Core Insights - Used car prices are experiencing significant increases, with the Manheim Index rising 1.6% in June and a 6.3% year-over-year surge, the highest since August 2022 [1] - The increase in used car prices is attributed to Trump-era auto tariffs and a tightening supply of new vehicles, creating a demand for pre-owned cars [2][5] Market Dynamics - The uncertainty caused by proposed 25% tariffs on imported vehicles has led automakers to reduce production plans, resulting in a scarcity of new vehicles and increased demand for used cars [2] - Used vehicle inventory has dropped to a 43-day supply, significantly below normal levels, giving dealers increased pricing power and higher per-unit profits [3] Company Performance - Carvana and AutoNation are well-positioned to capitalize on the current market conditions due to their investments in online platforms and omnichannel sales strategies [4] - Carvana shares have increased over 74% year-to-date, while AutoNation has seen a nearly 26% rally, indicating strong investor interest and favorable margins [5] Investment Opportunities - The current pricing environment and expanding margins suggest that dealership stocks like Carvana and AutoNation may continue to perform well, providing a resilient investment opportunity amid tariff-related uncertainties in the new car market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Group 1 Automotive, Inc. is set to release its financial results for the second quarter of 2025 on July 24, 2025, before market opening, with a conference call scheduled for later that morning to discuss the results [1]. Group 1 Automotive Overview - Group 1 operates 259 automotive dealerships and 330 franchises across the U.S. and U.K., offering 36 brands of automobiles [3]. - The company provides a range of services including the sale of new and used cars, vehicle financing, service and insurance contracts, automotive maintenance and repair, and vehicle parts [3]. Conference Call Details - The conference call will be available via live simulcast on the internet and will have a replay available for 30 days [2]. - Participants can join the call by dialing in 10 minutes prior to the start, with specific numbers provided for domestic and international callers [2]. - A telephonic replay will be accessible until July 31, 2025, with designated numbers for domestic and international access [2].

Core Insights - Penske Automotive Group has acquired a Ferrari dealership in Modena, Italy, enhancing its luxury brand presence in the region to 29 automotive retail locations [1][2] - The new dealership is expected to generate annualized revenue of approximately $40 million [1] Company Overview - Penske Automotive Group, Inc. is a diversified international transportation services company with operations in eight countries and across four continents [2] - The company operates dealerships in various countries including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Australia, and is a major retailer of commercial trucks in North America [2] - Penske Automotive employs over 28,700 people globally and holds a 28.9% stake in Penske Transportation Solutions, which manages a large fleet of over 428,000 trucks, tractors, and trailers [2]

Core Insights - True value in investments is derived from growth rather than short-term gains, emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective [1] - Great businesses provide significant societal value and demonstrate durability, which is a key factor in their valuation [1] - Companies that offer products and services significantly superior to competitors are positioned for substantial growth [1] Group 1: Business Characteristics - Selection, convenience, and value are critical attributes sought in businesses [1] - Durability acts as a multiplier for value, with a preference for non-cyclical businesses [1] - The ability to innovate and maintain competitive advantages is essential for long-term success [1] Group 2: Revenue and Structure - Multiple revenue streams and anti-fragile business structures are preferred for resilience [1] - A business's ability to recover from adversity is a strong indicator of its durability [1] - Uniqueness is identified as the primary driver of value [1] Group 3: Management and Culture - Trust and network effects are vital for assessing a company's durability [1] - Management alignment with business interests and a focus on continuous learning are crucial for success [1] - Companies that empower employees and attract talent are more likely to thrive [1] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The best investment opportunities arise when negative news is already priced in, revealing true value [1] - Companies that can buy back shares during downturns are seen as having durable business models [1] - Price movements are influenced by expectations, with a focus on undervalued companies amidst negative sentiment [1]

Market Overview - The first half of 2025 experienced increased volatility and uncertainty due to President Trump's tariffs and a faster-than-expected cooling of inflation, leading to market recovery [1] - Recent months have shown favorable market conditions with easing trade tensions and a reduction in the Middle East crisis [1] Stock Performance and Recommendations - Optimism regarding artificial intelligence is expected to continue supporting stock prices, particularly in technology sectors [2] - Cooling inflation raises expectations for potential rate cuts starting in September 2025, contributing to a positive market outlook [2] - Stocks such as Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL), BGSF, ArcBest Corporation (ARCB), Cardinal Health (CAH), and AutoNation (AN) are recommended for monitoring as the second half of 2025 begins [2][6] Screening Strategy - A screening strategy has been developed to identify stocks based on improving broker recommendations and upward revisions in earnings estimates over the past four weeks [3] - The price/sales ratio is included as a valuation metric, focusing on companies with strong top-line performance [3] Screening Criteria - The top 75 companies with net upgrades in broker ratings over the last four weeks are identified [4] - The top 10 stocks with the highest percentage change in earnings estimates for the upcoming quarter are highlighted [4] - Companies in the bottom 10% of price-to-sales ratios are included for better valuation [4] Company Highlights - Cracker Barrel is focusing on menu innovation and pricing strategies to drive growth, introducing new offerings to attract customers [5] - BGSF has seen a 25% increase in shares over the past month and has a Zacks Rank 1, with earnings estimates rising over 300% in the last 60 days [7] - ArcBest is improving productivity and service quality, expecting a 52.1% increase in earnings per share for 2026 compared to 2025 [8] - Cardinal Health is undergoing strategic improvements to revitalize its business model, with its Medical segment expected to drive growth [9][10] - AutoNation's diversified product portfolio and strategic acquisitions support its market position, currently holding a Zacks Rank 3 [11]

