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申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250826
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 02:11
观 | 评 | 金银反弹,上周杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔表示风险的转变确实值得我们调整政策立场,被认为 | | --- | --- | | 论 | 是较为鸽派的姿态,增强9月降息预期。美国7月通胀数据呈现反弹,近期美俄谈判释放的积极 | | | 信号令地缘风险降温,金银一度承压。此前7月非农数据不及预期,前值大幅下修。美联储内部 | | 及 | 观点呈现分裂,特朗普通过人事任命影响市场对美联储的预期。贸易谈判呈现多方进展,但整 | | 策 | 体贸易环境仍在恶化。大而美法案落地继续推升美国财政赤字预期,中国央行持续增持黄金, | | 略 | 黄金方面长期驱动仍然提供支撑,当下金银整体或在降息预期升温下呈现偏强走势。 | | 免 | 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 | | 责 | (核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号) | | 声 | | | 明 | 研究局限性和风险提示 | | | 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性,对未来预测存在经济表现不及预期,政策判断失误等风险 | | 。 | | | | 分析师声明 | | | 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格,保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道,分析逻辑基 ...
债务水平仍是困扰,惠誉维持对美国“AA+”信用评级
凤凰网财经· 2025-08-23 12:38
Core Viewpoint - Fitch maintains the United States' credit rating at "AA+" due to concerns over rising debt levels and fiscal deficits, despite expected revenue increases from tariffs under President Trump [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Rating and Debt Concerns - Fitch emphasizes that the U.S. has not taken effective measures to address its large fiscal deficit and increasing debt burden, alongside upcoming spending issues related to an aging population [2]. - In 2023, Fitch downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating from "AAA" to "AA+" due to anticipated worsening fiscal conditions and ongoing negotiations regarding the debt ceiling [2][3]. - Moody's also downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating by one notch this year, indicating the loss of the last "AAA" rating due to rising debt levels [3]. Group 2: Economic Flexibility and Tariff Revenue - Despite rising debt levels, the U.S. benefits from a large high-income economy and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, which provides financing flexibility [2][4]. - Fitch predicts that tariff revenues will surge to $250 billion this year, significantly higher than the $77 billion expected in 2024, suggesting that tariff policies may help alleviate fiscal issues [5]. Group 3: Long-term Projections - Fitch forecasts that the deficit will increase in the long term, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise from 114.5% at the end of last year to 127% by 2027 [6]. - Fitch's report maintains a stable outlook for the U.S. credit rating, similar to Standard & Poor's, which also keeps the "AA+/A-1+" rating stable due to the revenue from tariff policies offsetting recent tax cuts and spending [7].
债务水平仍是困扰,惠誉维持对美国“AA+”信用评级
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-08-23 05:10
不过与此同时该评级机构也指出,鉴于美国拥有庞大的高收入经济体,并且考虑到美元作为全球储备货 币的作用,其融资具有灵活性。 债务担忧 2023 年,惠誉将美国主权评级从之前的"AAA"级下调了一个等级,当时该机构指出,预计美国的财政 状况将恶化,并且围绕债务上限的反复谈判仍在持续进行。 而今年,另一家信用评级机构穆迪也将美国主权信用评级下调了一个等级,理由是债务水平上升,这意 味着美国失去了最后的AAA评级。 惠誉的最新报告指出,"惠誉的债务动态模型表明,中期债务走势仍呈上升趋势,这增加了美国未来面 临经济冲击时的脆弱性。" 周五(8月22日),惠誉将美国的信用评级维持在"AA+"水平,并强调了对债务水平不断上升的担忧。 惠誉在一份声明中表示,高额的财政赤字和不断增加的政府债务水平限制了美国的评级,即便预计唐纳 德·特朗普总统大规模征收关税带来的收入增长将使今年的赤字减少,但"AA+"的评级仍不会改变。 该机构还指出,"美国尚未采取切实措施来解决其庞大的财政赤字、不断上升的债务负担,以及与人口 老龄化相关的即将增加的支出问题。" 不过好在,尽管债务水平在上升,但美元在全球储备中的58%份额支撑了美国政府的融资能 ...
