Market Overview - Pre-market futures are showing positive movement, albeit with some volatility, influenced by a new economic report and Q2 earnings releases [1] - Major indices are experiencing slight gains, with the Dow up 55 points, S&P 500 up 8 points, and Nasdaq up 6 points [2] - Over the past week, indices have seen increases ranging from 0.5% (Nasdaq) to 1% (S&P 500), with significant gains since April 9, including a 29% rise in the Nasdaq [2] Durable Goods Orders - Durable Goods Orders for June reported a decline of 9.3%, which was better than the expected 11.1% drop, following a revised increase of 16.5% in May [3] - Excluding transportation, Durable Goods Orders showed a slight increase of 0.2%, compared to a previous revision of 0.6% [3] - Non-Defense, ex-aircraft orders fell by 0.7%, down from a 2.0% increase in May, indicating potential impacts from changing tariff policies [4] Q2 Earnings Reports - Phillips 66 (PSX) reported Q2 earnings of $2.38 per share, exceeding estimates by 43.37%, with revenues of $33.52 billion, surpassing expectations by 9.75% [5] - AutoNation (AN) also exceeded earnings expectations with $5.46 per share, a 16.17% beat, and revenues of $6.97 billion, beating projections by 2.6% [6] - Centene (CNC) reported a significant earnings miss at -$0.16 per share, falling short of the anticipated $0.68, although revenues of $48.74 billion exceeded estimates by 11% [7] Upcoming Market Events - The upcoming week will see earnings reports from major companies, including Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, as well as a Federal Reserve meeting [8] - Jobs Week will feature key reports such as JOLTS, ADP private-sector payrolls, and the BLS Employment Situation report, with revisions to prior months being crucial [9]

Core Insights - The narrative surrounding the top stock picks has shifted dramatically from March, with a focus now on which stocks can maintain their gains and finish strong in the second half of 2025 [3] Stock Performance Summary - Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) has seen a significant decline of 32.70% year-to-date, with a recent drop of 21.25% in Q1 and 14.70% in Q2 [3] - Bloom Energy (BE) has rebounded with a 9.89% gain in Q2, although it remains below its year-to-date breakeven level [3][5] - Boeing (BA) has shown resilience with a 16.27% increase in Q2, leading to a 12.03% year-to-date gain [3][5] - Carvana (CVNA) has surged with a remarkable 51.87% gain in Q2, resulting in a 56.17% year-to-date increase [3] - CF Industries (CF) has rebounded with a 27.34% gain in Q2, bringing its year-to-date performance to 16.64% [3][6] - Coinbase Global (COIN) has experienced a significant turnaround with a 76.55% gain in Q2, leading to a 22.46% year-to-date increase [3][7] - Dell Technologies (DELL) has gained 30.27% in Q2, with a modest year-to-date increase of 3.04% [3][8] - Deutsche Bank (DB) has performed exceptionally well, with a 62.31% year-to-date gain, including a 16.11% increase in Q2 [3][8] - Nebius Group (NBIS) has surged with a 127.85% gain in Q2, resulting in a 73.83% year-to-date increase [3][9] - Rocket Lab (RKLB) has shown a 66.85% gain in Q2, leading to a 17.17% year-to-date performance [3][10] - Sea Ltd (SE) has maintained a strong performance with a 17.90% gain in Q2, resulting in a 45.00% year-to-date increase [3][11] - STMicroelectronics NV (STM) has seen a nearly 60% increase from its five-year low, supported by a price-target hike [3][12] - Roku Inc (ROKU) has only increased by 10.5% year-to-date, but a new partnership with Amazon could enhance its prospects [3][13] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - A total of 13 stocks have transitioned from negative to positive performance in Q2, with only two stocks remaining in the red [3] - The overall total return for the top picks has shifted from a loss of -163% in Q1 to a gain of approximately 271% year-to-date [3] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with lingering negative sentiment from Q1 underperformance affecting some stocks [15] - Stocks like EZPW and Rocket Lab have notable short interest, indicating potential volatility [16]

Core Insights - Thor Industries, Inc. reported earnings of $2.53 per share for Q3 fiscal 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.79 and up from $2.13 in Q3 fiscal 2024 [1] - The company achieved revenues of $2.89 billion in Q3, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.61 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.2% [1] Segmental Results - **North American Towable RVs**: Revenues reached $1,168.9 million, a 9.1% increase year-over-year, driven by higher unit shipments and net price per unit, exceeding the estimate of $979.8 million [2] - **North American Motorized RVs**: Revenues totaled $666.7 million, growing 3.1% year-over-year, also surpassing the estimate of $558.9 million. However, gross profit decreased by 2% to $70.3 million due to increased sales discounting [4] - **European RVs**: Revenues fell to $883.5 million, down 5.1% year-over-year, missing the estimate of $934.8 million. Gross profit declined by 12.3% to $142.8 million, with pretax income dropping to $46.3 million from $77.4 million in the previous year [5] Financial Performance - Gross profit for the company was $174.3 million, a 26.2% increase year-over-year, with pretax income rising to $97.6 million from $68.4 million in the prior year [3] - As of April 30, 2025, Thor had cash and cash equivalents of $508.3 million and long-term debt of $1 billion, with operating cash inflow of $257.7 million compared to $251.7 million in the same quarter of 2024 [6] Guidance - Thor reiterated its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting consolidated net sales between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, with a gross profit margin expected to be between 13.8% and 14.5%. EPS is anticipated to be in the range of $3.30 to $4 [7]

Core Insights - Carvana Co. (CVNA) achieved a record adjusted EBITDA of $488 million in Q1 2025, an increase of $253 million year over year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.5%, up 3.8 percentage points, leading the auto retail industry [1][8][10] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA quality of Carvana is high due to relatively low non-cash expenses, and the company is focused on enhancing operational efficiency through various technology and process initiatives [2][4] - Approximately 80% of adjusted EBITDA converted into GAAP operating income, resulting in a 9.3% margin [8] - Carvana anticipates sequential growth in adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 and aims for adjusted EBITDA margins of 13.5% within the next five to ten years [5][8] Industry Comparison - Other auto retailers like Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) and AutoNation, Inc. (AN) are facing challenges in maintaining healthy margins, with Lithia reporting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.4% in Q1 2025, up from 4% year over year [6][7] - AutoNation's SG&A as a percentage of gross profit increased significantly from 60% in 2021-2022 to 66.6% in 2024, indicating degrading operational efficiency [8][9] Market Performance - Carvana has outperformed the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry year to date, with shares surging 67.3% compared to the industry's growth of 1.6% [10] - From a valuation perspective, Carvana appears overvalued with a forward sales multiple of 3.66, higher than the industry's 2 [13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 EPS has increased by 83 cents each in the past 30 days, reflecting positive sentiment towards the company's future performance [15]

Carvana (CVNA) and Lithia Motors (LAD) are two major players in the U.S. auto retail sector, but they operate with very different approaches. Carvana focuses exclusively on selling used vehicles through its digital- first platform, aiming to simplify and modernize the car-buying experience. In contrast, Lithia Motors sells both new and used vehicles, combining a vast network of physical dealerships with growing digital capabilities to offer customers a full omnichannel experience. As the auto retail landsca ...