Core Insights - Klarna has successfully gone public on the New York Stock Exchange, with its stock price increasing by 30% on debut, reaching $52 per share, which gives the company a valuation of $15.1 billion and raised $1.37 billion from the IPO [1][4][5] - The IPO marks a significant milestone for Klarna, which was founded in 2005 and had been hinting at going public since 2019, facing delays due to market conditions [2][4] - Klarna's valuation has seen a dramatic decline from its peak of $45.6 billion in 2021 to $6.7 billion in 2022, reflecting the challenges faced by the fintech sector [4][5] Company Overview - Klarna is a Swedish "buy now, pay later" company that has evolved significantly since its founding, with a strong consumer base and market position [5] - The company has made operational changes, including requiring remote employees to return to the office and shifting focus back to customer support roles [6] IPO Details - Klarna's IPO is the first major public offering of the fall season, with expectations of more companies following suit before year-end [3] - The IPO price of $40 per share was a significant markdown from previous valuations, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4][5] Investor Insights - Sequoia Capital emerged as the largest beneficiary of Klarna's IPO, holding a stake worth approximately $3.5 billion after the listing [9][16] - Other notable shareholders include cofounder Victor Jacobsson, whose stake is valued at $1.38 billion, and CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski, with a stake worth about $1.17 billion [17][29] - Heartland A/S, owned by billionaire Anders Holch Povlsen, holds a stake valued at $1.36 billion, while Commonwealth Bank of Australia has a stake worth $798 million [21][30] Market Context - Klarna's IPO comes amid a challenging environment for fintech companies, with rising interest rates and regulatory risks impacting investor confidence [5] - The company has faced significant losses, prompting it to set aside more capital to cover potential defaults from customers [5]

And right now we are 2 minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romaine Bostick here with Katie Greifeld taking you through to that closing bell with a global simulcast. And it starts right now.Jess Menton in the radio booth Lisa mateo by her side. Carol Massar and tim Stenovec taking a well unearned day off here on this Wednesday afternoon. Welcome to our audiences across all of our bloomberg platforms.A record setting day potentially here just for the S&P 500, though a somewhat tepid one. That's righ ...

Core Viewpoint - The IPO market is showing signs of revival as companies like StubHub and Klarna prepare for their public listings, targeting significant valuations despite a backdrop of fluctuating consumer sentiment and recent losses [2][4]. Group 1: IPO Plans and Valuations - StubHub aims for a valuation of up to $9.2 billion in its IPO, planning to raise up to $851 million by offering 34 million shares priced between $22 to $25 [2][4]. - Klarna, a prominent buy now, pay later firm, is targeting a valuation of approximately $14 billion and plans to raise around $1.3 billion through the sale of 34 million shares priced at $35 to $37 [4]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Performance - The S&P 500 has increased by 10% year-to-date, driven by positive tech earnings, which has led analysts to anticipate a resurgence in the IPO market after a quiet period since 2021 [3]. - Recent IPOs have shown volatility, with companies like Circle and Bullish experiencing significant declines from their debut highs, indicating a cautious approach for investors considering new listings [7]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Companies - StubHub reported a loss of $76 million in the first half of 2025 on revenues of $873 million, a decline from a loss of $24 million in the same period the previous year [5]. - Klarna disclosed a second-quarter loss of $53 million, which is an increase from the $18 million loss reported in the same quarter last year [5].

Core Viewpoint - Klarna aims for a valuation of $14 billion in its upcoming IPO, significantly lower than its peak valuation of $45.6 billion in June 2021, representing a 69% decline, but still above its 2022 low of $6.7 billion [3] Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - Klarna operates as a buy now, pay later (BNPL) service, where merchants pay Klarna for increased conversion rates and larger order values, unlike traditional banks that charge credit card fees [6] - The company has focused on cost-cutting and strategic adjustments in response to economic pressures, including rising inflation and tariffs [3][10] - Klarna's revenue for the six months ending June 2025 increased by 15% to $1.52 billion, but it reported a net loss of $152 million, a 390% increase in losses compared to the previous year [9] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Klarna faces intense competition from other BNPL providers such as Affirm, AfterPay, Block, and PayPal, with its quarterly revenue growth of 21% lagging behind Affirm's 33% growth [11] - Affirm's business model, which includes interest-bearing loans and a high rate of repeat customers, contrasts with Klarna's approach, which does not report repeat customer revenue [12][13] Group 3: Customer Service and Technology - Klarna's reliance on AI for customer service has led to dissatisfaction among users, prompting the company to reconsider its strategy of replacing human roles with AI [14][19] - The company previously claimed significant cost savings through AI but has since acknowledged the importance of human interaction in customer service [15][18] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is skepticism regarding the attractiveness of Klarna's IPO shares, with analysts suggesting a wait-and-see approach until the company demonstrates its ability to meet investor expectations post-IPO [4][20]

