges [9][10]. Summary by Sections Current State of the Economy - The 2025 real GDP growth forecast has been raised to 5.0% due to increased government spending and commitment to economic targets [6]. 2026 Macro Views - The report anticipates a real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026, which is significantly above market consensus [9]. - It expects the fiscal deficit to widen and further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates [9]. Medium- to Long-Term Views - Chinese export volumes are expected to grow by 5-6% annually, contributing to overall economic expansion [9]. - The report highlights the prioritization of manufacturing, technology, and security in China's 15th Five-Year Plan [9]. Economic Indicators - The report provides a detailed forecast of various economic indicators, including GDP growth, domestic demand, consumption, and inflation rates for the years 2025 to 2027 [13]. - It notes that household consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 4.6% in 2025, with government consumption at 4.0% [13]. Policy Measures - The report outlines several policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and investment, including a consumer goods trade-in program and increased government spending on infrastructure [81][82].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of "directs" in private equity, a model where investors select individual companies rather than investing in pooled funds, driven by the increasing wealth of family offices [2][6][31] - Matt Swain, CEO of Triago, has been pivotal in transforming the directs sector into a significant business, raising substantial capital and attracting attention from major investment firms [5][12][30] Company Overview - Triago, under Swain's leadership, has become a leader in the directs space, raising $3 billion in equity capital for 35 deals, which supported over $10 billion in purchases [12][30] - Houlihan Lokey, a mid-tier investment bank, acquired Triago and has since leveraged its resources to enhance the directs model, aiming to expand into new areas like continuation vehicles and co-investments [23][24][30] Market Dynamics - The directs market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach around $200 billion this year, a substantial increase from previous years [6][30] - Institutional investors, including pension funds, are beginning to show interest in directs, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies towards more direct equity investments [31][32] Investment Strategy - The directs model offers higher potential returns compared to traditional private equity, with investors seeking returns of 3x or more, contrasting with the typical 2x returns from conventional PE funds [13][31] - Directs sponsors typically do not charge fees unless they achieve significant returns, aligning their interests closely with those of their investors [14][19] Competitive Landscape - While the directs model is gaining traction, it still faces challenges in achieving mass adoption among traditional private equity investors, who prefer pooled investments for quicker capital deployment [7][31] - The success of the directs model has attracted competition, which could lead to increased prices and reduced profit margins for existing players [7][30] Future Outlook - Swain envisions a future where directs will revolutionize private equity, making it more liquid and accessible, akin to public markets [31][32] - The increasing interest from large pension funds in directs co-investments indicates a growing acceptance of this model within institutional investment strategies [32]