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250822
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 03:22
| | 欧盟与美国发表联合声明,公布了双方在7月达成新贸易协议的具体细节。根据联合声明,美国 | | --- | --- | | | 将对汽车、药品、半导体和木材等大多数欧盟输美商品征收15%的关税。欧盟承诺取消对美国产 | | | 工业品的关税,并为美国海产品和农产品提供优惠市场准入。欧盟还计划到2028年前采购7500 | | | 亿美元的美国液化天然气、石油和核能产品,另采购400亿美元的美国人工智能芯片。 | | | 美国总统特朗普炮轰可再生能源是"世纪骗局",即使美国部分地区的电力需求已显著超过供 | | 宏 观 | 给,其政府绝不会再批准新的风电或光伏项目。特朗普将美国电价上涨归咎于可再生能源。 | | 消 | 美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值录得53.3,为2022年5月以来最高水平,远超预期的49.5。服务 | | 息 | 业PMI小幅回落至55.4,但制造业大幅回升推动综合PMI升至9个月新高的55.4。 | | | 美国上周初请失业金人数增加1.1万人至23.5万人,创6月以来新高,高于市场预期的22.5万人 | | | 。前一周续请失业金人数升至197万人,为2021年11月以来的最高水 ...
美国:拿什么拯救,无上限的债务!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 02:45
Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, averaging $107,700 per person, indicating a normalization of high debt levels in the U.S. economy [1] - Since 2010, the speed of U.S. debt accumulation has accelerated significantly, with the national debt increasing by $1 trillion almost every six months since 2020 [3] - The "Big and Beautiful Act," signed by Trump, has paradoxically increased the debt burden rather than reducing it, with projections indicating a $3.4 trillion increase in the deficit over the next decade [6][8] Group 2 - Interest payments on the national debt have reached $879.9 billion for the fiscal year 2024, accounting for 13% of total federal spending, the highest proportion in 25 years [6] - The rising interest rates, resulting from aggressive Fed rate hikes, have significantly increased the burden of U.S. debt, with the average interest rate on federal debt doubling from 1.556% in January 2022 to 3.352% by July 2023 [10][11] - Trump is pressuring Fed Chair Powell to lower interest rates to alleviate the government's debt burden, highlighting the urgency of the fiscal situation [10][11] Group 3 - A fundamental solution to the debt crisis requires controlling the fiscal deficit and balancing the budget, rather than relying on short-term measures like interest rate adjustments [13] - The U.S. is facing a potential economic crisis if effective measures are not taken to manage the growing debt and deficit [8][14]
申银万国期货首席点评:“万亿用电+万亿成交”双破纪录背后的中国经济新韧性
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].
韩上半年财政赤字居历史高位
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-21 03:58
(原标题:韩上半年财政赤字居历史高位) 剔除国民养老金等四大保障性基金后的管理财政收支赤字为94.3万亿韩元,比去年同期减少9.1万亿 韩元,但仅次于2020年(110.5万亿韩元)、2024年(103.4万亿韩元)和2022年(101.9万亿韩元),位 列历史第四。上述数据已反映5月通过的第一次追加预算,第二次追加预算的执行效果将于9月公布的7 月底数据中体现,政府预计届时赤字将有所扩大,但年末将收窄至预算目标111.6万亿韩元左右。 截至6月底,中央政府债务余额为1218.4万亿韩元,环比增加0.6万亿韩元。若计入第二次追加预 算,中央与地方政府合计国家债务将达1301.9万亿韩元,占国内生产总值比重约49.1%。 韩国《中央日报》8月14日报道,韩国企划财政部当日发布的《8月份财政动向》显示,今年上半年 国家管理财政收支赤字为94.3万亿韩元,虽较去年同期的逾100万亿韩元有所减少,但仍为史上第四 高。同期总收入为320.6万亿韩元,同比增长24.7万亿韩元,其中,国税收入190万亿韩元,受企业业绩 改善、利息与股息增加等影响,法人税增加14.4万亿韩元;受海外股市活跃及就业与奖金增加带动,所 得税增加 ...
