Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices in China will remain unchanged due to minimal fluctuations in international oil prices, with adjustments being deferred to the next pricing cycle [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of January 6, 2026, the average price for the first ten working days is projected to differ by less than 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous ten working days before December 22, 2025 [1] - In 2025, domestic oil prices underwent 25 rounds of adjustments, concluding with three consecutive declines [1] - The final adjustments resulted in a decrease of 915 yuan per ton for gasoline and 880 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Future Pricing Schedule - The next adjustment for retail fuel prices is scheduled for January 20, 2026, at 24:00 [1]

Group 1: Chevron's Market Position and Outlook - Bernstein raised its price target on Chevron Corporation (CVX) to $172 from $170, maintaining a Market Perform rating, indicating a balanced outlook for oil heading into 2026 with expected near-term volatility but long-term strength [1] - Chevron is the only US oil major operating in Venezuela under a US license that exempts it from sanctions, allowing it to export Venezuelan crude to the US [3] - On January 5, Chevron resumed exports of Venezuelan oil to the US after a four-day pause, becoming the only firm consistently exporting Venezuelan crude [3] Group 2: Industry Context and Developments - An agreement between Caracas and Washington allows up to $2 billion of Venezuelan crude to be exported to the US, which is seen as a key negotiation to redirect supply away from China and help Venezuela avoid deeper production cuts [2] - Chevron's operations in Venezuela are significant as it is currently the only company loading crude for export at key Venezuelan ports [3] - Chevron is involved in various sectors including oil and gas production, fuel and chemical manufacturing, and the development of supporting technologies [4]

Labor Market Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of resilience, with jobless claims rising to 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week, but still remaining historically low [2] - The rise in jobless claims is viewed as a proxy for layoffs and indicates that the U.S. economy is performing adequately [2] Defense Sector Performance - Defense companies experienced a market boost following President Trump's announcement to increase military spending to $1.5 trillion by 2027, up from $901 billion [3] - Notable stock movements included L3Harris Technologies rising by 5.2%, Lockheed Martin by 4.3%, and Northrop Grumman by 2.4% [3] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.53 points, while the Nasdaq composite decreased by 104.26 points, indicating mixed performance across major indices [5] - The Canadian stock market benefited from rising energy prices, with the S&P/TSX composite index up by 243.15 points [5] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices increased, with February crude oil contracts rising by $1.77 to $57.76 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical events in Venezuela [6] - Venezuela's potential for increased oil production could lead to downward pressure on prices, although significant investment is needed to improve aging infrastructure [7] Gold Market Update - The February gold contract decreased by $1.80, settling at $4,460.70 per ounce, reflecting fluctuations in commodity markets [8]

Core Viewpoint - Kimbell Royalty Partners, LP will release its fourth quarter 2025 financial results on February 26, 2026, before market opening, and will declare its fourth quarter distribution at the same time [1]. Group 1: Financial Results Announcement - The fourth quarter 2025 financial results will be announced on February 26, 2026 [1]. - A conference call will be held on the same day at 10:00 a.m. Central (11:00 a.m. Eastern) to discuss the results [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Kimbell Royalty Partners is a leading oil and gas mineral and royalty company based in Fort Worth, Texas [3]. - The company owns mineral and royalty interests in over 17 million gross acres across 28 states and in every major onshore basin in the continental United States, including interests in more than 131,000 gross wells [3].

Core Viewpoint - Renewed investor interest in oil stocks, particularly Exxon Mobil, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which may lead to U.S. oil companies participating in the reconstruction of Venezuela's energy infrastructure [1][4] Company Overview - Exxon Mobil is one of the largest integrated energy companies globally, involved in exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals, with a market capitalization of $499 billion [3] Stock Performance - Exxon Mobil's stock has seen significant movement, reaching a 52-week high of $125.93 on January 5, 2026, and delivering a 15% return over the past year, influenced by geopolitical events and market dynamics [5] Industry Dynamics - Venezuela, despite having the world's largest proven oil reserves of over 300 billion barrels, currently produces less than 1% of global output due to decades of mismanagement, underinvestment, and U.S. sanctions, leading to severely degraded infrastructure [6]