Core Viewpoint - AutoNation's stock has reached a new 52-week high, indicating that the market may have fully recognized its value, yet a deeper analysis reveals that the company remains fundamentally undervalued due to its strong operational performance and strategic focus [1][2][3]. Financial Metrics - AutoNation's trailing price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is approximately 11.89, significantly lower than the S&P 500 average and about half of similar companies in the consumer cyclical sector, suggesting undervaluation [4]. - The price-to-sales ratio (P/S) stands at a low 0.28, indicating that the company's market capitalization is a small fraction of its annual revenue, which is often a sign of undervaluation [4]. Growth Potential - Wall Street analysts have a consensus rating of Moderate Buy for AutoNation, with Bank of America raising its price target to $255, indicating potential upside [4]. - The After-Sales division generated a record $568 million in gross profit in Q1 2025, providing a stable, high-margin revenue stream less sensitive to economic cycles [7]. Strategic Operations - AutoNation is expanding its finance company, AutoNation Finance (ANF), which completed its first $700 million asset-backed securitization, enhancing its profit per unit metric [8][9]. - The company repurchased $225 million of its stock in Q1 2025, reflecting management's confidence in the stock's value and reducing the number of shares outstanding, which increases earnings per share (EPS) [10][11]. Market Positioning - AutoNation's strategy focuses on high-margin operations and profitability in the used car segment, with gross profit per used vehicle increasing by 13.1% despite a slight 2% dip in same-store used vehicle sales volume [13][14]. - The company is actively acquiring dealerships, such as a $70 million acquisition in Colorado, to expand its revenue and market presence [12]. Investment Narrative - AutoNation presents a compelling case for value-oriented investors, showcasing a robust business model that generates stable profits beyond just car sales [15][16].

Group 1 - The automotive retail market has shown a mixed performance, with some calls being successful while others have not yet proven effective [1] - Crude Value Insights focuses on cash flow and companies that generate it, highlighting value and growth prospects in the oil and natural gas sector [1] - The service offers a 50+ stock model account and in-depth cash flow analyses of exploration and production (E&P) firms [2] Group 2 - Subscribers can engage in live chat discussions about the oil and gas sector, enhancing community interaction and information sharing [2] - A two-week free trial is available for new subscribers, promoting access to insights in the oil and gas industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - Stock splits can lead to significant positive returns for shares, with an average return of over 25% in the 52 weeks following a split, compared to the S&P 500's average return of under 12% [1][2] Group 1: O'Reilly Automotive - O'Reilly Automotive executed a 15-for-1 stock split, reducing its share price by over 93% from above $1,300 to around $89, making it more accessible for retail investors [3][4][5] - The current price forecast for O'Reilly Automotive is $94.30, indicating a potential upside of 7.36% based on 18 analyst ratings [3][5] Group 2: Interactive Brokers Group - Interactive Brokers performed a 4-for-1 stock split, lowering its share price from just over $200 to around $52, which increases accessibility but may have a limited positive impact [6][8] - The 12-month stock price forecast for Interactive Brokers is $53.38, suggesting a modest upside of 0.55% based on 8 analyst ratings [6][9] Group 3: Pegasystems - Pegasystems executed a 2-for-1 stock split, with the share price moving from just over $100 to around $52, which does not significantly impact its valuation [10][11] - The current price forecast for Pegasystems is $53.36, indicating a potential upside of 4.18% based on 12 analyst ratings [10][11] - Pegasystems has seen substantial growth, with annual contracted revenues increasing over three times to $1.4 billion and free cash flow margins exceeding 42% [12] - The company's GenAI Blueprint tool is expected to drive significant adoption in the second half of 2025, which could enhance its stock performance beyond the effects of the stock split [13][15]

©2025 Carvana, LLC William Blair 45th Annual Growth Stock Conference June 4, 2025 Safe Harbor Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including statements regarding our future results of operations, financial condition, business strategy, plans, and objectives, are forward-looking statements. These statements may be preceded by, followe ...

Core Viewpoint - Carvana Inc. has made a significant recovery from near collapse in 2022, with its stock increasing over 1000% in 2023 and an additional 284% last year, outperforming peers in the used car retail industry [1][4]. Financial Performance - Carvana's stock has surged 59% year-to-date, significantly outperforming competitors like CarMax and Lithia Motors, which saw declines of 15% and 5% respectively [1][7]. - The company has achieved the highest adjusted EBITDA margin among public car dealers at 11.5% [4][7]. - In the last reported quarter, Carvana's retail sales increased by 46% year-over-year, and earnings per share more than doubled [12]. Strategic Initiatives - The turnaround is attributed to a 2023 debt restructuring and a strategic shift towards operational efficiency rather than aggressive growth [4][10]. - Carvana aims to sell 3 million cars annually and achieve a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin in the long term [7][10]. - The acquisition of ADESA's U.S. operations is expected to enhance Carvana's reconditioning capacity, potentially doubling it to 3 million units annually [14]. Market Position and Valuation - Carvana is currently trading at a forward sales multiple of 3.41, which is significantly higher than industry averages and its own five-year average [7][10]. - Despite its high valuation, the premium reflects strong growth expectations and improving profitability [10][17]. Operational Efficiency - The company has streamlined operations, optimizing logistics and reducing costs, which has contributed to improved margins [13]. - In the last quarter, adjusted EBITDA reached a record $488 million, with gross profit per unit improving by 8% [13]. Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 32% growth in sales and a 214% increase in EPS for 2025 [16]. - Management's confidence in sustaining performance is evident, with a focus on meeting targets while managing debt levels [15][17].