一国官宣:不降息!
中国基金报· 2025-08-20 14:30
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a slight decrease in inflation rates over the past year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in Israel for July was reported at 3.1%, which is slightly above the target upper limit, but forecasts suggest it will return to the target range in the coming months [3]. - The government has decided to raise the fiscal deficit ceiling to 5.2%, indicating potential challenges in managing economic stability [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The central bank highlighted various risks that could accelerate inflation or deviate from targets, including geopolitical developments, demand growth coupled with supply constraints, and deteriorating global trade conditions [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is expected to impact economic activity, with potential scenarios leading to increased supply constraints and slower economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - The Bank of Israel's Governor, Amir Yaron, expressed a desire to lower interest rates three times next year to reach 3.75%, although the timing for such reductions remains uncertain [4]. - A lower risk premium could lead to a rapid expansion in demand, and the appreciation of the shekel is anticipated to help reduce inflation [5]. Group 4: Investment Climate - The Israeli economy faces uncertainties due to market and technological investment conditions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, which pose risks to the economy [6]. - The reliance of Israel's technology sector on U.S. venture capital funding makes it particularly vulnerable to these uncertainties, affecting overall economic performance [6].
特朗普政府大幅扩大钢铝关税范围 标普预计其政策将带来“可观”财政收入
智通财经网· 2025-08-19 22:33
Group 1 - The Trump administration has significantly expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, imposing a 50% tariff on over 400 product categories, including firefighting equipment, machinery, construction materials, and specialty chemicals made from steel and aluminum [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that the new measures cover 407 new product categories, aiming to close loopholes and support the revival of the U.S. steel and aluminum industries [1] - Experts predict that the impact of these tariffs will be extensive, with the current steel and aluminum tariffs covering at least $320 billion in imported goods, which is expected to further increase inflationary pressures in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] Group 2 - S&P Global indicated that the substantial revenue generated from the broad tariff policy will largely offset the recent significant tax cuts and spending reductions, maintaining the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating at AA+ [2] - The report warns that if the U.S. deficit continues to expand over the next two to three years without effective spending control or addressing the fiscal gap caused by tax cuts, there may be a downgrade in the rating [2] - Despite the increase in customs tariff revenue, the federal budget deficit still widened by approximately 20% during the same period [2]
美债收益率止跌回落 投资者押注美联储9月启动降息
智通财经网· 2025-08-19 22:32
标普分析师Lisa Schineller在报告中写道:"随着有效关税税率的上升,我们预计可观的关税收入将普遍 抵消近期财政立法(包含减税与支出调整)所带来的较弱财政结果。"彭博宏观策略师Alyce Andres评论 称:"标普的表态叠加美联储官员的鸽派信号,有助于债市近期收益率的回落。" 这对特朗普而言也算是一个利好。白宫一直强调关税政策有助于改善美国财政状况。财政部数据显示, 7月份美国关税收入创下新高,海关关税达280亿美元。 不过,评级机构的观点仍对全球最大债券市场造成深远影响。今年以来,随着特朗普减税措施加剧赤字 担忧,穆迪已在5月剥夺了美国最后的最高信用评级,使其评级与标普、惠誉保持一致。这一举措曾推 动30年期美债收益率升破5%,并引发部分养老金被迫抛售风险。 智通财经APP获悉,美国国债在周二扭转连续三日跌势,收益率全线回落,因投资者继续押注美联储最 早可能在9月降息,同时静待美联储主席鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔年会上发表的重磅讲话。 数据显示,美债收益率各期限普遍下跌1至4个基点,10年期基准收益率降至4.30%,结束了自上周四起 的抛售行情。当时美国7月PPI录得三年来最大涨幅,引发市场担忧。 ...