Group 1: Oil Price Movements - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 3.2% to settle below $58 a barrel, with prices continuing to climb after settlement, indicating a potential recovery from earlier losses [1] - An annual period of commodity index rebalancing is expected to lead to increased cash flow into crude oil over the next few days, contributing to bullish momentum [2] - Call skews for Brent have strengthened as traders engage in the options market to hedge against price fluctuations [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and US Actions - President Donald Trump threatened to impose severe measures on Iran if the government continues to suppress protests, which could disrupt Iranian oil supply and impact market expectations of a surplus [1] - The US plans to exert control over Venezuela's oil industry, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright stating that the US will initially offer stored crude for sale [3] - Venezuela's state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA is negotiating with Washington to sell crude under a framework similar to that of Chevron, the only supermajor operating in the country [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Company Activities - Citgo Petroleum Corp., indirectly owned by Venezuela, is considering resuming crude purchases for the first time since sanctions were imposed in 2019, while Trafigura Group has also shown interest [5] - Chevron is in discussions to extend its operating license in Venezuela, and Vitol Group has reportedly received a preliminary US license for oil negotiations [5] - Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects noted that the main impact of the situation in Venezuela will be a shift in trade flows, with more oil directed to the US at the expense of China, but not necessarily a significant increase in Venezuelan production [4]

Group 1 - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced a significant rally, with gasoline reaching a 1.5-week high and crude oil prices increasing by 3.16% on Thursday [2][1] - The rise in crude prices is attributed to better-than-expected US economic data indicating stronger energy demand and anticipated buying of oil contracts due to the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes, which is expected to bring in $2.2 billion in inflows [2][3] - Positive economic indicators include a year-over-year decrease in Challenger job cuts by 8.3% to 35,553, marking a 17-month low, and a rise in Q3 nonfarm productivity by 4.9%, close to expectations [4] Group 2 - The US Energy Department's announcement to selectively roll back sanctions on Venezuelan crude could potentially increase global oil supplies, putting downward pressure on crude prices [5] - Morgan Stanley has revised its crude price forecasts downward, predicting a Q1 price of $57.50 per barrel and a Q2 price of $55 per barrel, citing expectations of a growing global oil market surplus [6] - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers decreased by 3.4% week-over-week to 119.35 million barrels, indicating a potential tightening of supply [6]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. oil major Chevron, global trading house Vitol, and other oil traders, producers, and refiners are actively competing for deals to export Venezuelan crude as they negotiate with U.S. officials for licenses to conduct business with the country [1] Group 1 - Chevron is among the key players seeking to secure export deals for Venezuelan crude oil [1] - Vitol, a global trading house, is also in the competition for these export opportunities [1] - The negotiations involve obtaining licenses from U.S. officials to facilitate business operations in Venezuela [1]

Group 1 - Brazilian oil regulator ANP has informed Petrobras that it cannot resume offshore drilling in the Foz do Amazonas basin [1] - The suspension is contingent upon Petrobras providing information regarding a leak of synthetic fluid in the environmentally sensitive area [1]

Group 1: U.S. Oil Market Dynamics - The U.S. President has invited heads of commodity trading firms, Vitol and Trafigura, for discussions on Venezuelan oil marketing, indicating a strategic move to leverage their expertise in oil trading [1] - U.S. oil majors like ExxonMobil and Chevron focus primarily on exploration and production, lacking large trading desks compared to European firms like Shell and BP [4] Group 2: Trading Firms' Operations - Vitol delivered an average of 7.2 million barrels per day of crude oil and products in 2024, while Trafigura handled approximately 4.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, together representing over 10% of global daily consumption [2] - Both Vitol and Trafigura have diversified their operations by investing in infrastructure such as refineries and storage facilities, and are also involved in metals and renewable energy [3] Group 3: Venezuelan Oil Production Challenges - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves at over 300 billion barrels but produces only around 900,000 to 1 million barrels per day, a significant decline from its peak of over 3 million barrels per day due to sanctions and systemic issues [5] - The Orinoco Belt in eastern Venezuela contains most of the country's crude reserves, characterized by extra-heavy and sour oil, which poses challenges for extraction and refining [6]