Core Viewpoint - Klarna is attempting to re-launch its IPO with a targeted valuation of $13-$14 billion, down from a previous expectation of $15 billion, but the stock is deemed unattractive for investors [3][5][38] Company Overview - Klarna provides buy now, pay later (BNPL) loans to consumers, experiencing strong revenue growth but facing challenges in profitability and competition [4][5] - The company grew its revenue by 22% compounded annually from 2022 to 2024, with a 24% year-over-year growth in 2024 and a 15% year-over-year growth in the first half of 2025 [7] Financial Performance - Despite revenue growth, Klarna's Core Earnings are declining, with a loss of -$132 million in the first half of 2025, following a previous loss of -$43 million in 2024 [7][10] - Total expenses as a percentage of revenue were 151% in 2022, decreasing to 104% in 2024, but rising again to 109% in the first half of 2025 [9] Market Trends - The BNPL industry is growing, with Klarna identifying a serviceable addressable market of $500 billion based on consumer retail and travel spending [11] - The company has the highest gross merchandise volume (GMV) among its BNPL peers, generating $112 billion in GMV compared to Affirm's $34 billion and Afterpay's $8.2 billion [13] Competitive Landscape - Klarna faces significant competition from both pure-play BNPL firms and traditional banking institutions offering similar services [19][20] - The company has the second lowest NOPAT margin and return on invested capital among its main competitors, indicating a competitive disadvantage [20][22] Valuation Concerns - The projected IPO valuation of $13.5 billion implies unrealistic growth expectations, requiring Klarna to achieve a 24% compounded annual growth rate and improve margins significantly [39][41] - Various scenarios suggest substantial downside risks to the stock, with potential valuations ranging from $6.2 billion to $10 billion based on different growth and margin improvement assumptions [42][44] Governance and Regulatory Issues - Klarna's dual-class share structure limits voting power for new investors, concentrating control with existing shareholders [32][33] - As a foreign private issuer, Klarna is exempt from certain U.S. regulatory requirements, which may reduce investor protections [34][35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is positioned well in the rapidly growing Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) market, benefiting from a high coverage rate of US e-commerce sales [1] - The analyst has a background in financial media and aims to identify undervalued companies, leveraging experience in financial markets and institutions for thorough research and analysis [1]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings delivered a strong fourth quarter, exceeding analyst expectations, resulting in an almost 11% increase in stock value [1][3][4] Financial Performance - The company reported fourth quarter revenue of $876 million, a 33% increase year over year [3] - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose by 43% to $10.4 billion [3] - Affirm achieved a GAAP net income of nearly $99 million ($0.20 per share), a turnaround from a loss of over $49 million in the previous year [3][4] Analyst Expectations - Both revenue and net income figures surpassed average analyst estimates, which were $834 million for revenue and $0.12 per share for net income [4] Market Context - The performance of Affirm contrasted sharply with the S&P 500, which declined by 0.6% during the same trading session [2] Strategic Goals - Affirm successfully met its three main goals: building a quality merchant network, increasing transaction frequency, and prioritizing excellent credit performance [5] Future Guidance - For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Affirm expects revenue between $855 million and $885 million, with GMV ranging from $10.1 billion to $10.4 billion [5] - The average analyst estimate for the first quarter revenue is slightly above $858 million [5] - The company's non-GAAP operating margin is anticipated to be between 23% and 25% [6]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) has established a unique position in the rapidly expanding Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market, emphasizing transparency and catering to both high-ticket and low-ticket purchases while providing convenient financing options [1] Company Performance - In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, total transactions increased by 45.6% year over year to 31.3 million, with a repeat transaction rate of 94%, indicating strong customer trust and loyalty [2][9] - The company reported a 36% year-over-year increase in total revenues, projecting fiscal 2025 revenues to be between $3.163 billion and $3.193 billion [3][9] - Affirm has an active merchant network of nearly 360,000 partners, which enhances its revenue potential by fostering repeat usage among customers [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors in the BNPL space include PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Sezzle Inc. (SEZL). PayPal's net revenues grew by 5% year over year, with a total payment volume increase of 6% [5] - Sezzle's total revenues surged by 76.4% year over year, with total transactions rising by 62.6% to 8.2 million and a repeat usage rate of 96.4% [6] Valuation and Estimates - Affirm's shares have gained 19.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry average increase of 17.5% [7] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for AFRM is 5.83, which is above the industry average of 5.55 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a growth of 103% compared to the previous year [11]

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) is focusing on vertical integration to enhance profitability in the competitive Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) industry, amidst regulatory pressures and high interest rates [1][4] Vertical Integration Strategy - The company is taking control of the entire BNPL value chain, including underwriting, loan origination, servicing, and collections, using its own in-house algorithm for creditworthiness assessment [2][9] - This strategy allows for better risk-based pricing, quicker approvals, and greater control over loan performance [2][9] Funding and Profitability - AFRM is increasingly relying on in-house funding, blending its balance sheet with warehouse credit funding to reduce dependence on expensive external capital, thereby improving its net interest margin [3][9] - This structural shift is expected to mitigate the impact of rising costs of funds, which pose challenges to profitability for many BNPL companies [3] Financial Performance - In Q3 of fiscal 2025, AFRM's total revenues increased by 36% year over year, and its adjusted operating margin improved by 860 basis points [4][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings indicates a growth of 101.8% compared to the previous year [11] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Block, Inc. (XYZ) have different approaches; PayPal manages the entire value chain efficiently, while Afterpay, part of Block, is less vertically integrated and relies on Block's capital access [5][6] Valuation Metrics - AFRM's shares have increased by 131.9% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 41.8% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 5.64, slightly below the industry average of 5.7 [10]

Core Insights - Both Nu Holdings (NU) and Sezzle (SEZL) are positioned in the rapidly growing fintech sector, with NU serving over 118 million customers across Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia, while SEZL focuses on providing payment solutions for the underbanked population [1][7]. Group 1: Nu Holdings (NU) - NU's cloud-centric, mobile-first infrastructure allows it to serve customers at a lower cost compared to traditional banks, contributing to a 19% year-over-year growth in customers during Q1 2025 [3]. - The company reported a 40% year-over-year growth in revenues and a 74% increase in net income for Q1 2025, with EBITDA margin rising by 440 basis points and net margin increasing by 400 basis points [4]. - NU has successfully expanded its customer base in Mexico and Colombia, with over 6 million and 1.5 million customers respectively, leveraging its scalable model to gain a first-mover advantage in these markets [5]. - Despite its strengths, NU faces competitive pressure from established players like SoFi, which could impact its market share [6]. Group 2: Sezzle (SEZL) - SEZL targets the underbanked population, with the digital payment market expected to grow at an 11.8% CAGR from 2023 to 2028, providing significant growth opportunities [7]. - The company has seen a 123.3% year-over-year increase in revenues and a 260.6% rise in operating income during Q1 2025, driven by an increase in customer purchase frequency from 4.5X to 6.5X [8]. - SEZL's product innovation, such as the On-Demand feature, enhances customer experience and flexibility, solidifying its position in the fintech space [9]. - However, the BNPL sector faces regulatory scrutiny, which could increase compliance costs and impact SEZL's customer acquisition and margins [11]. Group 3: Financial Estimates and Valuation - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NU's 2025 sales is $14.9 billion, indicating a 29.4% year-over-year growth, with earnings estimated at 54 cents per share, reflecting a 20% increase [12]. - For SEZL, the 2025 sales estimate is $441.8 million, implying a 62.9% year-over-year growth, with earnings projected at $3.26, a 77.2% rise from the previous year [13]. - NU is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 20.7X, slightly above its 12-month median, while SEZL trades at 36.97X, indicating that NU is a cheaper stock compared to SEZL [15]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - NU is considered a better investment option due to its strong financials, effective credit risk management, and lower valuation compared to SEZL, despite both companies being fundamentally strong [17][18].